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Old 04-20-2012, 02:59 AM   #26 (permalink)
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I caught the tail end of this report the other morning and it didn't surprise me, I gotta say. I'm also kinda smiling about it.

Argentina only started showing more than a passing interest in reclaiming the Falkland islands again once it surfaced that a couple of exploratory oil drillings around the islands coast/waters had come up with positive results. I'm no expert and have no idea what sort of reserves their talking about but I guess it shows that natural resources and the terratories that harbour them are drawing attention. Up till then, all the Falklands had going for them was "Sheep Production" and a great layover point for those destined to the south pole Halle stations etc...

We'd started to see a general sympathy begin to develop across the world stage for Argentina, with Clinton actually calling for both parties to sit down and talk about it. This after Argentina had decided to close a couple of ports to UK-related shipping traffic. The uk's always maintained that it was up to the people that live there, with them resolutely wanting to stay British.

Now though.. I'm hoping that sympathy for the Argies might start to Eb away. There's no guarantee we could win a second "War". Sure, they have pretty much the same military hardware as they had thirty years ago, but we have less. Albeit slightly more modern, and no aircraft carrier... and I'm not sure anyone would be interested in lending us one.
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Old 04-20-2012, 04:19 AM   #27 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Jahar Aabye View Post
Honestly, the more I read about Kirchner Fernandez, the more I worry about the sort of state Argentina is going to become. Populist leaders combined with extreme inflation and economic meltdown are are a disaster waiting to happen.
Erm... could we brits borrow an aircraft carrier please ? we seem to have misplaced ours...
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Old 04-20-2012, 08:09 AM   #28 (permalink)
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Well who cares about inflation? It's only interesting relatively to credit, which is not going to happen, you already explained that.
Ah, this would be the Zimbabwe Consensus? Here's a picture of actual Zimbabwean currency. I doubt anyone usesntheir $1 bills, although they might make good toilet paper, and certainly would be cheaper:




In searching fornthis image, I found that it isnactually out of date. It only goes up to the $250 million dollar bill. In 2008 they began printing the $500 million dollar bills. Thisnis not a joke. A few years ago, before they started printing the really big bills, inflation was making things so bad that you had to begin counting the bills to pay for your lunch whe you were still eating...for the few who could afford to do so. Oh dear...that was 2008, now they're printing $100 billion notes, which will buy you three eggs. I am not making this up.

I doubt that Argentina would experience that sort of hyperinflation, but it should serve as a cautionary tale. Massive inflation like that destroys savings, destorys commerce, destroys the country. It doss affect thingsnlike credit, sure, but the bigger effect is on the nation's own money supply. A "healthy" inflation amount varies depending on conditions, and deflation can be just as bad, but a healthy inflation.level might be 2-3%. Argentina's official rate is 8-10%, and that's figures from their government that nobody trusts. Unofficially, 20-25% is the generally accepted amount. From what I understand, this is accompanied (as onenmight expect) with a similar increase innprices for consumer goods. Probably the only good thing it might do is prevent people from saving their money and cause them to spend more, which is likely why you see those figures for economic growth.

The overallneffect would be as if someone cut your salary by 20-25% every year. This year you're making $40,000, life is good. Next year you're making $30,000 and things are still ok, just have to budget. Next year you're making $22,500 and you've really had to cut back. The next year you're making $17,000. And it keeps on sliding year after year.

Now imagine you're the President of a country with massove inflation. The people are getting restless. They're msrching in the streets. They want someone to blame. You're still popular, but it might not last very long. What do you do?

Maybe you can convince people that an unpopular minority group is responsible, shift their anger towards the scapegoats. Maybe there's an island offshore owned by an empire on the other side of the world, so you could blame that nation for your troubles and seize the islands, which shifts blame and makes you look like a successful leader. Oh, and you'll need to make sure you control the news sources so you can make sure that nobody prints anything critical of your rule, because that would make you look bad give aid and comfort to your the nation's the people's enemies.

Banana Republic, it's not just a chain of fashion stores.

On the bright side, so far at least Fernandez hasn't tried scapegoating any minority groups yet. She has done the other things, though, which is why our British friends are a little bit worried. It also demonstrates that she's fairly desperate, because unlike America, the British actually do have a lot of experience with the whole Empire business. Unfortunately, their navy has gotten to the point that if the Battle of Trafalgar had been fought today, it'd be won by Morrocan teenagers on jetskis, but the USA has 9 aircraft carriers and bills to pay (oh dear lord, I just had this mental image of Barak Obama as Alois Hammer).



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Wow. Well from what I understand, Zimbabwe doesn't have much pollution...
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Old 04-20-2012, 09:08 AM   #29 (permalink)
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Don't think I'd be listening to american media about this issue tbh. They reported Chavez's "crack down" on the media when what in fact happened was he closed a paper that aided the Coup in 2002. like a paper that did that would be left alone in America..
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Old 04-20-2012, 10:31 AM   #30 (permalink)
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... the British actually do have a lot of experience with the whole Empire business. Unfortunately, their navy has gotten to the point that if the Battle of Trafalgar had been fought today, it'd be won by Morrocan teenagers on jetskis, but the USA has 9 aircraft carriers and bills to pay...
I suspect that that would be the moment at which we would discover just how one-sided the much-feted (in the UK at least) 'Special Relationship' actually is...
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Old 04-20-2012, 11:48 AM   #31 (permalink)
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I suspect that that would be the moment at which we would discover just how one-sided the much-feted (in the UK at least) 'Special Relationship' actually is...
Could be worse, we could could offer you a foolproof plan: we'll trade weapons to Djibouti in exchange for money that we'll use to fund freedom fighters in Tierra Del Fuego to take back the Falklands for Britain. What could possibly go wrong?
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