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**Io Zeno** · 09-18-2008, 01:44 PM

Although the rather meaningless national polls give Obama a slight bounce, where it counts it's getting very close.

Quote:

Presidential Polls Show Gains for McCain

By AC Writer

The latest presidential election polls from Real Clear Politics show Senator John McCain holding a slight lead over Senator Barack Obama in national polling. The Republican nominee has been making steady gains of late, and increasingly the so-called "swing" states are moving toward McCain.

According to the poll numbers, the Real Clear Politics national average gave McCain 46.1 percent to Obama's 45.3 percent, or a spread of just 0.8 points. For favorable ratings, the two candidates were essentially tied, with McCain at +19.8 and Obama at +19.2. The most recent Intrade Market Odds for the next president had Obama with a slight lead, 50.0 to 49.2.

In a projected count of electoral college votes, which matters for the presidential race more than national poll averages, Real Clear Politics gave 227 electoral votes to McCain and 207 electoral votes to Obama, with 104 electoral votes in the toss-up column.

Excluding toss-up data and going with current polling in battleground states, Real Clear Politics gives Obama the edge with 273 electoral votes to McCain's 265 electoral votes. Either way, this is shaping up to be a very tight race. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.

Polling statistics for battleground states showed Obama leading McCain in Michigan 47.2 to 45.2, in Pennsylvania 47.3 to 45.7, in Colorado 47.3 to 46.7, and in New Mexico 47.0 to 44.7. McCain held the lead in Ohio 47.4 to 45.0, and the two candidates were tied in Virginia with 48.0 each.

While Obama still leads in most battleground states, the race is becoming much closer and McCain has steadily been gaining ground since the close of the Republican National Convention and his selection of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate.

According to a Rasmussen report, McCain leads in another battleground state - Florida - by a margin of 49 percent to 44 percent, noting that last week's data indicated a tie in Florida. Rasmussen goes on to say that both polling and the electoral college outlook are shaping up to look nearly identical to the results of the 2004 election in which President George W. Bush defeated Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry.

Some key themes emerging from the data, according to Rasmussen: roughly 20 percent of voters in swing states say they could still change their minds before voting; in five battleground states, McCain gets more favorable ratings and is trusted more than Obama; the percentage "who would not be comfortable with Obama as President" is at least 40% in every swing state, while the same measure for McCain comes in around the mid-30s; and economic issues are at the top in all swing states.
Sources: RealClearPolitics, Rasmussen

http://www.associatedcontent.com/art...or_mccain.html

Mereille · 09-18-2008, 01:47 PM

This gives me teh sadz.

jacqueline trudeau · 09-18-2008, 01:49 PM

One thing that heartens me is that the Obama camp knows how to run a campaign for every state.

**Io Zeno** · 09-18-2008, 01:58 PM

Well we will see, like most elections I have no idea what people are thinking out there.

Dnate Mars · 09-18-2008, 02:00 PM

What is most distributing is

Quote:

For favorable ratings, the two candidates were essentially tied, with McCain at +19.8 and Obama at +19.2.

It seems that no one really like either of them.

Mereille · 09-18-2008, 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dnate Mars

What is most distributing is

It seems that no one really like either of them.

Those aren't actually bad numbers. That is the difference between the 'Favorable' answer, and the 'Unfavorable' answer, not the raw number for the 'Favorable' answer.

**Eboni Khan** · 09-18-2008, 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jacqueline trudeau

One thing that heartens me is that the Obama camp knows how to run a campaign for every state.

That is actually part of their problem. That is causing them to bleed money, because of all the payroll and infrastructure expenses. Obama went back on his word on public financing so he has to spend time fundraising instead of campaigning. We are in the middle of a financial crisis this week he was in Hollywood at $28,500 a plate dinner with a bunch of Hollywood Celebs.

Expenditures Breakdown, Barack Obama | OpenSecrets
The Weekly Standard

Quote:

The $52 million figure may not be a disaster for the Obama campaign, but it is hardly a success. Not just because it's far below what the Obama campaign projected in June. It's a disappointment because it includes general election contributions from those who had previously maxed out. Remember also that unlike the money McCain is raising, which has to be spent by the time he receives $84 million in public financing, Obama's money needs to last all the way through the election.

With a burn rate of $42 million a month, Obama's campaign can just barely sustain its current levels of spending. And what's leftover may not be adequate to run the kind of campaign he needs to win. Just consider despite all the money he's raised, Obama has been outspent on television by 3 to 1 in the last two months. All the stagecraft and theatrics has come with a hefty cost.

Quote:

In the last month, Obama has hired dozens if not hundreds of staffers, and his National Field Coordinator said the campaign anticipates deploying more than 2,000 paid staffers to every state in the country. Sending 15 paid staffers to Texas might make a good sound bite, but politically speaking, it is flushing money down the toilet. A paid staff of 2,000 is unheard of in the history of presidential elections. Consider that it's five times larger than Bush's campaign staff in 2004, which is the next biggest ever assembled. Indeed, Obama will have more people working on his campaign than President Bush currently has in the whole White House. And if Obama spends like this when he needs to raise the money himself, one can only imagine what he'll do when he can instead tap the tax coffers of the U.S. Treasury.

He seems like the type of wasteful bureaucrat we can't trust with our money.

**Io Zeno** · 09-18-2008, 02:26 PM

I'd rather a candidate spend every penny I donate to their campaign, on their campaign, rather than not use it to try to get elected and then horde it for their next Senate campaign when they lose.

Sansarya · 09-18-2008, 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eboni Khan

That is actually part of their problem. That is causing them to bleed money, because of all the payroll and infrastructure expenses. Obama went back on his word on public financing so he has to spend time furnishings instead of campaigning. We are in the middle of a financial crisis this week he was in Hollywood at $28,500 a plate dinner with a bunch of Hollywood Celebs.

Expenditures Breakdown, Barack Obama | OpenSecrets
The Weekly Standard

He seems like the type of wasteful bureaucrat we can't trust with our money.

Or the liberal type whose voters, even collectively, don't have the money power of the McCain-Palin supporters. The Rothschilds are supporting McCain, fergodssakes!

**Eboni Khan** · 09-18-2008, 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sansarya

Or the liberal type whose voters, even collectively, don't have the money power of the McCain-Palin supporters. The Rothschilds are supporting McCain, fergodssakes!

Since Obama has raised more money than anyone, that statement doesn't really add up. Then when you add in the money that Hillary raised in the primaries, we are talking about a disgusting amount of money.

Sooz Pascale · 09-18-2008, 02:43 PM

Look, of course its going to be close! 45% of the country would vote democatic even if they ran Fidel Castro. 45% of the country would vote republican even if they ran Adolf Hitler. the approximate 10% in the center will decide.

What's important, as the article mentioned, is not so much the number of votes, but WHERE they are, which state they're in. For example, I'm in California which WILL go to Obama so my vote doesn't count that much one way or another. If I lived in Ohio, NM, Michigan, FL, CO or PA it would.

Although McCain got a hug bounce by adding Sarah Palin to the ticket, he will be undone by the economy. With the exception of Jimmy Carter, the economy usually is fairly healthy during democratic administrations, at least since 1933. yes, I know, the great depression was in full swing during the 30s, but it started inthe Hoover administration and FDR along with some help from WWII brought the country out of it. People tend to vote their pocketbooks and I believe Obama wil win a very close race.

Sooz

**Eboni Khan** · 09-18-2008, 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sooz Pascale

People tend to vote their pocketbooks and I believe Obama wil win a very close race.

Sooz

Pre-9/11, I would have agreed with that. I still think that most people are more terrified of Terrorists than they are of a bad economy. The fact that gas prices should be lower in November will help McCain also.

Edav Nomad · 09-18-2008, 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sooz Pascale

Although McCain got a hug bounce by adding Sarah Palin to the ticket, he will be undone by the economy. With the exception of Jimmy Carter, the economy usually is fairly healthy during democratic administrations, at least since 1933. yes, I know, the great depression was in full swing during the 30s, but it started inthe Hoover administration and FDR along with some help from WWII brought the country out of it. People tend to vote their pocketbooks and I believe Obama wil win a very close race.

Sooz

McCain, Obama Yet To Convince Voters on Economic Crisis - Yahoo! News

Atia · 09-18-2008, 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eboni Khan

Since Obama has raised more money than anyone, that statement doesn't really add up. Then when you add in the money that Hillary raised in the primaries, we are talking about a disgusting amount of money.

I does when you consider that most of Obama's and Hillary's money has come from the shear number of contributors not the amount given by each. Conversely with the GOP it's generally the other way around.

**Eboni Khan** · 09-18-2008, 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atia

I does when you consider that most of Obama's and Hillary's money has come from the shear number of contributors not the amount given by each. Conversely with the GOP it's generally the other way around.

Right, because all those donations without zipcodes are from individuals. It still doesn't matter, in an economics downturn like we currently have it is still a disgusting amount of money to waste on political campaigns. They should all get 10 million for primaries and 50 million for general elections, no 527 and only federal funds. Then everyone will be equal and we can see what they are really made of.

jacqueline trudeau · 09-18-2008, 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eboni Khan

Right, because all those donations without zipcodes are from individuals.

Eboni will get to the bottom that yet!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eboni Khan

They should all get 10 million for primaries and 50 million for general elections, no 527 and only federal funds. Then everyone will be equal and we can see what they are really made of.

Sounds good... But I think I heard somewhere of "stifling 1st amendment expression". Now where was that..... ?

Oh here. WFT kind of libertarian are you, anyways?

Mereille · 09-18-2008, 03:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eboni Khan

Obama went back on his word on public financing so he has to spend time fundraising instead of campaigning.

Eboni, I've heard you say this time and again. But I have never heard you mention that McCain took out a friggin loan against his promise of using public financing, then broke the public finance spending limits, and only then backed out of public financing altogether.

And the current law was written....BY MCCAIN!

You're backing Barr, at least spread the criticism equally.

By the way, is it just me, or does that picture of Barr look a little like J.K. Simmons

Sooz Pascale · 09-18-2008, 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eboni Khan

Pre-9/11, I would have agreed with that. I still think that most people are more terrified of Terrorists than they are of a bad economy. The fact that gas prices should be lower in November will help McCain also.

I disageee with you. The threat of terrorist atacks is a maybe it will happen, maybe it will not sort of thing. The economy in the toilet is HERE and NOW!

Gas prices will probaly be lower in November than they were in July, BUT they are way higher than they were in 2001.

Sooz

Cindy Claveau · 09-18-2008, 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sansarya

Or the liberal type whose voters, even collectively, don't have the money power of the McCain-Palin supporters. The Rothschilds are supporting McCain, fergodssakes!

Hello, my name is George Soros.

Cindy Claveau · 09-18-2008, 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Io Zeno

Although the rather meaningless national polls give Obama a slight bounce, where it counts it's getting very close.

If it's another tie like 2000, I'm going to be hibernating for a few years. Nice knowing you guys.

**Eboni Khan** · 09-18-2008, 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mereille

Eboni, I've heard you say this time and again. But I have never heard you mention that McCain took out a friggin loan against his promise of using public financing, then broke the public finance spending limits, and only then backed out of public financing altogether.

And the current law was written....BY MCCAIN!

You're backing Barr, at least spread the criticism equally.

McCain hasn't irked the fuck out of me for the past 5 years like Obama, who I find to be the most disgusting of all politicians. There are plenty of other people here to point out ever single flaw in McCain. I will continue to concentrate my efforts of the man I dislike the most, Obama.

Anyway, what you posted is not entirely accurate.

FactCheck.org: Did John McCain borrow money using public financing as collateral?

I believe the matter is still undecided. McCain was trapped by the ridiculous laws that are campaign finance. Which, yes he helped write but overall the whole thing is completely flawed. I will actually give McCain some kuddos for trying to correct a flawed policy and ethics, something Obama has never done, questioned the establishment and actually created any change.

**Eboni Khan** · 09-18-2008, 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jacqueline trudeau

Eboni will get to the bottom that yet!

Sounds good... But I think I heard somewhere of "stifling 1st amendment expression". Now where was that..... ?

Oh here. WFT kind of libertarian are you, anyways?

I think making everyone equal is the only way to resolve this issue. I am not some bloody anarchist. I do believe in some government regulation.

**Eboni Khan** · 09-18-2008, 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cindy Claveau

If it's another tie like 2000, I'm going to be hibernating for a few years. Nice knowing you guys.

When all that ACORN voter fraud is out in the open yet again, and Republicans pull laws out that haven't been used in decades to prevent voters, yeah, its going to be ugly.

Atia · 09-18-2008, 06:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eboni Khan

McCain hasn't irked the fuck out of me for the past 5 years like Obama, who I find to be the most disgusting of all politicians. There are plenty of other people here to point out ever single flaw in McCain. I will continue to concentrate my efforts of the man I dislike the most, Obama.

Gee, I would have never guessed.

**Siobhan OFlynn** · 09-18-2008, 08:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eboni Khan

Pre-9/11, I would have agreed with that. I still think that most people are more terrified of Terrorists than they are of a bad economy. The fact that gas prices should be lower in November will help McCain also.

Voters overwhelmingly voted out Republican incumbents last fall when gas prices dipped. Americans are stupid, but they were smart enough to realize that the lower prices at the pump were a ploy to try and buy their votes. If I heard one person say it, I heard a dozen say "We all know these gas prices are because the oil companies don't want Democrats to take over the House or the Senate."

So, I don't think lower oil prices will help McSame at all.

09-18-2008, 01:47 PM	#2 (permalink)
Mereille AFK Packing Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 1,112 My Mood:	This gives me teh sadz. __________________ I don't know why I think I can manage Second Life....just look at my First Life! Gah!

09-18-2008, 01:49 PM	#3 (permalink)
jacqueline trudeau Soul Vaccinated Breakin' prims in the hot sun Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Shantytown Posts: 4,157 My Mood: SLShopper Ads: 4 SL Join Date: 07/15/2005 Business: Trudeau Classic Sailing Yachts	One thing that heartens me is that the Obama camp knows how to run a campaign for every state. __________________ Trudeau Classic Sailing Yachts

09-18-2008, 02:43 PM	#11 (permalink)
Sooz Pascale Long Distance Sailor Ribald Lewdness Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Los Angeles Posts: 3,751 My Mood: SL Join Date: January 27, 2007	Look, of course its going to be close! 45% of the country would vote democatic even if they ran Fidel Castro. 45% of the country would vote republican even if they ran Adolf Hitler. the approximate 10% in the center will decide. What's important, as the article mentioned, is not so much the number of votes, but WHERE they are, which state they're in. For example, I'm in California which WILL go to Obama so my vote doesn't count that much one way or another. If I lived in Ohio, NM, Michigan, FL, CO or PA it would. Although McCain got a hug bounce by adding Sarah Palin to the ticket, he will be undone by the economy. With the exception of Jimmy Carter, the economy usually is fairly healthy during democratic administrations, at least since 1933. yes, I know, the great depression was in full swing during the 30s, but it started inthe Hoover administration and FDR along with some help from WWII brought the country out of it. People tend to vote their pocketbooks and I believe Obama wil win a very close race. Sooz __________________ Nothing sickens me more than the closed door of a library - Barbara Tuchman

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09-18-2008, 01:58 PM	#4 (permalink)
Io Zeno Gone SLU Supporter Stoking the fires of Hell Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: New York City Posts: 17,021 My Mood: Blog Entries: 1 Awards: 1	Well we will see, like most elections I have no idea what people are thinking out there.

09-18-2008, 02:26 PM	#8 (permalink)
Io Zeno Gone SLU Supporter Stoking the fires of Hell Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: New York City Posts: 17,021 My Mood: Blog Entries: 1 Awards: 1	I'd rather a candidate spend every penny I donate to their campaign, on their campaign, rather than not use it to try to get elected and then horde it for their next Senate campaign when they lose.

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