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Old 06-17-2009, 09:49 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Projection: It'll be years before jobs return to much of U.S.

A jobless recovery



better view of the map here http://www.sacbee.com/1098/story/1936416.html




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WASHINGTON — Unlike the labor market collapse that killed millions of U.S. jobs in a matter of months, the nation's return to peak employment will not be nearly as uniform nor as swift.

While signs indicate that the worst of the recession may be over, only six metropolitan areas across the country are expected to regain their pre-recession employment levels by the end of 2009, according to projections from IHS Global Insight, a leading economic forecaster.

The areas poised for a jobs rebound later this year are: Anchorage, Alaska; Champaign-Urbana, Ill.; Coeur d'Alene, Idaho; Columbia, Mo.; Laredo, Texas; and the Houma-Bayou Cane-Thibodaux areas of Louisiana.

Only five areas are expected to see a similar jobs recovery in 2010: Las Cruces, N.M. and El Paso, San Antonio and the McAllen-Edinburg-Pharr and Austin-Round Rock areas of Texas.
Projection: It'll be years before jobs return to much of U.S. | McClatchy
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Old 06-17-2009, 09:54 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Sounds like a great time to bring back those outsourced jobs from overseas.
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Old 06-17-2009, 10:11 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Those outsourced jobs are lost also, those people are also being laid off.

What industry is going to absorb all these people lost from the car industry in the fast few months?

Green energy, is not going to employ all these people.


Americans were told we had to take this stimulus, this huge massive amount of spending, that almost no one read before voting on it so we would not have doubt digit unemployment, the sky wouldn't fall, ocean burn, etc etc. Guess what it is all still happening and everyone of us, our children, grandchildren, and great grandchildren are on the hook for it and it didn't work.

I know I will sleep better tonight that the 3 jobs lost in Coeur D'Alene, Idaho will be back by the end of the year.
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Old 06-17-2009, 11:08 PM   #4 (permalink)
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What are you smoking because I'd sure like to have some.

I personally know 38 folks who would sure like to have their help desk jobs back... to say nothing of their clients who really hate dealing with the lower quality of comprehension and service delivered by the Indian help desk. And yet the company who outsourced the jobs gets government tax credits and subsidies...

Yes, we're going to go thru some hard times as we re-balance our economy. Not surprising after a 25-year looting party. I'm merely suggesting a place some of those jobs can be regained... no subsidies for corporations who outsource.
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Old 06-17-2009, 11:25 PM   #5 (permalink)
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This is why people all over the world spent so much energy in the late 90s and early 00s PROTESTING globalization.

Outsourcing didn't help anyone in the developed world other than the very wealthy - and it did it by pushing the middle classes off the table.

In the developing world, its dubious. People got jobs, but they were often on unpleasant social terms - causing notable damage to families and customs. Even in places where labor was not underpaid and put under lock and key, growth outpaced social development: ie, a wealthy but still unfree China - thereby making it HARDER not easier to someday bring those people freedom...

I'd love to bring those outsourced jobs back home. But how? Undoing Globalization is no easy feat.
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Old 06-17-2009, 11:29 PM   #6 (permalink)
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What are you smoking because I'd sure like to have some.

I personally know 38 folks who would sure like to have their help desk jobs back... to say nothing of their clients who really hate dealing with the lower quality of comprehension and service delivered by the Indian help desk. And yet the company who outsourced the jobs gets government tax credits and subsidies...

Yes, we're going to go thru some hard times as we re-balance our economy. Not surprising after a 25-year looting party. I'm merely suggesting a place some of those jobs can be regained... no subsidies for corporations who outsource.
Firms Shed India Centers to Cut Costs in Recession - WSJ.com

Look Surreal you are already winning...

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Many Western companies that opened centers in India to perform back-office tasks on the cheap have recently sold or closed those facilities, reversing a decade-long trend as companies look to slash costs and eliminate headaches during the recession.

Citigroup Inc. and insurance firms AXA SA and Aviva PLC, among others, have sold offshore computer-programming shops and other operations to companies in India over the past year. Some have received hundreds of millions of dollars for their centers, while others have sold their sites for the cost of the equipment inside. Almost always, the buyer gets a multiyear contract to provide the same services back to the seller. Other companies, including Delta Air Lines Inc. and UAL Corp., have shut down centers in India during the past few months.

The only problem is these jobs aren't coming back, they are just gone in the wind. The global economy is shrinking. Jobs are going away all over the world and they are not coming back.
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Old 06-17-2009, 11:35 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Firms Shed India Centers to Cut Costs in Recession - WSJ.com

Look Surreal you are already winning...

The only problem is these jobs aren't coming back, they are just gone in the wind. The global economy is shrinking. Jobs are going away all over the world and they are not coming back.
I deliberately chose a profession that couldn't be outsourced, so I neither win nor lose.

Necessary jobs will come back although likely fewer people will be doing more work for as long as it can be supported. My objection is corporate welfare... especially the kind which hurts the American taxpayer.
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Old 06-17-2009, 11:56 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Eboni Khan View Post
Firms Shed India Centers to Cut Costs in Recession - WSJ.com

Look Surreal you are already winning...


The only problem is these jobs aren't coming back, they are just gone in the wind. The global economy is shrinking. Jobs are going away all over the world and they are not coming back.
Short sighted greed sure is good.
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Old 06-18-2009, 12:18 AM   #9 (permalink)
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Since the Mercantile era of the 14th-15th centuries the pattern has been to exploit a fringe area for cheap labor and resources. The "globalization" era simply extended that "fringe" to an unprecedented area - it did not change the pattern.

The things that have always broken this pattern are:

A) A collapse of the dominant center by the "commoditization" of the resource being sold
B) The shrinking of the supporting "middle class" that manages the fringe area
C) war, famine, plague, major social upheval

I believe we may be witnessing a perfect storm of all three.
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Old 06-18-2009, 12:21 AM   #10 (permalink)
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Oh, hey, I know. Spend some of that stimulus package to retrain people in the health care fields that we need to create a universal healthcare plan!

I'm for it, that way my exhusband could pay child support.
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Old 06-18-2009, 08:40 AM   #11 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Eboni Khan View Post
....and it didn't work.
Who's to say it wouldn't have been much, much worse?
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Old 06-18-2009, 08:46 AM   #12 (permalink)
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Old 06-18-2009, 08:51 AM   #13 (permalink)
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Yeah, and Eboni probably.
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Old 06-18-2009, 08:54 AM   #14 (permalink)
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Who's to say it wouldn't have been much, much worse?
In all fairness, I didn't think it worked when Bush pulled this line out either. If you can't gauge your success by anything other than "IT COULD HAVE BEEN WORSE BUT WE JUST DON'T KNOW" then you're really setting the metric too low.

That said I don't think that was the only way to decide the success or failure of his program.
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Old 06-18-2009, 09:02 AM   #15 (permalink)
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Yeah, and Eboni probably.
anyone who opposes Obama..basically.

It be very interesting to see who be doing what if it was McCain running the show right now... I bet the plan would have been the very same... the only difference being no tea partys!
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Old 06-18-2009, 10:01 AM   #16 (permalink)
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In all fairness, I didn't think it worked when Bush pulled this line out either. If you can't gauge your success by anything other than "IT COULD HAVE BEEN WORSE BUT WE JUST DON'T KNOW" then you're really setting the metric too low.

That said I don't think that was the only way to decide the success or failure of his program.
Those making the "not working" claim need to show metrics to prove their case. But of course they can't unless they've figured out that "prove a negative" conundrum. In leiu of that, the only logical response is STFU about it's not working.
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Old 06-18-2009, 10:05 AM   #17 (permalink)
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This simply shows that the USA needs a proper welfare system
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Old 06-18-2009, 10:22 AM   #18 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Eboni Khan View Post
Those outsourced jobs are lost also, those people are also being laid off.

What industry is going to absorb all these people lost from the car industry in the fast few months?

Green energy, is not going to employ all these people.


Americans were told we had to take this stimulus, this huge massive amount of spending, that almost no one read before voting on it so we would not have doubt digit unemployment, the sky wouldn't fall, ocean burn, etc etc. Guess what it is all still happening and everyone of us, our children, grandchildren, and great grandchildren are on the hook for it and it didn't work.

I know I will sleep better tonight that the 3 jobs lost in Coeur D'Alene, Idaho will be back by the end of the year.
You seem to be having problems separating issues, Eboni. The massive job losses were not caused by the stimulus package. The stimulus package was a response to the economic collapse, and as the article points out the economy is already pulling out of the bottom. There are many thousands of people still employed or newly employed that owe their employment to the stimulus. I'm not entirely comfortable with the huge amount of spending either, but let's be clear about how we got into this mess in the first place, shall we? Let's also be thankful that our unemployment is only at 9%. It could have been a hell of a lot worse, and it is in many other countries whose economies were dragged down by our recklessness, which in turn was a direct result of Republican "free market solves everything" deregulation. Tanking the economy of the entire world is quite an accomplishment yet many on the right are still cheerleading for the very same idiocy that accomplished it. Cognitive dissonance much?
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Old 06-18-2009, 12:31 PM   #19 (permalink)
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I have no problem separating issues. We were told we had to pass this legislation or it would be THIS BAD, well now it is THIS BAD, and we have a massive debt in this country to pass on to our grandchildren and the debt is only getting larger because not only have we spent more than we can afford, the IRS is taking in less than normal, and oh yeah we have to beg the Chinese to invest in us and the Secretary of the Treasury of the United States was laughed at speaking in front of the Chinese because even they know we are just shuffling the chairs on the deck of the titanic.

It could be worse without the stimulus but right not we had the stimulus and it is just as bad as they told us the stimulus would avoid. Unemployment is way higher than 9%, there are so many people in jobs that are paying nothing, people doing (insert not steady bullshit here) to make ends meet, etc. I know so many people that are just barely making is on 25-35% of their previous income. The unemployment and underemployment numbers are much higher. They are bragging that unemployment claims drop at the beginning of June, what is June? The 6th month. How long can you usually get unemployment? 6 months, I would bet the drop is more related to people exhausting benefits than it is to people finding employment. Those people dropping out probably just balance all the people added that were screwed over by Chrysler, GM and the Federal govt.

Spending more than you have is never going to solve anything. Bouncing a check at the grocery store might get you food today, but you are going to pay a lot more for the groceries down the line. The bank fees, ruined reputation, closed accounts etc. That is exactly what the US is doing.

Obama ran on change is he is acting just as reckless as every 1/2 assed bureaucrat before him. Also, to be clear this can't be blamed on Obama, Bush, Clinton or any President. It can be blamed on Congress, the President can't spend money unless they okay it, and we have the same asshats sitting in congress decade after decade, clinging to their power, spending the country into oblivion and then when they finally retire or are voted it out, the cash is all in again, and fuck the people over by selling their influence to the highest bidder in the private sector.

So yeah, the US government can continue to keep kiting checks and pissing away the future of our children and grandchildren. Then when it is all to much, we can fake a civil war, as an excuse to break up the country/Federal Government, pulling a GM/Chrysler and claiming bankruptcy then we can just start over with a new government almost debt free. That is going to be the only way to get out of it, because we have more debt than we can ever pay back.

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Old 06-18-2009, 01:16 PM   #20 (permalink)
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I am with you entirely, Eboni, on this business of spending trillions of dollars we don't have and will NEVER have, just so all the congress people finally get to fund their own pet projects . . . at last! Yay! Woot.

I don't know how people handle their own personal finances, but going into debt many times your actual net worth and then being obligated to pay interest on that debt for years and years and years to come has never been a winning plan for getting out of debt.

Yeah, you have to spend money to make money sometimes, but you need to stop doing that once you are in so far your great-grandchildren will still be paying the bill. Or rather, you should have stopped before getting to that point.

But this part:

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Originally Posted by Eboni Khan View Post
I have no problem separating issues. We were told we had to pass this legislation or it would be THIS BAD, well now it is THIS BAD
Actually, it's worse.

Attached is a chart that is based on the chart provided by Obama's economic team in January, charting what they believed would be the rates of unemployment with and without the stimulus.

http://otrans.3cdn.net/45593e8ecbd339d074_l3m6bt1te.pdf

(On page 4.)

In the attached chart, in red, is the unemployment as it has so far actually turned out to be, from The May Unemployment Numbers are Here, and Worse Than Predicted Innocent Bystanders
Attached Thumbnails
Projection: It'll be years before jobs return to much of U.S.-stimulus-vs-unemployment-may2.gif  

Last edited by Cocoanut Koala; 06-18-2009 at 01:25 PM.
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Old 06-18-2009, 01:22 PM   #21 (permalink)
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Now, regarding the "it could be worse" argument, I've always been a big believer in that argument, particularly as regards diets! As in, maybe I didn't lose as much as I wanted, but it could be worse!

Cause it could.

But to study this with any sort of scientific process, one would need to point to x number of specific jobs having been created in x number of time, and I haven't found anyone who has done that (maybe someone else has).

And to further complicate things, one could then want to know if those x number of jobs were permanent, or lasted only a few months, or what.

Moreover, one would want to calculate the amount of money it took to provide those jobs. For example, did it take $750,000 of taxpayer money to come up with one $50,000 a year job, that lasts six months?

No one sensible would willingly pay for something with that sort of return.

Lacking any sort of data - at any rate, I can't find any - we simply can't know the cost of creating this or that job.

Given that, we can only look at the overall picture. And the overall picture is not at all what the people planning the stimulus had expected.

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Old 06-18-2009, 01:27 PM   #22 (permalink)
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I have no problem separating issues. We were told we had to pass this legislation or it would be THIS BAD, well now it is THIS BAD
No, THIS BAD is Great Depression-like conditions. Are we there? No, the stimulus prevented it. Is the situation as projected? No, that's because the stimulus wasn't big enough, as certain Nobel ecomomists have argued.

See, I can pull out ludicrious statements with nothing but ideology to back it as well.
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Old 06-18-2009, 01:32 PM   #23 (permalink)
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So -- the overall conclusion is we're going to be pushing the envelope of US finances which is never good. Overall debt/GDP will most surely be at 100% by the end of fiscal 2012. In addition, the interest component of the federal budget will surely increase as well. Now -- is this development fatal? No. But are we adding more stress to the system? Yes. But finally, do we have a choice? That is, is there another viable option right now? No. Fiscal conservatives (who by the way don't exist in the Republcan party's policy implementation arm) will argue to do nothing. But given the precarious nature of the economy right now that is still a recipe for economic suicide.

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Old 06-18-2009, 02:02 PM   #24 (permalink)
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Forgive me, but what I am about to type is anecdotal and based entirely on personal observation.

I grocery shop in at a WinnDixie in a small shoppling plaza about eight blocks from my house. It's not the best area but it's not the worst either.

About three weeks ago, I noticed that the mobile phone business was borded up, then about a week later I noticed the bicycle business boarded up - now all thats left in the plaza are a handful of businesses, Big Lots, WinnDixie, Firestone and a couple of take out restaurants.

Hubby and I were downtown Fort Lauderdale on Las Olas (used to be very exclusive), I was shocked at the number of businesses closed on both Las Olas street and River Front.

I'm still seeing forclosures in our neighborhood. Property values in many places have dropped as much as 50%.

Wages are dropping. In the 1980's we used to get 8-10% raises. I haven't seen one of those since 1993 and either have my co-workers.

I'm not sure that the economy is ever going to recover to levels that it once was. How could it?

Farming is mostly limited to a few very large agriculture corporations and done by machine.

We manufacture very little in this country. What we do manufacture is mostly done by machine.

Even service based jobs have been outsourced to other parts of the world. While I agree that we should eliminate any incentive an American company gets by offshoring (in fact I think we should apply disincentives), I still don't see how it's going to help that much.

Maybe we are just "re-setting" ourselves (new to old, old to new).

I think that most of the jobs that we will see in the future will probably be community based. Small community organic farms, small community hospitals and medical centers, small community banks, small community service and manufacturing business, like we had in the 1940's and 50's.

Only a few of the really big retailers will survive (Wal-Mart will probably be one that survives).

We will have a lot less money but eventually, things will cost a lot less. It's going to be painful though.

I have been in the work place 30 years and I have seen companies centralize and decentralize over and over again. I think that's kind of whats happening to our countrys economy now.
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Old 06-18-2009, 04:03 PM   #25 (permalink)
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Stimulus was not stimulus it was pet projects and they have given huge sums of money to PAC's and rebuilding the welfare state. As far as creating jobs well look at the map. US bussiness is better off waiting 4 years before hiring again or moving off shore. It is not like the inspector generals are not around monitoring the money. Oh wait they are now.
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