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Cindy Claveau · 11-03-2009, 10:06 AM

Watching CNN the other night, I saw a brief clip of Rush Limbaugh claiming that if the Republican Party stops pandering to the moderates and goes back to its right-wing roots, nobody can beat them.

I dismissed it as more Rush bluster, going against just about every political analysis of this country I've ever seen. The "moderates" include that big chunk of folks in the middle who can make or break a candidate. And in fact, I think it was the moderates who put Obama over the top after Bush alienated them with 8 years of stupidity.

Now I read this, and it appears the moderates are, indeed, the issue - except that the Dems want their votes and Rush doesn't think they matter:

CNN Political Ticker: All politics, all the time Blog Archive - Biden stumps for Owens, takes dig at Palin « - Blogs from CNN.com

Quote:

"We aren't asking you to switch your party," Biden said at a rally for Democrat Bill Owens in Watertown, New York Monday morning. "We are just saying join us in teaching a lesson to those absolutists who say no dissent is permitted within your own party."

The comments come a day after Republican Dede Scozzafava, who withdrew from the race Saturday amid heavy pressure from conservatives - endorsed Owens. Many high-profile Republicans, including Sarah Palin, Rush Limbaugh, and Dick Armey, have already thrown their own support behind third-party conservative candidate Doug Hoffman.

Quote:

"This is a different ideology," Biden continued. "This is different than anything I've known in my 45 years of being familiar with this district. You know, they may (not) have any room for moderate views in the Republican Party upstate anymore, but let me assure you, we have room, we have room."

Perhaps more to the point - I'm reading signs that say that the GOP's increasing stridency and rigid adherence to doctrine is squeezing out a lot of very useful, important leaders and chasing them toward the Left:

What Ever Happened to Moderate Republicans? | The American Prospect

Quote:

But by 2005, Danforth had heard enough from these new conservatives. "As a senator, I worried every day about the size of the federal deficit. I did not spend a single minute worrying about the effect of gays on the institution of marriage," he lamented. "Today it seems to be the other way around." Following the 2006 electoral debacle, Danforth joined former New Jersey governor and Environmental Protection Agency director Christine Todd Whitman and former Maryland lieutenant governor Michael Steele to revive the moderate Republican Leadership Council (RLC). Since then, Danforth has also signed up to be a board member for the Republican Main Street Partnership (RMSP), another centrist GOP national organization. Both organizations are troubled by the new conservative orthodoxy, particularly on social issues.

Arilynn · 11-03-2009, 10:43 AM

That race is interesting also because of the aggressive role the RNC is playing, even when it disagrees with local leaders. It seems like the RNC stepped in and pushed for a candidate that is more to the right than most Republicans in that district, which is a risky thing to do as it may taint its pick.

I hope the GOP finds room for more moderate candidates. Instead, they seem to be pandering to the farther right with talk about how Obama is changing the country in scary ways. It appears that they have stopped any discussion and are now just rallying their faithful, who don't need more rallying IMO. /tries not to post pic of random idiot at a Teabaggers' event

Richie Waves · 11-03-2009, 02:46 PM

Mccarthyism is back! without shame.

Richie Waves · 11-03-2009, 03:39 PM

YouTube - Rachel Maddow: Teabaggers Take Over Of The Republican Party?

Tracer Graves · 11-03-2009, 03:57 PM

hoffman called beck his mentor? wow o.0

that's some scary shite

Sooz Pascale · 11-03-2009, 04:10 PM

The GOP is committing political suicide by chasing off the moderates/centrists. Some will just stay home and not vote, some will switch to Dem or Decline to State [Independant non alligned voters], some may stay in the GOP but vote largely Dem. If the GOP hopes to survive, it must move to the center, at least on social issues. I can be wrong, but I see the winners in the next election cycle [House of Reps, Senate and Governors] as fiscal conservatives who are more liberal on social issues.

The Dems have to be careful too. The old mantras of tax and spend, gun grabbing and some other ideas favored y the far left will just chase people to the right.

What we need is a third, centrist party.

Sooz

Tracer Graves · 11-03-2009, 04:22 PM

Best quote I've heard on this whole phenomenon was by James Carville:

Quote:

"I have an announcement to make. Ronald Reagan’s big tent just collapsed in Upstate New York. It no longer exists," Democratic strategist James Carville said Sunday on CNN's "State of the Union."

Carville said the message from the NY-23 race is "if you're not our definition--if you’re not a Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, Sarah Palin directive of what constitutes a Republican, if you don’t check the necessary boxes, then they’re going to primary you….People have said this for a long time this is the kind of party they wanted, they now have it."

"I think somebody can go pick the tent up and throw it out in lake Ontario somewhere, because it don’t exist no more," Carville said.

Carville: Reagan's big tent has imploded - POLITICO Live - POLITICO.com

Ariane · 11-03-2009, 04:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sooz Pascale

What we need is a third, centrist party.

Sooz

Actually we need a third liberal party, the Dems are the centrists.

If Hoffman loses, it is bad for the right wing.

If Hoffman wins, the radical right will look to "purify" the GOP and either split the GOP in half, or cause the moderate Republicans to folow Arlen Spector's lead and jump ship

Sooz Pascale · 11-03-2009, 04:29 PM

Thanks Tracer. I think Carville may be right. I don't know Ariane...the Dems are the ones with the big tent now and they cover a wide spectrum. Without getting into the merits of the actual issues, I don't see a party more liberal than the current Dems doing well in the polls except for the NE and Northern California.

I think you are correct about what the radical right will do.

Sooz

**Bard Jameson** · 11-03-2009, 04:55 PM

Chris Hayes made a good point in that Rachel Maddow clip - that the left should be concerned about this shift, as it is about re-energizing the right wing. But I disagree with him that candidates need to come to voters with substance. I think capturing the momentum of the Tea Party and using it to ride further up the national ladder (a congressional district in this case) can be accomplished through a lot of base rhetoric.

This election will be instructive as to the viability of doing exactly that, IMO.

Gigs · 11-03-2009, 10:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tracer Graves

Best quote I've heard on this whole phenomenon was by James Carville:

Carville: Reagan's big tent has imploded - POLITICO Live - POLITICO.com

Paul's treatment at the republican national convention proved that. They actually refused to announce the delegates that he rightfully won in the primaries. The republican party isn't interested in diversity.

And this recent "shift" toward suddenly being concerned about big government... I don't think it's going to fool enough people to save them.

Tracer Graves · 11-04-2009, 01:20 AM

awwwww. Guess who just conceded?

Quote:

USA TODAY's John Fritze reports that Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman has conceded in New York to Democrat Bill Owens. He writes:

A wildly unpredictable race for a House seat in Upstate New York gave Democrats their only high-profile victory Tuesday night in a contest both parties predicted would have implications for next year's midterm election.

Democrat Bill Owens beat Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman in the down-to-the-wire race for New York's 23rd Congressional District -- portions of which have been represented by Republicans for more than a century. Hoffman conceded early Wednesday morning.

Hoffman concedes in NY special House race - On Politics - USATODAY.com

Richie Waves · 11-04-2009, 10:38 AM

Maddow called that!

jacqueline trudeau · 11-04-2009, 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sooz Pascale

Thanks Tracer. I think Carville may be right. I don't know Ariane...the Dems are the ones with the big tent now and they cover a wide spectrum. Without getting into the merits of the actual issues, I don't see a party more liberal than the current Dems doing well in the polls except for the NE and Northern California.

I think you are correct about what the radical right will do.

Sooz

If the south has their rump party (today's GOP), we (NE) can have ours too!

derevaun · 11-04-2009, 02:44 PM

This is worrying news, because eventually the GOP is going to run through the available stupid ideas and start finding workable political strategies.

They really let the wheels come off with that race, though. I used to live in that district, and while there are a lot of decent, open minded people, there's a whole lot of teabagging morons who gripe incessantly about being taxed for public services, without which they couldn't get past their own driveways half the year. It shows that a lot has to change before third party candidates do much other than spoil elections that would be easily won otherwise. So, yay Palin-Paul-2012!

Sooz Pascale · 11-04-2009, 03:16 PM

Since most of these widely reported races were back east and I am in CA I haven't paid as much attention as I should have. If you will indulge me, perhaps I can post an ill informed opinion. From my perspective it is much ado about nothing and the far right crowing over the wins in VA and NJ seems to be a big ruckus over nothing. In VA, my impression was that the Republican victor was an attractive, well groomed, well financed candidate with an impressive military record. The Democrat was an under funded small town lawyer. Correct me if I'm wrong and I'm sure you will but I see no big deal here.

In NJ the Dem was an incumbant Governor with some allegations of corruption and that familiar old devil that sticks to Dems like tar - high taxes. He was vulnerable for being an incumbant, the allegations of corruption and the tax thing. Note to Dems - people who do not work for the government DO NOT LIKE HIGH TAXES guys. Pay attention to this please.

The Dem won the congressional seat in NY because basically the GOP was having a mini civil war within that district. One again no big deal so far as any kind of weathervane.

There was a Congerssional seat picked up in CA by Lt. Gov. John Garamendi who is at least not hated. Almost all politicians in CA are thoroughly hated now by about 40% of the population. Garamendi won in a traditionally liberal bay area district. So, agan, no big deal weathervane wise.

What I get out of this election cycle other than the woeful vote on civil rights in Maine of all places, is that it is not a good time to be an incumbant. People are just plain mad.

Sooz

Cindy Claveau · 11-05-2009, 10:37 AM

This article really puts the lie to Limbaugh's assertion that going back to the rightwing roots will guarantee victory:

Campaigns of Omission | RD Blog: The Devil's Advocate | ReligionDispatches

Quote:

Virginia Democrats, particularly ones in densely populated Fairfax County, had been pleased with their showings in the last few election cycles. For the first time in decades, the county had gone blue, turning out majorities for Governor Tim Kaine in 2005 and President Obama in 2008.

Last night that trend reversed course, as Republicans took not just Fairfax but the entire commonwealth, winning races for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general by wide margins. The gubernatorial victory is particularly the apple of Pat Robertson's eye. His vision of taking over culture and politics by building an interlocking political machine, media empire, and educational system seems to have come to fruition. Bob McDonnell, a graduate of Robertson's Regent University, became governor of Virginia.

How did he win -- with a 14 percentage point margin? By not talking about the culture war his education had molded him to fight.

Early in the evening, as election results were trickling in, Jordan Sekulow, the son of Jay Sekulow, head of the Robertson-founded American Center for Law and Justice, and himself a Regent graduate, tweeted, "A warning for liberals tonight - don't mess with Regent Law." McDonnell sure didn't campaign on his Regent cred; he left that to his opponent, Creigh Deeds, who probably spent too much time pounding McDonnell's controversial graduate thesis and not enough time laying out his own platform. By letting Deeds go into anti-Regent overdrive, McDonnell managed to focus on non-culture war issues like transportation (a thorn in the side of any Fairfax County resident) and budget issues in the cash-strapped state.

Sekulow tweeted after the results were official, "called 4 Bob McDonnell here in VA - huge victory for GOP, conservatives, and Regent alums everywhere (Regent in Gov mansion)."

McDonnell, in other words, portrayed himself as a moderate while letting his opponent fight the culture war. He wasn't about to reprise his 2003 position that engaging in anal or oral sex might disquality someone from being a judge; his 1997 vote in the General Assembly against a bill that required insurance companies providing prescription coverage to cover contraception; his 2002 co-sponsorship of a bill that would have allowed physicians, pharmacists, and nurses to refuse to provide "any birth control pill;" or his legislative efforts to define some contraceptive methods as abortion. As a result, his retrograde record was subsumed into a moderate image. The hard right is the new normal.

Moral: If you can't win with honesty, win with treachery and deceit.

Gigs · 11-05-2009, 01:25 PM

I wouldn't read too much into Virginia.

Creigh Deeds wasn't a very strong candidate. I took one look at his web site and decided to vote for anyone other than him.

Har Fairweather · 11-05-2009, 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sooz Pascale

Since most of these widely reported races were back east and I am in CA I haven't paid as much attention as I should have. If you will indulge me, perhaps I can post an ill informed opinion. From my perspective it is much ado about nothing and the far right crowing over the wins in VA and NJ seems to be a big ruckus over nothing. In VA, my impression was that the Republican victor was an attractive, well groomed, well financed candidate with an impressive military record. The Democrat was an under funded small town lawyer. Correct me if I'm wrong and I'm sure you will but I see no big deal here.

In NJ the Dem was an incumbant Governor with some allegations of corruption and that familiar old devil that sticks to Dems like tar - high taxes. He was vulnerable for being an incumbant, the allegations of corruption and the tax thing. Note to Dems - people who do not work for the government DO NOT LIKE HIGH TAXES guys. Pay attention to this please.

The Dem won the congressional seat in NY because basically the GOP was having a mini civil war within that district. One again no big deal so far as any kind of weathervane.

There was a Congerssional seat picked up in CA by Lt. Gov. John Garamendi who is at least not hated. Almost all politicians in CA are thoroughly hated now by about 40% of the population. Garamendi won in a traditionally liberal bay area district. So, agan, no big deal weathervane wise.

What I get out of this election cycle other than the woeful vote on civil rights in Maine of all places, is that it is not a good time to be an incumbant. People are just plain mad.

Sooz

In general, your analysis seems right, but I think there are a couple of weathervane takeaways that should be disguieting to the Democrats.

First, Obama showed no sign of having coattails. The Administration campaigned loud and log for Corzine in NJ, with, Obama stumping there three times on Corzine's behalf. Result: The solid blue state he won a year ago by 10 points Corzine lost by five.

Second, the issues centered around high-tax-and-spend policies in both states, and people, especially independents (according to exit polls), reacted strongly and angrily. Not only did people think taxes were too high, and deficits too scary (NJ has an $8 billion one), but they didn't seem to think they were getting their money's worth. They were right. I think all that spells trouble brewing for the traditional tax-and-spend party.

As for Rush Limbaugh's contention - Meh. That's what both left-wing and right-wing pundits are saying: Move away from the center in our direction to win. Yeah, right. But let them continue. I think there is a hole big enough to drive an express train through for a coalition in the center adopting some of the better positions of both sides that could marginalize the extremists of the left and right. The party that goes for the center most successfully will win.

I could prove wrong, but I think the Dems are at greater risk of going too McGovern than the GOP is of going too Goldwater. With the Dems, their left wing controls both the Congress and the Democratic National Committee (where Howard Dean is chairman), and the President has a history of long and deep association with what once was known as the "rad-lib" crowd. The moderate Blue Dogs seem to be the "outsiders" among the Dems, and it is largely their numbers that are most likely to shrink in 2010.

Gigs · 11-05-2009, 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Har Fairweather

I think all that spells trouble brewing for the traditional tax-and-spend party.

As opposed to the "print money and spend party"?

Like you said, people are concerned about deficits too. Obama may not have coattails, but I think Bush still has "anti-coattails". I think people are very concerned by what's going on economically, what happened under Bush and what's continuing to happen under Obama.

Har Fairweather · 11-05-2009, 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gigs

As opposed to the "print money and spend party"?

Like you said, people are concerned about deficits too. Obama may not have coattails, but I think Bush still has "anti-coattails". I think people are very concerned by what's going on economically, what happened under Bush and what's continuing to happen under Obama.

Yes, I think so, Gigs. The Democrats tried to pin the Bush label on Governor-elect Christie in the campaign - Christie was appointed US attorney for NJ by the Bush administration and he had raised money for them - and it didn't stick at all. I think the "anti-coattails" (nice phrase!) mostly work with people who are going to vote Democrat anyway no matter what. More important, the Obama-Pelosi money-printing, taxing, and deficit-creating already are set to dwarf manyfold in one term anything Bush ever did in his two terms. And finally, as time passes, the people you can tar with the Bush brush will grow fewer, and the tar grow less important than what is happening in the present. The anti-coattails are a rapidly wasting asset.

Mocksoup Graves · 11-05-2009, 05:34 PM

Steele to target moderates? - First Read - msnbc.com

Steele to target moderates?

Quote:

Originally Posted by From the Article

"In an interview today with ABC, Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele appeared to fire off this warning shot to Republican moderates who supported the economic stimulus (like Florida Gov. Charlie Crist and Maine Sens. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins) or who might support health-care reform (like Snowe): "We'll come after you.""

Crist, of course, is competing in a Senate primary against the conservative Marco Rubio.

And we will welcome you both.

I think this pretty much sums up what James Carville was saying.

11-03-2009, 02:46 PM	#3 (permalink)
Richie Waves Joie de vivre! Is Three apples Tall Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Between Iraq and Israel Posts: 8,992 SL Join Date: 27/06/2005	Mccarthyism is back! without shame. __________________ My lastfm Oooh, Betty! the cat did a shit in the hat

11-03-2009, 04:10 PM	#6 (permalink)
Sooz Pascale Long Distance Sailor Ribald Lewdness Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Los Angeles Posts: 3,751 My Mood: SL Join Date: January 27, 2007	The GOP is committing political suicide by chasing off the moderates/centrists. Some will just stay home and not vote, some will switch to Dem or Decline to State [Independant non alligned voters], some may stay in the GOP but vote largely Dem. If the GOP hopes to survive, it must move to the center, at least on social issues. I can be wrong, but I see the winners in the next election cycle [House of Reps, Senate and Governors] as fiscal conservatives who are more liberal on social issues. The Dems have to be careful too. The old mantras of tax and spend, gun grabbing and some other ideas favored y the far left will just chase people to the right. What we need is a third, centrist party. Sooz __________________ Nothing sickens me more than the closed door of a library - Barbara Tuchman

11-03-2009, 04:55 PM	#10 (permalink)
Bard Jameson Situationally Obtuse SLU Supporter Cliqueless Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,529 My Mood: SL Join Date: 1/27/2008 Blog Entries: 1 Awards: 1	Chris Hayes made a good point in that Rachel Maddow clip - that the left should be concerned about this shift, as it is about re-energizing the right wing. But I disagree with him that candidates need to come to voters with substance. I think capturing the momentum of the Tea Party and using it to ride further up the national ladder (a congressional district in this case) can be accomplished through a lot of base rhetoric. This election will be instructive as to the viability of doing exactly that, IMO. __________________ Photogenix Flickr Stream: http://www.flickr.com/photos/34885797@N08/ Photogenix Blog - http://photogenixstudios.blogspot.com/

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11-03-2009, 10:43 AM	#2 (permalink)
Arilynn is chasing her tail Ninja of love Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 5,039 SL Join Date: July 3, 2008 Business: Wandering about in a daze. Tabbing out. Blog Entries: 5 Awards: 1	That race is interesting also because of the aggressive role the RNC is playing, even when it disagrees with local leaders. It seems like the RNC stepped in and pushed for a candidate that is more to the right than most Republicans in that district, which is a risky thing to do as it may taint its pick. I hope the GOP finds room for more moderate candidates. Instead, they seem to be pandering to the farther right with talk about how Obama is changing the country in scary ways. It appears that they have stopped any discussion and are now just rallying their faithful, who don't need more rallying IMO. /tries not to post pic of random idiot at a Teabaggers' event

11-03-2009, 03:57 PM	#5 (permalink)
Tracer Graves Senior Member Flaghumping Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 1,619 My Mood:	hoffman called beck his mentor? wow o.0 that's some scary shite

11-03-2009, 04:29 PM	#9 (permalink)
Sooz Pascale Long Distance Sailor Ribald Lewdness Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Los Angeles Posts: 3,751 My Mood: SL Join Date: January 27, 2007	Thanks Tracer. I think Carville may be right. I don't know Ariane...the Dems are the ones with the big tent now and they cover a wide spectrum. Without getting into the merits of the actual issues, I don't see a party more liberal than the current Dems doing well in the polls except for the NE and Northern California. I think you are correct about what the radical right will do. Sooz

11-04-2009, 10:38 AM	#13 (permalink)
Richie Waves Joie de vivre! Is Three apples Tall Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Between Iraq and Israel Posts: 8,992 SL Join Date: 27/06/2005	Maddow called that!

11-04-2009, 02:44 PM	#15 (permalink)
derevaun de plus ultra Edit Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: page 93 of 117 Posts: 199 My Mood: SL Join Date: February 2007	This is worrying news, because eventually the GOP is going to run through the available stupid ideas and start finding workable political strategies. They really let the wheels come off with that race, though. I used to live in that district, and while there are a lot of decent, open minded people, there's a whole lot of teabagging morons who gripe incessantly about being taxed for public services, without which they couldn't get past their own driveways half the year. It shows that a lot has to change before third party candidates do much other than spoil elections that would be easily won otherwise. So, yay Palin-Paul-2012!

11-04-2009, 03:16 PM	#16 (permalink)
Sooz Pascale Long Distance Sailor Ribald Lewdness Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Los Angeles Posts: 3,751 My Mood: SL Join Date: January 27, 2007	Since most of these widely reported races were back east and I am in CA I haven't paid as much attention as I should have. If you will indulge me, perhaps I can post an ill informed opinion. From my perspective it is much ado about nothing and the far right crowing over the wins in VA and NJ seems to be a big ruckus over nothing. In VA, my impression was that the Republican victor was an attractive, well groomed, well financed candidate with an impressive military record. The Democrat was an under funded small town lawyer. Correct me if I'm wrong and I'm sure you will but I see no big deal here. In NJ the Dem was an incumbant Governor with some allegations of corruption and that familiar old devil that sticks to Dems like tar - high taxes. He was vulnerable for being an incumbant, the allegations of corruption and the tax thing. Note to Dems - people who do not work for the government DO NOT LIKE HIGH TAXES guys. Pay attention to this please. The Dem won the congressional seat in NY because basically the GOP was having a mini civil war within that district. One again no big deal so far as any kind of weathervane. There was a Congerssional seat picked up in CA by Lt. Gov. John Garamendi who is at least not hated. Almost all politicians in CA are thoroughly hated now by about 40% of the population. Garamendi won in a traditionally liberal bay area district. So, agan, no big deal weathervane wise. What I get out of this election cycle other than the woeful vote on civil rights in Maine of all places, is that it is not a good time to be an incumbant. People are just plain mad. Sooz

11-05-2009, 01:25 PM	#18 (permalink)
Gigs Backroom Bureaucrat Is it wicked not to care? Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 4,738 Awards: 1	I wouldn't read too much into Virginia. Creigh Deeds wasn't a very strong candidate. I took one look at his web site and decided to vote for anyone other than him.

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