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Old 12-02-2017, 10:47 PM   #26 (permalink)
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I think their used to be a saying among some at US Strategic Command that close is good enough.
Yes, I was just thinking 'close only counts in horseshoes and with thermonuclear weapons'. Even if your target does not fall in ground zero the effective zone of bye-bye is pretty big.
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Old 12-02-2017, 11:46 PM   #27 (permalink)
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Yes, I was just thinking 'close only counts in horseshoes and with thermonuclear weapons'. Even if your target does not fall in ground zero the effective zone of bye-bye is pretty big.
Well, I'm thinking NK is only capable of a small nuke - say, just big enough to take out the Cheeto-in-Chief and the assholes who voted in that tax bill, and leave the civilian population unaffected.
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Old 12-03-2017, 02:51 AM   #28 (permalink)
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I think their used to be a saying among some at US Strategic Command that close is good enough.
Yup - "we aim for time zones" is how I heard it once.
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Old 12-03-2017, 03:28 AM   #29 (permalink)
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North Korea has nukes and itís leader is crazy enough to use them if their fragile ego is damaged in the wrong way.

Pot meet kettle.
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Old 12-03-2017, 09:10 AM   #30 (permalink)
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North Korea has nukes and itís leader is crazy enough to use them if their fragile ego is damaged in the wrong way.

Pot meet kettle.
Yes, before now the idea has always been no country with nuclear weapons would be crazy enough to use them. Even if one leader WAS insane enough the hope always was the other country would use diplomacy or such so they would not be used. There is a big flaw in that plan .... when both leaders are the types that would use them, in fact have stated as much.
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Old 12-03-2017, 07:51 PM   #31 (permalink)
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I think there used to be a saying among some at US Strategic Command that close is good enough.
The saying at SAC was "The towns in western Germany are only two kilotons apart."

(Western Germany being the assumed route for an invasion by the Eastern Bloc).

The older military saying is "Close only counts in horseshoes and hand-grenades".

On the subject of hitting the White House, ICBM guidance used to be highly classified tech. But that was before GPS and other satellite navigation systems. Now you just need to strap a smartphone to your warhead and follow the directions.
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Old 12-03-2017, 10:44 PM   #32 (permalink)
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The saying at SAC was "The towns in western Germany are only two kilotons apart."

(Western Germany being the assumed route for an invasion by the Eastern Bloc).

The older military saying is "Close only counts in horseshoes and hand-grenades".

On the subject of hitting the White House, ICBM guidance used to be highly classified tech. But that was before GPS and other satellite navigation systems. Now you just need to strap a smartphone to your warhead and follow the directions.
I am sure this is a TAC saying not SAC. SAC operated ICBMs and the Manned Bomber program both of which used warheads in the hundreds of kilotons if not megatons. Their targets would of been in the Eastern Block or Soviet Union. The below link will give you a good ideal of what nuclear weapons can do to a target.

NUKEMAP by Alex Wellerstein
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Old 12-04-2017, 01:01 AM   #33 (permalink)
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Ranma, you're going to lecture Daniel? Seriously? (Fwiw, he's right.)
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Old 12-04-2017, 06:51 AM   #34 (permalink)
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Those poor animals!

If the WH were hit by a blast equivalent to NK's last test the national zoo would be in the fireball range. Then again, my last apartment building would be bye-bye as well.
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Old 12-04-2017, 10:16 AM   #35 (permalink)
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Wouldn't our anti-missile defense system just blow them out of the sky first? Or did we do away with that system? I mean, Trumpy has been saying he wants the biggest and best military, we should have all the toys. Hell i bet he has wet drams about the Star Wars defense system rumor from back in the late 80's.
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Old 12-04-2017, 10:36 AM   #36 (permalink)
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Wouldn't our anti-missile defense system just blow them out of the sky first? Or did we do away with that system? I mean, Trumpy has been saying he wants the biggest and best military, we should have all the toys. Hell i bet he has wet drams about the Star Wars defense system rumor from back in the late 80's.
You have to love the people that think we have a perfect AMD system. It is why star wars is still running with the promise it had during the Reagan years.

True, we do have SOME systems (and I would bet a smaller one is near the WH) but they are hardly foolproof. The analogy is that it is trickier than shooting a bullet with another bullet. Pardon me if I do not want to play those odds.
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Old 12-04-2017, 11:48 AM   #37 (permalink)
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Yes, before now the idea has always been no country with nuclear weapons would be crazy enough to use them.
You mean -- apart from a certain country which dropped two of them for no other reason that "because we can" on Japan 72 years ago?
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Old 12-04-2017, 01:03 PM   #38 (permalink)
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You mean -- apart from a certain country which dropped two of them for no other reason that "because we can" on Japan 72 years ago?
Well, the logic was probably a bit trickier than that because it ended the war in the Pacific theatre. It does mean we are the only country so far who has used nuclear weapons in a war.
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Old 12-04-2017, 02:05 PM   #39 (permalink)
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because it ended the war in the Pacific theatre
That's the usual coming from the US, yes. For the whole rest of the world, it's pretty much consensus that war was already over at the time the bombs were dropped.
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Old 12-04-2017, 03:25 PM   #40 (permalink)
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That's the usual coming from the US, yes. For the whole rest of the world, it's pretty much consensus that war was already over at the time the bombs were dropped.
And anyone with in-depth reading of events around that time will come away with knowledge that the American government was never as sure as we are today that the war was over. The bomb was seen as last insurance, not a "just because we can" eventuality.

Fact: before the bombs, Japan was still working hard on upgrading defenses and training civilians for a ground war. They were prepared to sacrifice millions of their people for the sake of preserving "Tennō" (Heavenly Sovereign), the emperor, in opposing the anticipated American landings on Kyūshū and Honshu. (Plans which included the prolific use of atomic weapons during the battles).

The bombs caused consternation in the imperial council, but the combination of the bomb and the Soviet declaration of war and invasion of Manchuria ended the discussion completely. We can't honestly separate the effects of either event on Japanese psychology today.

Today, the entire thing is so colored and slanted by politics it's ridiculous.
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Old 12-04-2017, 03:31 PM   #41 (permalink)
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That's the usual coming from the US, yes. For the whole rest of the world, it's pretty much consensus that war was already over at the time the bombs were dropped.
News to me.
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Old 12-04-2017, 03:48 PM   #42 (permalink)
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Fact: before the bombs, Japan was still working hard on upgrading defenses and training civilians for a ground war. They were prepared to sacrifice millions of their people for the sake of preserving "Tennō" (Heavenly Sovereign), the emperor, in opposing the anticipated American landings on Kyūshū and Honshu.
How dare them evil Japs(*) trying to defend their own country?

No, I don't think it's a good idea that NK has nukes, but if they wouldn't have them, the US would have invaded their country at latest by the day Trump was elected president of the "Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave"[TM]. If nukes are the only way for them to prevent a US military invasion, so be it. They made clear they won't use nukes as a fist strike weapon and I have no reason not to believe them.


(*) Yes, I'm one of them evil Japs.
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Old 12-04-2017, 04:34 PM   #43 (permalink)
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That's the usual coming from the US, yes. For the whole rest of the world, it's pretty much consensus that war was already over at the time the bombs were dropped.
Strange. I could have sworn people were still dying the day before the first bomb dropped.
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Old 12-04-2017, 04:38 PM   #44 (permalink)
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News to me.
I guess if all you were concerned about was your own territory and you were in europe you would see the war as over and winding down. That was not what was the case for anyone in/near the Pacific though.
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Old 12-04-2017, 04:57 PM   #45 (permalink)
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Wouldn't our anti-missile defense system just blow them out of the sky first? Or did we do away with that system? ... Hell i bet he has wet drams about the Star Wars defense system rumor from back in the late 80's.
I will preface this by saying I worked on the Strategic Defense Initiative (ie Star Wars) program in the *early* 1980's (not late). We do have anti-missile systems, but they only have partial coverage.

Whether we could hit a North Korean ICBM on the way up depends on several things: how fast we could determine where it is going, whether we have an interceptor within range, and how fast it can get to the target. In the mid-course (flying over the Pacific), you have more time to determine where it is going, but the target is much harder to find. A rocket while climbing has a big obvious heat signature, and you aim just above that. A warhead flying above the atmosphere is physically smaller, and not producing heat. We have early-warning radar to detect such things, but the interceptor you send against it has to do the final navigation on it's own, radar is not accurate enough.

In the terminal phase, coming down on the target, you have shorter distance to hit it, so you can use smaller interceptor missiles, and the warhead is hot again, due to entering the atmosphere at high speed. That makes it easier to find. All of our interceptor systems are measured in the tens of units, so we have a finite number of shots we can take to bring it down.

We started working on missile defense in the 1980's, when the USSR was the opponent. They could not keep up with our technology - we were the country that had beat them to the Moon a decade earlier. So they came to the negotiating table and signed a nuclear reduction treaty instead. That took the urgency out of completing a full missile defense shield.

The work has continued since then, at a much reduced budget. It has yielded working systems for defense against a rogue state or commander (i.e. a Russian who launches a missile or two without orders). Fortunately, that is exactly what North Korea is. We now are also at the point of fielding advanced weapons, like railguns and combat lasers. Those were science fiction in the '80's.

I expect the only thing Trump knows about Star Wars is the movies. When talking to the Coast Guard recently, he displayed a stupendous lack of knowledge for a commander in chief, despite having a general as his chief of staff in the White House, and being able to get a briefing any time he wants from the military.
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Old 12-04-2017, 04:59 PM   #46 (permalink)
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How dare them evil Japs(*) trying to defend their own country?
That's a cheap shot argument. The Japanese had been at war since they invaded Manchuria in 1931 and made it a colony. They had embarked on a war of aggression trying to make the Pacific their empire and only attacked the US, Britain and the Netherlands because we stood in their way.

By 1944, it should have been blatantly obvious to them that they had lost. Their Navy was decimated, their air force was destroyed and relied on untrained rookies. And their best troops were isolated in China, unable to contribute to their defense.

They could have surrendered then, but because of cultural differences they believed the Allies would imprison their emperor - a possibility, certainly. To the Japanese, it was a matter of national polity. To the Allies, the Emperor was believed to be a war criminal. That left the actual outcome - a fight to the death.

So, while the Japanese or any country has the right to defend themselves, that right stops on the verge of having millions of innocent citizens slaughtered in war. Crying foul when it was Imperial Japan who ventured into a war of expansion is just plain indefensible.

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Old 12-04-2017, 05:50 PM   #47 (permalink)
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I guess if all you were concerned about was your own territory and you were in europe you would see the war as over and winding down. That was not what was the case for anyone in/near the Pacific though.
My parents knew the war wasn't over. Anyone reading the newspaper or with foreign friends did.
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Old 12-04-2017, 06:11 PM   #48 (permalink)
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How dare them evil Japs(*) trying to defend their own country?

No, I don't think it's a good idea that NK has nukes, but if they wouldn't have them, the US would have invaded their country at latest by the day Trump was elected president of the "Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave"[TM]. If nukes are the only way for them to prevent a US military invasion, so be it. They made clear they won't use nukes as a fist strike weapon and I have no reason not to believe them.


(*) Yes, I'm one of them evil Japs.
Umm, defend their country?!? So, your idea of defending your country is attacking a country that had not involved itself in the war? How exactly is that a defense? japan attacked Pearl Harbor Dec 7th 1941.. 4 years later we retaliated. But the US started WW2, right?
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Old 12-04-2017, 06:12 PM   #49 (permalink)
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And anyone with in-depth reading of events around that time will come away with knowledge that the American government was never as sure as we are today that the war was over. The bomb was seen as last insurance, not a "just because we can" eventuality.

Fact: before the bombs, Japan was still working hard on upgrading defenses and training civilians for a ground war. They were prepared to sacrifice millions of their people for the sake of preserving "Tennō" (Heavenly Sovereign), the emperor, in opposing the anticipated American landings on Kyūshū and Honshu. (Plans which included the prolific use of atomic weapons during the battles).

The bombs caused consternation in the imperial council, but the combination of the bomb and the Soviet declaration of war and invasion of Manchuria ended the discussion completely. We can't honestly separate the effects of either event on Japanese psychology today.

Today, the entire thing is so colored and slanted by politics it's ridiculous.
Eku disagrees; though I'm not sure which part or why.

But considering that she's from there, I think that's well worth taking into consideration.
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Old 12-04-2017, 07:19 PM   #50 (permalink)
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Ranma, you're going to lecture Daniel? Seriously? (Fwiw, he's right.)
Maybe Ranma knows something, I am still on PRP.
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