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Old 05-12-2010, 08:15 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Value of Linden Dollars (& value of Linden Lab) in decline?

Since last month, the Lindex shows a steadily declining demand for L$.

Suddenly, there is a lot less people buying L$, or perhaps it is just the biggest investors pulling out.

Today the Lindex dropped in value L$1 per USD, due to the lackluster demand. The $L was valued at 259 steadily, for a long time, but now is 260 and demand for L$ looks increasingly anemic, opening it up to a much larger decline in value.

Possibly related, Sharespost shows a very recent -31.02% devaluation in LL's worth as a company. I don't understand much about how Sharespost operates though.... or what they base the values on...

Buy and Sell Linden Lab Stock, Free Linden Lab Research on SharesPost

Any ideas why these occurrences?

Anything to worry about or business as usual?

Last edited by WADE1 Jya; 05-12-2010 at 08:43 PM.
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Old 05-12-2010, 08:43 PM   #2 (permalink)
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I've certainly got my eye on it.

Every point move up on LindeX costs me 565 USD annual, around 260:1.

It's a midweek number, and as of now there's only $L 12 million at 260 ~ far, far less than a day's volume.

But even so... this kinda sucks. We are trending in the wrong way, and I think Supply Linden is near the end of its effectiveness, not selling much.

This would have nothing to do with the overall value of the company though, except in a most general way. Such as a phenomenal dip in interest in the company by customers, but, we aren't seeing that.


Recent data...

2010-05-11 261 260 77,251,058 259 262.39 270 24 7,080 2,000,000
2010-05-10 269 261 79,001,085 259 261.93 269 1 7,099 1,295,000
2010-05-09 259 259 71,897,399 259 261.65 269 1 6,290 2,000,000
2010-05-08 259 269 90,193,684 259 262.33 269 21 7,335 2,000,000
2010-05-07 259 259 86,229,623 259 261.39 269 16 6,789 1,300,000
2010-05-06 259 260 78,331,924 259 261.37 269 8 6,761 860,000
2010-05-05 259 259 88,709,278 259 262.16 269 18 7,729 2,900,000
2010-05-04 259 259 87,348,755 259 261.90 269 30 7,416 695,000
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Old 05-12-2010, 09:25 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Where can I see how much $L Supply Linden is selling? That would be an interesting metric to look at
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Old 05-12-2010, 10:24 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Desmond Shang View Post

2010-05-11 261 260 77,251,058 259 262.39 270 24 7,080 2,000,000
2010-05-10 269 261 79,001,085 259 261.93 269 1 7,099 1,295,000
2010-05-09 259 259 71,897,399 259 261.65 269 1 6,290 2,000,000
2010-05-08 259 269 90,193,684 259 262.33 269 21 7,335 2,000,000
2010-05-07 259 259 86,229,623 259 261.39 269 16 6,789 1,300,000
2010-05-06 259 260 78,331,924 259 261.37 269 8 6,761 860,000
2010-05-05 259 259 88,709,278 259 262.16 269 18 7,729 2,900,000
2010-05-04 259 259 87,348,755 259 261.90 269 30 7,416 695,000
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Old 05-13-2010, 12:19 AM   #5 (permalink)
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Fred, no I obviously don't... laughs

date, buy rate open and close, daily volume, sell rate open / average / close and min / average / max trade.

Forget it all but the volume and average sale rate.

Wade1, I don't know but I think it's in the econ stats somewhere. I bet Tyche could find it super fast.
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Old 05-13-2010, 12:26 AM   #6 (permalink)
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http://s3.amazonaws.com/static-secon..._and_sinks.xml

<field name="Description" value="Linden Lab Sales on LindeX"/>
<field name="Last Month L$ Sinks (L$)" value="0"/>
<field name="Last Month L$ Sources (L$)" value="0"/>
<field name="MTD L$ Sinks (L$)" value="0"/>
<field name="MTD L$ Sources (L$)" value="0"/>

Note that I just shifted my lindex trading range from 259/269 to 260/270, the first change in 15 months. I am keeping a *very* close eye on this right now.
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Old 05-13-2010, 04:13 AM   #7 (permalink)
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According to LL economic reports Lindex trading is always at an all-time high. If true that'd indicate there is still a demand for Linden dollars. Perhaps Daniel can tell us if it's all currency traders, but I believe things are pretty much as they've been for a long time, except that Supply Linden is no longer the way LL adds money to the supply. I believe they simply spend it in-world using bots, targeting both people who are likely to give it right back to them in tier (effectively accepting less tier rather than seeing people quit) and people they want to keep around. Supply Linden has been replaced in Lindex volume by the beneficiaries of this program. Perhaps the glut of Lindens for sale is the result of this program having a higher volume than Supply Linden ever sold.
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Old 05-13-2010, 04:21 AM   #8 (permalink)
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Yes - No Supply Linden activity since March and March was close to an all time low Supply Linden selling rate



I've only been tracking buy and Sell orders for 3 to 4 weeks now , ever since Daniel mentioned that Outstanding sell orders were at an all time high - This chart shows the total US$ value of the outstanding orders (based on the top 20 offer values) since that all time high (sampled hourly). Whilst outstanding sell orders value did decline from the high Daniel mentioned, it's since started to climb even higher whilst outstanding Buy offers have declined



EDIT: Added US$ value based on top 4 price offers as well as top 20

Actual Transaction volumes however are still reasonably stable though there may be a small downward trend


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Old 05-13-2010, 04:53 AM   #9 (permalink)
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Your source looks like a spam site to me. Like its just trying to get hits. The link to read the rest of the story did not work. And at least one other link was broken. I did not see any other source for the story. Or you have to register to see anything which I am not going to do.
A quick search on the net did not pick up any other recent stories about linden labs company value. Private companies are not required to report thier financials to the securities and exchange commision. I am thinking the Only ones that they are required to report to is the IRS.

The only things I found in my net searches were pure speculation. The comments from this article are funny though.
Mystery Inside Investor Sells Stake in Linden Lab | The Alphaville Herald
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Old 05-13-2010, 05:09 AM   #10 (permalink)
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Supply Linden is no longer the way LL adds money to the supply. I believe they simply spend it in-world using bots
Also, while I grant I have found no evidence that LL is hiding a grid shrinkage by owning estates using fake accounts, and that Anshe's expansion counter-indicates same, LL targeted spending could account for Anshe, too. If LL rents from her using bots or just plain human-controlled alts, they could effectively give her a discount and not even tell her about it. She'd just see it as demand for her rentals, and buy more islands. To the world it looks like resident activity.

By putting 8 sims to a server LL could own half the grid itself and be no worse off hosting-wise than they were at 4 per server.

Just conjecture, of course
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Old 05-13-2010, 05:32 AM   #11 (permalink)
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Yes - No Supply Linden activity since March and March was close to an all time low Supply Linden selling rate

It's dried up before and come back, so it's too soon to say it's gone away. But clearly Supply has been less active over the last year. That doesn't jive with LL's insistence that the economy continues to grow. Either sinks have shrunk by *a lot*, or Linden dollars are entering the economy through a mechanism that we haven't seen. According to the Q1 report, the Linden dollars held by residents is up 18% over 2009. Where'd it come from?
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Old 05-13-2010, 06:04 AM   #12 (permalink)
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They are - xstreet - Until March/April for a lot of data an Xstreet master account was being counted as a resident (as originally it was) Its now been reclassified correctly as a Linden Account - The flow to and from this account is the new source and sink within the economy . T Linden has more or less confirmed this is the case (sorry no link but it may have been in the Offical Qtr 1 figures discussion

This accounts for the very large rise in Other Sources & Sinks in the last two months





This reclassification is also reflected in the mean past 24 hour US$ transactions (which are meant to be resident to resident) feed which you can seen dropped to a new level following the reclassification of the account in early April.



Until this settles down and gets correctly classified it's difficult to see what is exactly going on but there definitely has been some major structural change in the economic metrics

EDIT: Whilst we are at it I may as well post Total L$ supply figures which did also drop March/April
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Old 05-13-2010, 08:12 AM   #13 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Tyche Shepherd View Post
I've only been tracking buy and Sell orders for 3 to 4 weeks now , ever since Daniel mentioned that Outstanding sell orders were at an all time high - This chart shows the total US$ value of the outstanding orders (based on the top 20 offer values) since that all time high (sampled hourly). Whilst outstanding sell orders value did decline from the high Daniel mentioned, it's since started to climb even higher whilst outstanding Buy offers have declined

The shape of the curves for buy and sell orders are odd, they seem to follow an attack/decay curve at the peaks. I could see that happening with the sell orders, as someone dumps a bunch of L$ on the market and they're gradually absorbed, but I'm not sure why the buy orders would do that.
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Old 05-13-2010, 08:37 AM   #14 (permalink)
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People are downsizing all over to drop tier liability. Of course LL will devalue the L$.

The cure for LL's issue cannot be discussed.
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Old 05-13-2010, 08:37 AM   #15 (permalink)
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I don't follow all of the elements but I do follow mainland value. You can buy PG or mature mainland for UNDER 1L a meter now. A lot of that just sits. Lowest I have seen it my entire 5 years (in August) in SL. Adult however is worth 4L a meter ++.
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Old 05-13-2010, 08:42 AM   #16 (permalink)
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The shape of the curves for buy and sell orders are odd, they seem to follow an attack/decay curve at the peaks. I could see that happening with the sell orders, as someone dumps a bunch of L$ on the market and they're gradually absorbed, but I'm not sure why the buy orders would do that.
People may line up to be one L$ worse than the first large pool, in hopes of getting a good buy/sell rate, but not having to wait a week to do it. It wouldn't be surprising if some of the third-party exchanges with worse rates were cash-out heavy and had to do significant LindeX buys to cover the imbalance.
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Old 05-13-2010, 08:48 AM   #17 (permalink)
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I don't follow all of the elements but I do follow mainland value. You can buy PG or mature mainland for UNDER 1L a meter now. A lot of that just sits.
Lots of migration to Linden Homes.

As an aside, why are so many large parcels not going to auction? For 4096m^2 and larger, it's hard to find nicely-shaped parcels at a decent price, while so many abandoned parcels have been sitting that way for a year or more.
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Old 05-13-2010, 08:55 AM   #18 (permalink)
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They are - xstreet - Until March/April for a lot of data an Xstreet master account was being counted as a resident (as originally it was) Its now been reclassified correctly as a Linden Account - The flow to and from this account is the new source and sink within the economy
That doesn't make sense at all.

1) The numbers don't add up. Total sales on xstreet was in the 200M per month range in Q1, and that graph shows new sources/sinks each in the 700M range.

2) It's completely idiotic to count xstreet *sales* as a source and sink. Most of the money collected is given right back to another resident. For accounting purposes it should be counted as a resident-to-resident transaction, with LL's cut as a sink. To do otherwise is to completely bury legitimate source/sink numbers so that they become undetectable noise in much larger numbers.

Of course that may be the point.

For comparison, Supply Linden averaged in the 100M/month range in 2009, and premium stipends are also in the 100M range.

3) It does not explain why Supply Linden is not as active. Xstreet does not manufacture Lindens. It should not be a net source. It should be a net sink. To account for a less active Supply Linden in a growing economy we should see *less* sink, not more.
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Old 05-13-2010, 09:11 AM   #19 (permalink)
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Maybe Kingdon was looking at the org chart and said "Who the fuck is this Supply Linden guy? I never see this fucker coming in to work. And not once has my ass been cleaned by this fucker even in an email! Fire this son-of-a-bitch NOW!"
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Old 05-13-2010, 09:12 AM   #20 (permalink)
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This reclassification is also reflected in the mean past 24 hour US$ transactions (which are meant to be resident to resident) feed which you can seen dropped to a new level following the reclassification of the account in early April.

This doesn't make sense, either. In Q1 resident-to-resident transactions amounted to US$160M, Lindex volume to US$31M. Xstreet sales? US$2.3M.
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Old 05-13-2010, 09:19 AM   #21 (permalink)
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I believe they simply spend it in-world using bots, targeting both people who are likely to give it right back to them in tier (effectively accepting less tier rather than seeing people quit) and people they want to keep around.
Fate Gardens has consistently put ninety percent of it's income back into the grid for five years. Perhaps they will send a few bots my way. It'll encourage me to keep the homestead, finish the updates, build some multi-packs, and list on the new XStreet when it publishes.
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Old 05-13-2010, 09:24 AM   #22 (permalink)
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Fate Gardens has consistently put ninety percent of it's income back into the grid for five years. Perhaps they will send a few bots my way.
Perhaps they already are, but it wouldn't hurt to make a few "my business is doing great...everyone just needs to try harder" posts to the forums
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Old 05-13-2010, 09:26 AM   #23 (permalink)
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I don't believe in the shopper bot conspiracy. There are a lot of people having fun and spending in SL. But they have been shunned away by the SL Mainstream merchants.

So an entire economy flourishes in SL and nobody but those in it know what is going on. And it needs to stay that way IMHO.
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Old 05-13-2010, 09:33 AM   #24 (permalink)
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That's a point, successful merchants are immersed in the commuuuuunity. Word of mouth and product descriptions, on rezzed merchandise, are still the very best advertising on The Grid All Hail The Central Grid.
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Old 05-13-2010, 10:19 AM   #25 (permalink)
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Sell orders still at 12 million as of this morning, at 260.

It's Thursday. This weekend will tell us a lot.

I'm not too worried about a slip to 260. That would represent roughly a 0.3% income loss to my estate's total cashflow, or a 1% income loss to net profits (because tier is fixed).

What I am worried about, is that without effective pressure from Supply Linden, there isn't a damn thing to prevent $L from going to 270, 280, and so forth in the short term. I remember when it fluctuated wildly in 2006 and without stabilisation, it will do so again.
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