Jesse Barnett

Once again no Gigs. Hospitals are already swamped with REAL flu cases in numbers not seen this early in the season.

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Coffee smells like freshly ground heaven. ~Jessi Lane Adams

Merovigan

What if they're only out because they're especially scared of the swine flu by name? "OMG I have the coodies!! I have ta hide, and it's too bad I didn't get one of my cooty shots!!!" I mean, really, so few people have actually died from this thin and it's a national emergency? I don't get it.

I think a better explanation is: We ordered 250 million doses of this shit and we better use it!

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“I prefer to be true to myself, even at the hazard of incurring the ridicule of others, rather than to be false, and to incur my own abhorrence.”

Frederick Douglas

Gigs

If there ever is a real emergency, then no one will believe the CDC, after the SARS bullshit and now this.

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"It is the paramount duty of governments and of politicians to secure the wellbeing of the community under the case in the present, and not to run risks overmuch for the future" - JM Keynes

Gigs

I'm having a hard time finding any data that indicates that.

Here is the closest thing I found:



ETA- Is it just because people are more likely to go to the hospital... because they are panicked by the hype?

Asher Bertrand

One of two things is going on here.

One, you are using the word "emergency" like a straw man, setting it up to mean something you disagree with and then knocking it down. The point is not that ZOMG NATIONAL EMERGENCY WE ARE DOOOMT!!!111!!. No. The point of "declaring an emergency" is to allow health care providers to do things to prepare for an expected influx of patients - and only that. Big deal.

Or, two. You're being intentionally obtuse.

My money is on option two.

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Jesse Barnett

This is from one of my CDC bookmarks. If this is not enough then I can dig up reports from the American College of Emergency Physicians or Promed.

During the week of October 11-17, 2009, a review of the key indictors found that influenza activity continued to increase in the United States from the previous week. Below is a summary of the most recent key indicators:

• Visits to doctors for influenza-like illness (ILI) increased steeply since last week in the United States, and overall, are much higher than what is expected for this time of the year. ILI activity now is higher than what is seen during the peak of many regular flu seasons.
• Total influenza hospitalization rates for laboratory-confirmed flu are climbing and are higher than expected for this time of year.
• The proportion of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) based on the 122 Cities Report has increased and has been higher than what is expected at this time of year for two weeks. In addition, 11 flu-related pediatric deaths were reported this week; 9 of these deaths were confirmed 2009 H1N1, and two were influenza A viruses, but were not subtyped. Since April 2009, CDC has received reports of 95 laboratory-confirmed pediatric 2009 H1N1 deaths and another 7 pediatric deaths that were laboratory confirmed as influenza, but where the flu virus subtype was not determined.
• Forty-six states are reporting widespread influenza activity at this time. They are: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This many reports of widespread activity are unprecedented during seasonal flu.
• Almost all of the influenza viruses identified so far are 2009 H1N1 influenza A viruses. These viruses remain similar to the virus chosen for the 2009 H1N1 vaccine, and remain susceptible to the antiviral drugs oseltamivir and zanamivir with rare exception.

Merovigan

The early presentation probably has a lot more to do with hysteria than prevalence, virulence or communicability. Even if this new magic flu is more communicable, and it kills a few more "well" people, it's hardly deserving of the attention people are giving it. You tell me more people are going to the hospital, I say it's probably because so many people are profiting from selling them on going to the hospital. It's not as if once they get to the hospital there's the magic medicine that will make their sniffles go away.

Merovigan

AFP: Novartis says profit slips, but sees H1N1 boost

Asher Bertrand

And?

Merovigan

So basically we're making it an emergency because it could interrupt life across the country, and the government wants to get as many people immunized as possible in order to insure that as few people miss work as possible.

And we let the company sell us a product that they didn't have to test, so we could get doses as quickly as possible.

And we bought 250 million doses of this untested product.

Looks like Democrats can scare up faulty reasoning just like the Republicans can. "We're being invaded by terrorists" becomes "We're being invaded by viruses!" The end result remains the same: Let us cut corners, spend money, and not really be accountable for any of the mistakes that may come, up to and including ruining a country (Iraq) or selling you a vaccine that doesn't work.

Jesse Barnett

I am at a loss for words and dumbfounded by the stupidity. If anyone thinks this applies to them then it is meant to.

Merovigan

Just seems like a GREAT kickback to the healthcare industry.

"Ok, sorry about taking your profits...how about we scare everyone into buying a different product instead? Oh, and then there will be residual sales when people go to the hospital...like maybe they'll have a mole checked on. Or they'll buy tamiflu too!"

Or maybe this season's flu is just THAT bad....

Asher Bertrand

You realize they make a new flu vaccine EVERY DAMNED YEAR, yes?

Merovigan

The flu...OMG I'm going to die from the SNIFFLES!!!!

Merovigan

You realize there were two this year, right? And this new one comes with HUGE advertising all from public funds.

Asher Bertrand

And?

Gigs

Then why don't they call it a "national preparation for an influx of patients"?

The word emergency implies that it's an exceptional situation that is rarely, if ever, encountered. So far, that hasn't happened.

I'm not the one making up new definitions of the word here, you all are. "Emergency" has never meant "a purely procedural matter that is used to increase flexibility and release funding".

It gets even better. By declaring this emergency, it invokes Title 42, 247d-6d. "Targeted liability protections for pandemic and epidemic products and security countermeasures."

Merovigan

And nothing man...I'm going to go to the hospital now because I saw someone sneeze and I think a few of the molecules blew towards me.

Can you get the flu twice? I think I'm just going to go to the hospital every time I sneeze from now until next May.

Merovigan

I'm going to spare myself the headache and just come back in four months so I can say "I told you so, you fuckers never listen but I told you so..."

Until then...

Gigs

H1N1 Influenza A is the regular seasonal flu, not the pandemic swine flu.

Asher Bertrand

Why don't you call up your Congressman/woman if it's such a burning issue to you? So, they use a word you didn't like. Big fucking deal?

Asher Bertrand

Aren't you a wealth of disinformation?

Merovigan

Saying this implies that you don't see the difference between the government creating a new power and utilizing it and them using the "national emergency" power.

Doesn't the president get additional powers in the course of a national emergency?

Jesse Barnett

My god Gigs, where in the heck are you getting your information? It certainly is not from the CDC.

Here is another link you might like thou:

Google Flu Trends

Look at both Canada and the US for the past two weeks compared to normal yearly peaks then download the csv to look at the actual numbers. The FAQ should answer any questions you have.

Gigs

No, I'm not.

H1N1 Influenza A is the regular seasonal flu.

However, it looks like the CDC is now calling swine flu the "2009 H1N1 Influenza A" which is a confusing name. A few weeks ago they were calling it "Novel H1N1", in order to distinguish it from normal H1N1 that comes every year.