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RandoymRandt · 11-22-2009, 12:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pol

The bleeding has already pretty much stopped, actually. The Dow was in the mid 6000s earlier this year, and is now up to 10300. I don't expect it will be all smooth sailing, but I do believe the overall trend is up from here to 2012. The unemployment numbers just need to get better, and they will.

As for Romney...he's vulnerable. If you think Kerry was subject to accusations of flip-flopping, you ain't seen nothing yet.

The Dow never meant much to me by way of recovery, stupid people always invest money just as much as the smart ones.

I think it's fools gold there, and will correct soon enough.

Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary

Quote:

Regional and state unemployment rates were generally little changed or
higher in October. Twenty-nine states and the District of Columbia record-
ed over-the-month unemployment rate increases, 13 states registered rate
decreases, and 8 states had no rate change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Sta-
tistics reported today. Over the year, jobless rates increased in all 50
states and the District of Columbia. The national unemployment rate rose
to 10.2 percent in October, up 0.4 percentage point from September and 3.6
points from October 2008.

And of course, these aren't the real numbers, because they're not including those who have given up, are underemployed, etc etc...

Foreclosures: Prime Borrowers Are The Latest Victims

Quote:

The foreclosure crisis likely will persist well into next year as high unemployment pushes more people out of homes, pulls down housing prices and raises concerns about the broader economic recovery.

The latest evidence was a report Thursday that a rising proportion of fixed-rate home loans made to people with good credit are sinking into foreclosure. That's a shift from last year, when riskier subprime loans drove the housing crisis.

The report from the Mortgage Bankers Association also found that 14 percent of homeowners with a mortgage were either behind on payments or in foreclosure at the end of September. It was a record-high figure for the ninth straight quarter.

The data suggest the housing market and the broader recovery will remain under pressure from the surge in home-loan defaults, especially as unemployment keeps rising. Lost jobs are the main reason homeowners are falling behind on their mortgages.

Pol · 11-22-2009, 12:41 AM

Well, a November prediction of continuing high unemployment into next year doesn't really require a crystal ball. Keep in mind we're talking about where things are going to be in 2011 and 2012.

From my own highly-anecdotal work experience as a freelancer, the first half of 2009 was slow, the second half really picked up, and November through January are going to bury me in work. My biggest client is actually increasing their marketing budget significantly for 2010 and putting me on retainer.

And as for the Dow...I'd rather have the numbers we're seeing now than the 12 year low we saw in March, that's for sure.

Aliselia Aeon · 11-22-2009, 01:01 AM

Someone was interviewed on CNN whose opinion was that what we are seeing now on the DOW is a balloon that will pop soon and that we will dive down again. They said they didn't think it would get as low as it had been, but that people should expect a big dip.

Tracer Graves · 11-22-2009, 01:03 AM

The stock market rebounding is definitely good news, and it's also a good indicator of overall market stability. Now, I think when it dropped below 7k, that was a huge undervaluing of our nation's market. It was artificially low because everyone was scared. Now, I think if the DOW moves back above 11k without at least another million jobs being created it will be an over-valuation of the market. Basically, if we haven't created 2 to 3 million new jobs by 2011-2012 and we haven't stabilized in regard to foreclosures, I think Obama is going to lose a good chunk of approval and 2012 could be a very tough race. If jobs and foreclosures DO rebound though, he will be in good shape to take on most Republican challengers. Same goes for the Democratic Congress. Obama really needs to shift the focus of his recovery to the middle class if he wants to get to that point though.

Pol · 11-22-2009, 01:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aliselia Aeon

Someone was interviewed on CNN whose opinion was that what we are seeing now on the DOW is a balloon that will pop soon and that we will dive down again. They said they didn't think it would get as low as it had been, but that people should expect a big dip.

The thing is, you can find someone who will predict almost any outcome. Check out this article from MarketWatch in 2008:

Dow heading for 16,000, Richard Band says Mark Hulbert - MarketWatch

The dude was only about 10k off, but oh well.

I'm basing my own optimism on what has been a slow, steady climb out of the financial basement since summer. That coupled with the fact that (by design) much of the government stimulus package still hasn't been deployed yet I think bodes well for 2011.

But as Tracer said, at this point it's all about those unemployment numbers.

RandoymRandt · 11-22-2009, 01:32 AM

Question. What control do you think Obama really has over unemployment?

Also, Tracer, do you think anything but a "FULL" recovery will be seen as a success given the spin machine? I'm working here with perception of course. What people will say about what he's been able to do.

I actually don't think a "full" recovery will ever happen, that ship has sailed nor was it a good ship to be on. Certainly not sustainable. But because that's not what I'd consider a likely outcome, I imagine exactly what they'll do...like I said before...

find someone popular to deliver the message of obama's failure to the people.

that person, atm, is Palin, imho.

Tracer Graves · 11-22-2009, 01:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RandoymRandt

Question. What control do you think Obama really has over unemployment?

Also, Tracer, do you think anything but a "FULL" recovery will be seen as a success given the spin machine? I'm working here with perception of course. What people will say about what he's been able to do.

I actually don't think a "full" recovery will ever happen, that ship has sailed nor was it a good ship to be on. Certainly not sustainable. But because that's not what I'd consider a likely outcome, I imagine exactly what they'll do...like I said before...

find someone popular to deliver the message of obama's failure to the people.

that person, atm, is Palin, imho.

Aside from jobs created from or not lost because of the stimulus, Obama doesn't have anything along the lines of direct control. However, if he can 'steer' our nation safely through this financial crisis long enough for the labor and housing markets to pick back up, then he will be able to claim some credit for employment levels rebounding. He's really got to do some meaningful fiscal policy though to let that happen.

In regard to the recovery itself, if there's a commercial housing bust, there could be some nasty repercussions, including another swift plummet of the stock market, along with another potential round of banks needing assistance. We need to do something proactively here, imo, to stabilize both the commercial housing/building market and the leftover toxic assets to avoid another burst bubble. If that happens on Obama's watch then people are going to be able to spin that against him with some substantial effectiveness, imo.

Now, I also think people underplay the degree to which the approach of Palin and the right will have on things. IMO, even if our economy just sort of plateaus over the next couple of years, if Palin and the which casts them as outsiders needing to be purged. Considering the nature of last year's Presidential race, I am not so sure the GOP is capable of being intelligent enough to embrace independent voters. Perhaps they'll surprise me, but this irrational wing of the GOP took control back in 2000 with GWB and it seems to be calling all the shots these days. Will that change by 2012? who knows.

Surreal · 11-22-2009, 02:13 AM

Don't underestimate how many people are going to remember that Obama and the Democratic Congress have kept unemployment insurance flowing through this mess. UI is the most direct and best ROI for any government pay outs. As I recall it's $1.65 economic stimulus for every $1 in UI paid out.

I know it's keeping the wolf off my door.

So long as the job market recovers by 2011 ... which I believe it will, with some shifts in emphasis of course, then I think the current mess won't be such an issue.

RandoymRandt · 11-22-2009, 02:13 AM

When you say commercial housing, you mean commercial real estate, yus?

I've been watchig that, in particular because of a story a while ago about the Hancockbuilding in Boston.

The Rise and Fall of Boston's Hancock Tower | Newsweek Voices - Daniel Gross | Newsweek.com

Boston's Hancock Tower and the coming commercial real estate crisis. - By Daniel Gross - Slate Magazine

Also did you lose a few words in the Palin part, or am I just unable to read tonight? It's like 110 here today, brain is melting.

RandoymRandt · 11-22-2009, 02:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Surreal

Don't underestimate how many people are going to remember that Obama and the Democratic Congress have kept unemployment insurance flowing through this mess. UI is the most direct and best ROI for any government pay outs. As I recall it's $1.65 economic stimulus for every $1 in UI paid out.

I know it's keeping the wolf off my door.

So long as the job market recovers by 2011 ... which I believe it will, with some shifts in emphasis of course, then I think the current mess won't be such an issue.

Where will the jobs come from, tho? I know I'm asking this question basically twice. Thing is, I don't see where they will come from.

I mean, dribs and drabs, yes, but what is gonna motivate that change? The economies everywhere are looking for the same thing, it's not like any other country (*well perhaps in a tiny way, the AU) are really set to do anything to help get that machine started again.

That's what I don't see changing soon, even a few years soon. Many small to mid sized businesses are just gone, forever.

Or am I a complete pessimist from the oppressive heat we have today?

Tracer Graves · 11-22-2009, 03:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Surreal

UI is the most direct and best ROI for any government pay outs. As I recall it's $1.65 economic stimulus for every $1 in UI paid out.

The return on Food Stamps is pretty high too. According to this link, the ROI is 1.73:

Want to Stimulate the Economy? Food Stamps & Unemployment Benefits are where it's at, apparently.

Tracer Graves · 11-22-2009, 03:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RandoymRandt

Where will the jobs come from, tho? I know I'm asking this question basically twice. Thing is, I don't see where they will come from.

I mean, dribs and drabs, yes, but what is gonna motivate that change? The economies everywhere are looking for the same thing, it's not like any other country (*well perhaps in a tiny way, the AU) are really set to do anything to help get that machine started again.

That's what I don't see changing soon, even a few years soon. Many small to mid sized businesses are just gone, forever.

Or am I a complete pessimist from the oppressive heat we have today?

The jobs will come in a few ways.
1)Capital Financing (investment)
2)Debt Financing (loans)
3)Stimulus funding

All of these things mean that the number of projects and expansions will go up, meaning companies are going to have to start hiring to up production.

Tracer Graves · 11-22-2009, 03:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RandoymRandt

Also did you lose a few words in the Palin part, or am I just unable to read tonight? It's like 110 here today, brain is melting.

Yeah, probably. Here's a decent guess of what I planned on saying. I lost track of all my edits.

Quote:

Now, I also think people underplay the degree to which the approach of Palin and the right will have on things. IMO, even if our economy just sort of plateaus over the next couple of years, if Palin and the GOP continue the rhetoric which casts moderates as outsiders needing to be purged, they're not going to be bringing these voters to the polls.

Arilynn · 11-22-2009, 09:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tracer Graves

The jobs will come in a few ways.
1)Capital Financing (investment)
2)Debt Financing (loans)
3)Stimulus funding

All of these things mean that the number of projects and expansions will go up, meaning companies are going to have to start hiring to up production.

I agree and think these jobs will be possible the credit markets are working again, after being frozen at the depths of the financial crisis. This is a huge turn-around.

Surreal · 11-22-2009, 01:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tracer Graves

The jobs will come in a few ways.
1)Capital Financing (investment)
2)Debt Financing (loans)
3)Stimulus funding

All of these things mean that the number of projects and expansions will go up, meaning companies are going to have to start hiring to up production.

And don't forget about all the businesses that put work on hold until the economy improved. They have capital, but are waiting to see if they need it to get through lean times.

Once they feel less shaky, on-hold projects will start back up and new projects will be launched.

Some manufacturing jobs are gone forever, but some of them are going to migrate into new sectors. We also need massive infrastructure rebuilds across the country.

Pol · 11-22-2009, 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Surreal

We also need massive infrastructure rebuilds across the country.

Speaking of which, check out the map on Recovery.gov to see how much stimulus money has yet to be awarded in part for just those kinds of projects.

Surreal · 11-22-2009, 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tracer Graves

The return on Food Stamps is pretty high too. According to this link, the ROI is 1.73:

Want to Stimulate the Economy? Food Stamps & Unemployment Benefits are where it's at, apparently.

Food stamps come with a stigma and are narrowly available.... I'd say their political impact is low.

UI on the other hand heavily impacts the working class, blue and white collar. I think the political impact is much greater.

Gigs · 11-22-2009, 06:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pol

Here are some possible talking points if things go as I predict they will:

In less than four years Obama will have turned around an economy sent into a tailspin by eight years of Republican fiscal irresponsibility.
Obama will have succeeded in getting healthcare reform passed, something any number of previous administrations have tried to do and failed.
Obama will have closed Guantanamo. Islamic terrorists will be held in US prisons, and will be tried and convicted in US courts with no ill effects. The US will have regained some semblance of the moral high ground.

.

I don't think that will happen at all.

1. I think the economy is going to remain stagnant with high inflation caused by the attempt to print our way out of this. The stock market will be up... but only because it would need to climb in order to maintain the same value as the USD devalues. Obama did nothing to end the policy of money printing and "stimulus" that Bush started... in fact he's expanded it.

2. I think something will pass. It may very well be some sort of subsidy for insurance companies and unions, but something will pass. It won't be anything like nationalized health though.

3. I agree that our foreign policy position will be much stronger. It would be hard to do worse than Bush there. Afghanistan is kind of a lose-lose situation at this point though, and we'll have either handed the country over to the Taliban or we'll have entered into another major conflict against ideological combatants that will be hard and expensive to win. We let the Taliban get a foot hold by allowing them to develop major cash crops and the network to distribute the drugs... now we have a well funded and well established adversary. Not entirely Obama's fault, but he's hesitated enough that he gets some of the blame.

Arilynn · 11-22-2009, 06:46 PM

My future dining companion Frank Rich has a good op-ed piece today about Sarah Palin, entitled "The Pit Bull in the China Shop". It ends with:

Quote:

Culture is politics. Palin is at the red-hot center of age-old American resentments that have boiled up both from the ascent of our first black president and from the intractability of the Great Recession for those Americans who haven’t benefited from bailouts. As Palin thrives on the ire of the left, so she does from the disdain of Republican leaders who, with a condescension rivaling the sexism they decry in liberals, belittle her as a lightweight or instruct her to eat think-tank spinach.

The only person who can derail Palin is Palin herself. Should she not self-destruct, she will doom G.O.P. hopes of a 2012 comeback. But the rest of the country cannot rest easy. The rage out there is larger than Palin and defies partisan labeling. Her ever-present booster Continetti, writing in The Weekly Standard, suggested that she recast the century-old populist outrage of William Jennings Bryan by adopting the message “You shall not crucify mankind upon the cross of Goldman Sachs.” If Obama can’t tamp down that rage across the political map, Palin will at the very least pave the way for a demagogue with less baggage to pick up her torch.

Gigs · 11-22-2009, 06:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tracer Graves

The return on Food Stamps is pretty high too. According to this link, the ROI is 1.73:

Want to Stimulate the Economy? Food Stamps & Unemployment Benefits are where it's at, apparently.

I've never seen such a load of horse shit. You can't calculate a ROI for government spending. That's like buying a knife for $5 in order to hold me up and steal my wallet which contained $20 and then saying that buying knives has an excellent ROI. Government spending is always money down a hole. The goal is not to make a profit.

**Bard Jameson** · 11-22-2009, 06:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gigs

I've never seen such a load of horse shit. You can't calculate a ROI for government spending. That's like buying a knife for $5 in order to hold me up and steal my wallet which contained $20 and then saying that buying knives has an excellent ROI. Government spending is always money down a hole. The goal is not to make a profit.

The $5 knife is just plant and equipment costs. It's the gumption and skill sufficient to stick someone up that is earning that $15. That's payment for the value-add.

infiniview Merit · 11-22-2009, 08:01 PM

I think i heard Keith Olbermann mention a Palin/Beck ticket and I thought he was joking.
Did she actually say that out loud, that he would be a good running mate?? Wow!

I suspect such a match up would be one of the most lopsided losses in american political history.
The fact that the republican party is not ridiculing this idea themselves is one part comedy and one part tragedy.

infiniview Merit · 11-22-2009, 08:30 PM

Imagine a Palin vs Obama debate, she would be destroyed every time.

Aliselia Aeon · 11-22-2009, 08:41 PM

I doubt she would understand much of what he said.

Sooz Pascale · 11-23-2009, 01:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tess Whitcroft

So all the Republicans need to do is run one of their

fiscally conservative
strong national defense
socially liberal
more pro worker pro consumer

candidates without losing too many of the moral majority and the big money business support.

Or they could just run a fear mongering, pro "American Family Values", anti-Obama campaign.

I wonder which way they will go...

Tess

Well said Tess!!! This is EXACTLY what they need to do IF they can find such a person. IF is the most problematic word in the English language.

Let me go back to the discussion of whther the democrats are a left or a right party? We probably all have different definitions of left and right. To me, and I know a multitude of you will disagree, a left leaning party is in favor of big government and high taxes. Sure sounds like the democrats to me. A right leaning party is in favor of big business, low wages, and is anti worker, anti consumer. Sure sounds like the Republicans to me.

Now then, finding a republican who is actually pro worker and pro consumer is a hard task. I frankly can't think of any. There are plenty who will try to self identify as such, but their track record won't support it.

I believe Tess has accurately stated what the GOP has to do in order to survive as a viable, national party. I wonder if they are able to do so?

I give them a 50-50 chance on survival.

Sooz

11-22-2009, 08:01 PM	#97 (permalink)
infiniview Merit Cell Soul Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: seattle Posts: 209 My Mood: SLShopper Ads: 5 SL Join Date: 4-27-06 Business: Texture Arts	I think i heard Keith Olbermann mention a Palin/Beck ticket and I thought he was joking. Did she actually say that out loud, that he would be a good running mate?? Wow! I suspect such a match up would be one of the most lopsided losses in american political history. The fact that the republican party is not ridiculing this idea themselves is one part comedy and one part tragedy. __________________ Texture Arts Headquarters http://slurl.com/secondlife/puea/126/10/60/ Last edited by infiniview Merit; 11-22-2009 at 08:28 PM.

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11-22-2009, 12:41 AM	#77 (permalink)
Pol Prim hair is for sissies. Moderate (previously Mature) Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Boston Posts: 943 My Mood: SL Join Date: December 18, 2003 Business: Habitabla Blog Entries: 2	Well, a November prediction of continuing high unemployment into next year doesn't really require a crystal ball. Keep in mind we're talking about where things are going to be in 2011 and 2012. From my own highly-anecdotal work experience as a freelancer, the first half of 2009 was slow, the second half really picked up, and November through January are going to bury me in work. My biggest client is actually increasing their marketing budget significantly for 2010 and putting me on retainer. And as for the Dow...I'd rather have the numbers we're seeing now than the 12 year low we saw in March, that's for sure.

11-22-2009, 01:01 AM	#78 (permalink)
Aliselia Aeon Senior Member Did I say that out loud? Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: United States (Midwest) Posts: 1,190 My Mood: SL Join Date: October 2007	Someone was interviewed on CNN whose opinion was that what we are seeing now on the DOW is a balloon that will pop soon and that we will dive down again. They said they didn't think it would get as low as it had been, but that people should expect a big dip.

11-22-2009, 01:03 AM	#79 (permalink)
Tracer Graves Senior Member Flaghumping Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 1,941 My Mood:	The stock market rebounding is definitely good news, and it's also a good indicator of overall market stability. Now, I think when it dropped below 7k, that was a huge undervaluing of our nation's market. It was artificially low because everyone was scared. Now, I think if the DOW moves back above 11k without at least another million jobs being created it will be an over-valuation of the market. Basically, if we haven't created 2 to 3 million new jobs by 2011-2012 and we haven't stabilized in regard to foreclosures, I think Obama is going to lose a good chunk of approval and 2012 could be a very tough race. If jobs and foreclosures DO rebound though, he will be in good shape to take on most Republican challengers. Same goes for the Democratic Congress. Obama really needs to shift the focus of his recovery to the middle class if he wants to get to that point though.

11-22-2009, 01:32 AM	#81 (permalink)
RandoymRandt Senior Member Consumable Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: AU Posts: 3,411 My Mood: SL Join Date: Originally June 5, 2007	Question. What control do you think Obama really has over unemployment? Also, Tracer, do you think anything but a "FULL" recovery will be seen as a success given the spin machine? I'm working here with perception of course. What people will say about what he's been able to do. I actually don't think a "full" recovery will ever happen, that ship has sailed nor was it a good ship to be on. Certainly not sustainable. But because that's not what I'd consider a likely outcome, I imagine exactly what they'll do...like I said before... find someone popular to deliver the message of obama's failure to the people. that person, atm, is Palin, imho.

11-22-2009, 02:13 AM	#84 (permalink)
RandoymRandt Senior Member Consumable Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: AU Posts: 3,411 My Mood: SL Join Date: Originally June 5, 2007	When you say commercial housing, you mean commercial real estate, yus? I've been watchig that, in particular because of a story a while ago about the Hancockbuilding in Boston. The Rise and Fall of Boston's Hancock Tower \| Newsweek Voices - Daniel Gross \| Newsweek.com Boston's Hancock Tower and the coming commercial real estate crisis. - By Daniel Gross - Slate Magazine Also did you lose a few words in the Palin part, or am I just unable to read tonight? It's like 110 here today, brain is melting.

11-22-2009, 08:30 PM	#98 (permalink)
infiniview Merit Cell Soul Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: seattle Posts: 209 My Mood: SLShopper Ads: 5 SL Join Date: 4-27-06 Business: Texture Arts	Imagine a Palin vs Obama debate, she would be destroyed every time.

11-22-2009, 08:41 PM	#99 (permalink)
Aliselia Aeon Senior Member Did I say that out loud? Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: United States (Midwest) Posts: 1,190 My Mood: SL Join Date: October 2007	I doubt she would understand much of what he said.

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