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Old 06-12-2018, 08:21 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Trump vs. North Korea

I'm not well versed in international politics, so I'm curious about the perspective of people who are.

From what I've read this morning, Trump basically capitulated to North Korea. He gave them international recognition, easing of sanctions, and is pulling back from military exercises. In return he received vague promises that NK would de-nuke, which they've always reneged on before.

So far, I'm okay with this.

Trump blinked first, he gave Kim Jung-un a face-saving way of not blowing up stuff. Sanctions only hurt his people, not the NK government, so anything that eases them will actually help rather than hurt the people of a repressive regime. I can understand the desire to oppose the "legitimization" of a despotic regime on principle, but that opprobrium doesn't seem to have had much practical value.

If Obama had walked out of those "negotiations" with such a weak deal, the GOP would be yelling treason. But Trump can get away with an utter rout and in his own mind he will transform it into a victory. The rest of the world may gape at the weak showing of the US, but we're creating so much controversy on so many fronts that this will be buried in weeks, if not days, by yet another egregious action on Trump's part. Meanwhile, Kim Jung-un is not blowing stuff up.

What am I missing? Is there a real downside to this summit other than national pride and strutting rights?
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Old 06-12-2018, 08:38 AM   #2 (permalink)
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The only downside is that it has breathed new confidence into Trump supporters, who all seem to be of the mind that Trump has single-handedly created world peace.

But yeah, it could be a huge win for the NK people if it progresses beyond scribbled promises.
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Old 06-12-2018, 08:47 AM   #3 (permalink)
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I suppose a win for the people if it allows that murderous despot to further consolidate power? I’m talking about Kim here.
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Old 06-12-2018, 08:50 AM   #4 (permalink)
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Yet another Trump Hotel in North Korea, for tourists and the party elite?

Think of North Korea as a griefer. NK is in a box. Now they have a bigger box to play in. Not only that, NK has been given sanctions relief and a reduction in troop exercises. They will expect this from now on. It will be their "new normal", and any change contrary to their expectations will result in some kind of revenge play and it will be better resourced now.

They will keep pushing the borders, and be more aggressive because they can get away with it. That is what griefers do. America has to be the "big bully" to them because we're the only ones powerful enough to get away with it. When we abandon that leadership role NK can threaten it's weaker neighbors to give concessions or to look the other way. Corporations can also be threated, it is easier to pay tribute than to have "mysterious accidents". That makes it easier to "sanctions bust", and to transfer everything from human cargo - a lot of south and east Asian fishing is performed by slave labor - to nuclear weapons (for the right price and deniability).

Imagine an angry bobcat is trapped in the bathroom. Now it has the bathroom, hallway, and master bedroom.


Our allies understand this. But Trump will inevitably find a way for others outside of North Korea to profit from this, and once established they will throw sand in the gears of putting restrictions back in place, further paralyzing democracy for the sake of money.
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Old 06-12-2018, 08:53 AM   #5 (permalink)
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The moral of the story is: If you want USA to come crawling and give you everything you want, start building nukes.
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Old 06-12-2018, 08:58 AM   #6 (permalink)
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Trump supporters hardly need an excuse for "new confidence." They can manufacture victories out of thin air and completely ignore an ignominious capitulation to an opponent. There really isn't any way to undermine that kind of mindset.

Frankly, in the standoff with Kim Jung-un, someone had to step down.

Trump may well be the only person who could defuse the tensions with NK without the good ole boy Americans going utterly ballistic at having their balls cut off in public. He's insulated by his own bombast and his incomparable credentials as a Rich White Guy who is embraced by working class white guys.

All other presidents -- with a better understanding of world politics, not to mention their standing at home in the U.S. -- have refused to back down because it was (rightly) perceived as an utter disgrace to do so.

But "utter diisgrace" is kinda Trump's thing. He tosses it off like water off a duck's back.

I'm willing to give Trump this one. Cause Kim Jung-un isn't blowing stuff up. For god's sake, something good has got to come of the wreckage of this administration. It may not be enough to tip the scales into "Trump was worth it" but perhaps it qualifies as "not a complete and total loss".
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Old 06-12-2018, 09:02 AM   #7 (permalink)
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Honestly, I worry MORE about a NK attack somewhere now just as a way for Kim Jong-Un to 1up the idiot he is up against in this stupid dick waving contest.
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Old 06-12-2018, 09:02 AM   #8 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Ishina View Post
The moral of the story is: If you want USA to come crawling and give you everything you want, start building nukes.
As if everyone wasn't already building nukes anyway. Pakistan, India, Israel, Iran.
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Old 06-12-2018, 09:04 AM   #9 (permalink)
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Also, and I may be way off, but I vaguely recall hearing that in the eyes of NK, there is no NK and SK, its all still just Korea. So what if NK does aomething against SK now, then reminds The Asshole that they agreed to protections, and that SK is just part of Korea so they agreed to help or whatever.
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Old 06-12-2018, 09:09 AM   #10 (permalink)
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It will be "interesting" to see if NK is ready to integrate into global politics or wants to dominate the region. I'm not sure there was ever any way out of this situation. It seems to have been growing steadily worse no matter what the U.S. said or did for decades now.

This may be our worst move yet. Or the best. I suspect this will still be playing out long after I'm gone.
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Old 06-12-2018, 09:15 AM   #11 (permalink)
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No discussion of human rights, chemical and biological weapons, malware, missiles, artillery, foreign hostages and kidnappings, or supporting terrorists and criminals. We sold the farm for a vague promise of magic beans at an undisclosed date in the future.
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Old 06-12-2018, 09:36 AM   #12 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beebo Brink View Post
What am I missing? Is there a real downside to this summit other than national pride and strutting rights?
I have not had a chance to look yet at their papers (and I would not be shocked if they did not tone down the english version) but I can not see S Korea and Japan at all happy with this 'deal'. Basically we are at least stopping the joint exercises and donnie has said he wants to pull out of the peninsula. For what exactly?

What a deal. We give up on our allies for more vague aspirations N Korea has been making since the armistice.
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Old 06-12-2018, 09:40 AM   #13 (permalink)
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As if everyone wasn't already building nukes anyway. Pakistan, India, Israel, Iran.
Those countries were already known to have them or somewhere on the way to them. Now everyone will want them as a bargaining chip that was not even on our radar before.
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Old 06-12-2018, 09:58 AM   #14 (permalink)
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No discussion of human rights, chemical and biological weapons, malware, missiles, artillery, foreign hostages and kidnappings, or supporting terrorists and criminals. We sold the farm for a vague promise of magic beans at an undisclosed date in the future.
If we understand that possibly, to Trump, this entire exercise has been about getting a Nobel Peace Prize, we also understand that none of those things are consequential to him in the slightest, nor likely even what happens going forward.

Perhaps, at some point in the future, when we have different leadership we can make something real happen from this starting point. I'm not quite sure how, given that we have negated to address all of those very real issues, but maybe.
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Old 06-12-2018, 10:16 AM   #15 (permalink)
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Trump: I told Kim he could have 'the best hotels in the world'
http://thehill.com/homenews/administ...s-in-the-world

*blinks*

What's a little violation of international law when there's property to be developed under the Trump banner. Kim is starving his own people, but hey, let's develop some hotels.

A reminder of who we are cozying up to in the name of hotel building.

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An agreement is possible depending on the political will of the two sides. We know that because North Korea has agreed to rid itself of nuclear weapons four times already. In 1994, 1998, 2005 and 2008.

So if we give him a clean start, what do we find? First, he is no respecter of rules. The nuclear and ballistic missile programs that he inherited were ruled illegal again and again by the UN Security Council. He didn't step back, he actually accelerated both programs and brought them to fruition.

Second, he has no scruples. In consolidating power, he didn't just have his uncle arrested. After North Korea's official media described him as "worse than a dog", Chinese state-owned newspaper Wen Wei Po reported that Jang Song-thaek was stripped naked and fed to 120 dogs as hundreds of officials looked on. All his immediate family were killed as well, according to South Korea's state-owned newsagency.

And Kim Jong-un notoriously had his half-brother Kim Jong-nam assassinated by having VX nerve agent rubbed into his face in Kuala Lumpur airport. He had his defence chief and other top officials killed at a firing range. Not content to have them shot with rifles, he had them blasted apart with anti-aircraft guns.

Third, he has been covertly conducting cyber aggression against the US and its allies, including Australia, even as he made peace overtures. The cyber research firm McAfee said that the North Korean attack, which it named Operation GhostSecret, started in March and was probing for secrets of critical infrastructure and telecommunications.

Fourth, in recent days evidence has emerged that Kim's most concrete peace gesture is incomplete and insincere. The North Koreans refused to allow expert observers to witness the supposed destruction of the Punggye-ri nuclear test site, but it did invite foreign journalists to see the event. The underground tunnels were supposedly collapsed by large detonations, rendering future nuclear testing impossible. Expert imagery analysis published on May 31 by the specialist North Korea-watching 38north.org website raises "a number of questions" on "the issue of whether the destruction of Punggye-ri is irreversible".

Frank Pabian, Joseph Bermudez and Jack Liu offer evidence that the North Koreans may have concealed one tunnel entrance, that there may be other, deeper tunnels, than the ones disclosed, and that the complex might be readily reopened for further nuclear testing. Kim, in other words, may well be hedging. They also wonder why most of the administrative buildings at the site were shown to foreign journalists and demolished, yet the main headquarters building was concealed and kept intact.

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Old 06-12-2018, 10:48 AM   #16 (permalink)
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Those countries were already known to have them or somewhere on the way to them. Now everyone will want them as a bargaining chip that was not even on our radar before.
They're also pointing to Ukraine, who gave up their Soviet nukes and lost Crimea.
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Old 06-12-2018, 11:11 AM   #17 (permalink)
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I think it is all about making the morons administration look as good as possible, while heading towards the midterm elections.
Like Veritable already pointed out: The real important issues did not matter at all.
It is all to make 45 look great for his potential voters.
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Old 06-12-2018, 11:52 AM   #18 (permalink)
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I think Trump is a fool (tool). Kim knows this and has now made Trump into an even bigger fool (tool).

Nothing good will come of this, now that Trump has given his "permission", Kim will continue to do what ever he wants, including continuing to build nukes and use them on the US since Trump has opened the door and invited him in (along with Putin).

Frankly, I'm not even sure this "agreement" is legal or valid.
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Old 06-12-2018, 12:52 PM   #19 (permalink)
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No discussion of human rights, chemical and biological weapons, malware, missiles, artillery, foreign hostages and kidnappings, or supporting terrorists and criminals. We sold the farm for a vague promise of magic beans at an undisclosed date in the future.
We have made no progress on any of those issues in several administrations before Trump. I'm not saying Trump's actions are particularly defensible, because they're not, but I also wonder whether they make any pragmatic difference. Are future events going to be any worse than they already were going to be?

Meanwhile, at least for the short-term, the dick-waving tensions between the two bullies are eased. Kim Jung-un got something, so he doesn't need to set off a nuke just to prove he's not going to back down. And Trump seems oblivious to how much he gave away, but he's happy and not blustering about bombing NK into oblivion.

I guess I have extremely low expectations these days. It's a good day when we aren't in the middle of a nuclear attack.
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Old 06-12-2018, 01:02 PM   #20 (permalink)
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I guess I have extremely low expectations these days. It's a good day when we aren't in the middle of a nuclear attack.
Hell, I would consider it a good day if we were in one. Not just because it would end a lot of people's pain but because statistically some of the ones causing that pain would not cause more pain. It would also be perfect when you consider that some of those would have missed the last bus out of dodge because they were in something like a twitter flame war at the time.

The major downside is to the people who would survive the thing.
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Old 06-12-2018, 02:33 PM   #21 (permalink)
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This is what happens when we send an incompetent, unprepared narcissist to do the work of professionals. (I'm sorry, but I don't even think Bolton and Pompeo are "professionals" - they're both ideologues with little or no experience). This whole episode was mainly a photo op for Trump, a chance for him to pound his chest and bloviate on something he doesn't understand.

North Korea has spent its entire life since WW2 being virulently anti-West (with some due cause) and, thus, anti-South and anti-US. Nothing has happened to change that, and shaking hands and smiling will do nothing for the concentration camps, political murders and international cyberattacks we can lay at their feet.

There wasn't technically an agreement (it took 10 years and the work of hundreds of professionals and scientists to create the Iran agreement), but in Trump's mind anything that Obama did must be torn down and anything Obama didn't do, he must do quickly and cheaply just to out-do the Real President.

GOD I can't wait for this idiot to be kicked from office and some adults elected so we can spend a few years undoing every pile of crap Trump left behind him.
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Old 06-12-2018, 02:51 PM   #22 (permalink)
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We have made no progress on any of those issues in several administrations before Trump. I'm not saying Trump's actions are particularly defensible, because they're not, but I also wonder whether they make any pragmatic difference. Are future events going to be any worse than they already were going to be?
I'm not sure where NK is concerned. I really doubt it will matter much as to the eventual outcome, but it just might make it a bit worse for having given NK's corruption more resources.
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Old 06-12-2018, 04:15 PM   #23 (permalink)
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Old 06-12-2018, 04:31 PM   #24 (permalink)
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It will also make relations with South Korea and Japan worse. But they are allies so Trump won't care. But both coutries have to be concerned about an emboldened North Korea without strong security guarantees. When the shit hits the fan they will get the brunt of it.
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Old 06-12-2018, 05:26 PM   #25 (permalink)
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Trump supporters hardly need an excuse for "new confidence." They can manufacture victories out of thin air and completely ignore an ignominious capitulation to an opponent. There really isn't any way to undermine that kind of mindset.

Frankly, in the standoff with Kim Jung-un, someone had to step down.

Trump may well be the only person who could defuse the tensions with NK without the good ole boy Americans going utterly ballistic at having their balls cut off in public. He's insulated by his own bombast and his incomparable credentials as a Rich White Guy who is embraced by working class white guys.

All other presidents -- with a better understanding of world politics, not to mention their standing at home in the U.S. -- have refused to back down because it was (rightly) perceived as an utter disgrace to do so.

But "utter diisgrace" is kinda Trump's thing. He tosses it off like water off a duck's back.

I'm willing to give Trump this one. Cause Kim Jung-un isn't blowing stuff up. For god's sake, something good has got to come of the wreckage of this administration. It may not be enough to tip the scales into "Trump was worth it" but perhaps it qualifies as "not a complete and total loss".

I'm willing to give the guy points for essentially being the bull in a china shop. He basically blundered through this blindly and with about as much preparation as a kindergartner taking an exam in college, and somehow wormed his way into a deal that gives NK everything, and no "what's in it for the US", apart from 'Hey, they aren't blowing our shit up right now."


Kim will likely renege on whatever two page deal those two scribbled out, because that's just how that regime rolls. As far as Trump, let him have his Nixon/China moment, because he's probably going to get his other Nixon moment once Mueller finishes his work.
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