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Old 03-12-2018, 08:02 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Pennsylvania Special Election

Results from the next special election is only a day away now, and while there is still no guarantee that a Democrat will win this one, it is at worst so close according to polls that everyone is watching.

Trump's latest insult of Rep. Maxine Waters was made while campaigning for the Republican in an area where there is doubt he will win - even though the district went for Trump by 20+ points.

I won't credit FiveThirtyEight so much after 2016, but they have a good article to get up to speed.
Everything You Need To Know About The Pennsylvania 18th Special Election
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Old 03-12-2018, 11:49 PM   #2 (permalink)
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I refuse to get my hopes up, but I do hope all the people on the right side of history in Pennsylvania will go out and vote tomorrow.
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Old 03-13-2018, 12:06 PM   #3 (permalink)
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I refuse to get my hopes up, but I do hope all the people on the right side of history in Pennsylvania will go out and vote tomorrow.
Don't you mean the left side?

I'm not so much concerned about whether Lamb wins or loses tonight. The court has ordered a less gerrymandered district map for Pennsylvania, so his seat is only good till the end of the year. What I care about is how much of the 20-point Republican lean he can make up for this district, and what that teaches the rest of the Democratic Party about what kind of candidates and campaigns to run. Even a 15 point improvement (i.e. losing by 5% margin) means a lot of flipped seats in more competitive races. This is a coal and steel part of Pennsylvania, so it is supposed to be natural Trump territory. The fact that the race has been competitive is already a huge improvement.

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Old 03-13-2018, 01:14 PM   #4 (permalink)
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I think Koda means right as in correct, not the direction.
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Old 03-13-2018, 01:48 PM   #5 (permalink)
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I'm not so much concerned about whether Lamb wins or loses tonight. The court has ordered a less gerrymandered district map for Pennsylvania, so his seat is only good till the end of the year. What I care about is how much of the 20-point Republican lean he can make up for this district, and what that teaches the rest of the Democratic Party about what kind of candidates and campaigns to run. Even a 15 point improvement (i.e. losing by 5% margin) means a lot of flipped seats in more competitive races. This is a coal and steel part of Pennsylvania, so it is supposed to be natural Trump territory. The fact that the race has been competitive is already a huge improvement.
This is a point that has been highlighted by everyone. The fact that the race is this close is already a loss for Republicans, even if they win it.

The district as it is will not exist in November. There won't be an incumbent for the next election.

But it will be icing on the cake if latest polls are correct. I don't like to give them too much credit, but they are now predicting an outright win for Lamb tonight.
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Old 03-13-2018, 05:19 PM   #6 (permalink)
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But it will be icing on the cake if latest polls are correct. I don't like to give them too much credit, but they are now predicting an outright win for Lamb tonight.
This is the latest poll, but the margin of error is about 5%, which is about the lead they show for Lamb with a good turnout. Something I didn't know about Lamb is that his grandfather was a state party leader, so he comes from a political family.

Meanwhile, Coal Mine Closing as Special Elections Happens in District

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Old 03-13-2018, 09:19 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Old 03-13-2018, 09:23 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Lamb’s ahead, with 96% of precincts reporting, but with a slender margin.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-election.html
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Old 03-13-2018, 09:26 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Getting even slimmer, still not over.

.2% lead for Lamb, ahead by about 570 votes with 13 precincts left to report out of 593 . . .
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Old 03-13-2018, 09:29 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Old 03-13-2018, 09:35 PM   #11 (permalink)
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With difference less than 1000 while absentees are almost 7000, I don't know if it's possible to get a winner declared tonight or not.

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Old 03-13-2018, 10:12 PM   #12 (permalink)
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With only 2 of 593 precincts not reporting, Lamb leads by 847 votes:

Lamb (D) - 111,875

Saccone (R) - 111,028

Miller (L) - 1,351

Note that the Libertarian candidate got more than the difference between Lamb and Saccone. I don't know the status of absentee votes in these totals.
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Old 03-13-2018, 10:59 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Old 03-13-2018, 11:46 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Old 03-14-2018, 03:59 AM   #15 (permalink)
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Old 03-14-2018, 05:47 AM   #16 (permalink)
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I just read the D won by 20 points? Twitter tantrum yet?
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Old 03-14-2018, 07:34 AM   #17 (permalink)
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I just read the D won by 20 points?
$SYS-E-MORCOFFEE More coffee required

You may've misread - Lamb's claiming a win, in a district that Trump won by 20 points. The result here currently has a very slim margin, on the order of hundreds of votes - ie less than 1%.
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Old 03-14-2018, 07:56 AM   #18 (permalink)
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$SYS-E-MORCOFFEE More coffee required
A VMS-style error message maybe? Although I thought those started with a % sign?
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Old 03-14-2018, 08:07 AM   #19 (permalink)
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How many recounts is this going to spawn. Will we learn the answer before we all die of old age?
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Old 03-14-2018, 08:07 AM   #20 (permalink)
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A VMS-style error message maybe? Although I thought those started with a % sign?
Aack! You're quite right. It's evidently been much too long since I sat at those VT220s and DECstations.

As for the subject at hand:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-lamb-results/

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If you decided to skip watching Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District special election last night to catch an action movie or read a crime thriller instead, you picked the less exciting activity. Democrat Conor Lamb and Republican Rick Saccone ran neck and neck for most of the evening (at one point they were separated by only 95 votes), and even the Associated Press went to bed without calling the race. As of 8 a.m. Wednesday, with 100 percent of precincts reporting, Lamb leads by 641 votes, or 0.28 percentage points. And he and Democrats have claimed victory.
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Old 03-14-2018, 08:16 AM   #21 (permalink)
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No probs, I basically lived and breathed VMS for more than a decade: operator, sys manager, programmer. I still want a VMS emulator for my mac but even once it exists it will not be cheap.

I had to look the standard up. I was surprised that the examples all had commas before the first space. That just strikes me as wrong somehow.

As to the vote results so far: it always amazes me the problems people have with counting.
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Old 03-14-2018, 08:40 AM   #22 (permalink)
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I don't think the problems are generally to do with counting as such, though mistakes do happen and a bundle of tallied votes can be placed in the wrong candidate's pile, so when the final results are very close it's prudent to double-check.

More frequently, though, the problem is with disputed votes, where for whatever reason it's not clear for which candidate the voter intended to cast the ballot (remember "hanging chads"?). Generally, at least in the UK (and I think it's the same in the USA) the tellers simply put to one side ballots like that, and they aren't examined further unless the results are so close that it's likely they might make a difference.

The problem is, though, that by the time it becomes clear that they need to recheck the votes and also to go through the disputed votes one by one and agree on whether they're valid or not, it's the middle of the night and not the best time for already tired tellers and scrutineers to embark on a recount. So they generally postpone it until everyone's had some sleep.
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Old 03-14-2018, 10:50 AM   #23 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Innula Zenovka View Post

More frequently, though, the problem is with disputed votes, where for whatever reason it's not clear for which candidate the voter intended to cast the ballot (remember "hanging chads"?). Generally, at least in the UK (and I think it's the same in the USA) the tellers simply put to one side ballots like that, and they aren't examined further unless the results are so close that it's likely they might make a difference.
I don't remember the details but the hanging chads thing felt like nitpicky bull shit.

Like its obvious this hole was punched but it was "hanging" so they questioned if it counted. Just because the stupid hole punch didn't work properly shouldn't be an excuse to discard a vote.
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Old 03-14-2018, 11:49 AM   #24 (permalink)
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PA race tighter-than-tight; Dem claims win, GOP hangs in
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Old 03-14-2018, 11:59 AM   #25 (permalink)
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I don't remember the details but the hanging chads thing felt like nitpicky bull shit.

Like its obvious this hole was punched but it was "hanging" so they questioned if it counted. Just because the stupid hole punch didn't work properly shouldn't be an excuse to discard a vote.
Yes, I don't remember the details either, but I do recall it was something trivial. But that's what each side's scrutineers are going to do -- if the vote's that close, you're going to be as picky as possible to exclude the other side's votes. A lot of horse-trading goes on, at least in British election counts when it's neck and neck -- "We'll agree that one of yours if you agree this one of ours" -- with the Returning Officer making the final decision.
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