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Old 11-19-2017, 01:43 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Brexit

There's plenty of awful crap to wade through, if their petitioners persist, but in the meantime:

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Old 11-19-2017, 03:02 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Old 11-19-2017, 07:44 AM   #3 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Porsupah Ree View Post
There's plenty of awful crap to wade through, if their petitioners persist, but in the meantime:

if it wasnt so serious, id laugh - but it makes me feel more like crying.

i truly hate brexit...

in an era of globalism believing one country can go it alone, not have to adhere to rules and regulations is just... well... dumb.

and i dont want to feel that, i dont want to dismiss people who voted for brexit as dumb.

its so divisive, my lovely pacifist husband has turned into a hater wanting to kill brexiteers, im finding it hard to talk with friends who voted for it.

and sometimes how i feel helps me to understand what maybe terrorists are feeling, when an idea becomes more important than people's lives.

ill go with brexit if i can have the britain back ive lived in for 45 years - where i didnt feel an unwanted outsider (i am german).

but in my heart of hearts i want to be a european, and ideally - if there was an option - a world citizen.

can this hatred / division ever be bridged?
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Old 11-19-2017, 10:15 AM   #4 (permalink)
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There's a lot that can happen between now and March 2019. I am still not convinced that Brexit is going to happen, because when the city, big business and the senior civil service really don't want something to happen, it generally doesn't. Nor can I really see the Conservatives, of all people, defying their natural constituency (by which I mean their paymasters, not the people who vote for them) to that extent. Who else is going to give them their lucrative directorships and the like when they leave public life, which may well be sooner than many of them had planned, the way things are going?

A "strong and stable" government would find it difficult enough to deliver Brexit, it seems to me, let alone a "coalition of chaos," so let's just see how things work out. Just about everyone other than the present administration now seems to agree that the Article 50 notice can be withdrawn any time between now and March 2019.

I am not at all sure who will be Prime Minister come the new year, and neither am I really that sure which party will be in power come the Spring. Certainly there's a huge legislative challenge facing the present government, and they're already in severe difficulties even though they've only just started.

So let's not give up hope just yet awhile.
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Old 11-19-2017, 11:02 AM   #5 (permalink)
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Old 11-19-2017, 11:05 AM   #6 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Innula Zenovka View Post
There's a lot that can happen between now and March 2019. I am still not convinced that Brexit is going to happen, because when the city, big business and the senior civil service really don't want something to happen, it generally doesn't. Nor can I really see the Conservatives, of all people, defying their natural constituency (by which I mean their paymasters, not the people who vote for them) to that extent. Who else is going to give them their lucrative directorships and the like when they leave public life, which may well be sooner than many of them had planned, the way things are going?
Just like the US, including the RNC, was convinced Donnie would never happen? Yeah, both are countries are going to wind up paying the piper for years over some ill-advised popular votes in 2016.
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Old 11-19-2017, 11:22 AM   #7 (permalink)
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Just like the US, including the RNC, was convinced Donnie would never happen? Yeah, both are countries are going to wind up paying the piper for years over some ill-advised popular votes in 2016.
The difference is that Brexit requires a vast amount of legislative work to make it happen, and there's no majority in either of the two houses for Brexit.

I would think a better analogy (though still not perfect) might be not with Trump being elected but with his ability, once elected, to fulfil his promises about abolishing Obamacare or building a wall and making Mexico pay for it.

Furthermore, at least on paper, he would appear to be far better placed to get Congress to pass contentious legislation than is HMG to pass contentious legislation on Brexit.
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Old 11-19-2017, 12:01 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Well strictly speaking all brexit needs to make it happen is for article 50 to be triggered. It has been triggered, it is going to happen no matter how much we fail to prepare for it. For brexit not to happen, it requires that someone stop it. Who's going to do that? May? Corbyn? Both of them want it to happen.

People I know who voted leave flatly refuse to accept that anything will change because of brexit. They think we will be outside of the EU but there will be zero impact on their lives of any sort. Except 'they' wont be able to make us follow 'their' laws anymore.
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Old 11-19-2017, 12:11 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Well strictly speaking all brexit needs to make it happen is for article 50 to be triggered. It has been triggered, it is going to happen no matter how much we fail to prepare for it. For brexit not to happen, it requires that someone stop it. Who's going to do that? May? Corbyn? Both of them want it to happen.

People I know who voted leave flatly refuse to accept that anything will change because of brexit. They think we will be outside of the EU but there will be zero impact on their lives of any sort. Except 'they' wont be able to make us follow 'their' laws anymore.
I don't expect anyone to say, "We're going to ignore the outcome of the referendum." However, I can think of several scenarios in which, at some point over the next year, Theresa May finds herself out of office, and in which her successor as PM (whether Conservative or Labour) withdraws the A50 notification while the new administration considers its position.

If that happens, then I wouldn't put money on its being re-submitted in a hurry.

ETA: To my mind, it's becoming clearer and clearer that it's in neither of the main parties' interests to be remembered as the people responsible for negotiating the basis on which we leave the EU. Far better to be in opposition, so you can blame the other side for the dire consequences that will inevitably follow.
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Old 11-19-2017, 01:24 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Old 11-19-2017, 02:28 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Innula Zenovka View Post
I don't expect anyone to say, "We're going to ignore the outcome of the referendum." However, I can think of several scenarios in which, at some point over the next year, Theresa May finds herself out of office, and in which her successor as PM (whether Conservative or Labour) withdraws the A50 notification while the new administration considers its position.

If that happens, then I wouldn't put money on its being re-submitted in a hurry.

ETA: To my mind, it's becoming clearer and clearer that it's in neither of the main parties' interests to be remembered as the people responsible for negotiating the basis on which we leave the EU. Far better to be in opposition, so you can blame the other side for the dire consequences that will inevitably follow.
Her successor is mostly likely to be rees-mogg or johnson and would most likely abandon talks and dive for the no-deal cliff edge (johnson would probably use a zip line for that).

However I agree that for saner politicians, being the party that did the deal (or failed to) is political poison, but there isn't much that can be done about that. I really cannot believe there would be another general election prior to march 2019.

In the meantime, the reality of brexit is starting to bite:

Cornwall asks for Government funding after Brexit, doesn’t get it

Grimsby asking for special dispensation for its vital seafood industry


Brexit no-deal could stop Aston Martin production

Twitter

and of course there's the NHS nursing staffing crisis with the number of registered nurses actually falling this year, partly due to a 96% reduction in the number of european nurses coming to the UK and over 80,000 unfilled vacancies in the NHS of which 40,000 are for nurses.

Oh and Ireland is pissed at the border situation and is saying they will prevent any discussion of trade until we actually come up with a solution
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Old 11-19-2017, 02:41 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Old 11-19-2017, 03:11 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Her successor is mostly likely to be rees-mogg or johnson and would most likely abandon talks and dive for the no-deal cliff edge (johnson would probably use a zip line for that).

However I agree that for saner politicians, being the party that did the deal (or failed to) is political poison, but there isn't much that can be done about that. I really cannot believe there would be another general election prior to march 2019.

In the meantime, the reality of brexit is starting to bite:

Cornwall asks for Government funding after Brexit, doesn’t get it

Grimsby asking for special dispensation for its vital seafood industry


Brexit no-deal could stop Aston Martin production

https://twitter.com/RobertsDan/statu...49800297897985

and of course there's the NHS nursing staffing crisis with the number of registered nurses actually falling this year, partly due to a 96% reduction in the number of european nurses coming to the UK and over 80,000 unfilled vacancies in the NHS of which 40,000 are for nurses.

Oh and Ireland is pissed at the border situation and is saying they will prevent any discussion of trade until we actually come up with a solution
Why do you think that either Rees-Mogg or Johnson is going to find it any easier to keep the Parliamentary Conservative Party together and shepherd all the necessary legislation through the Commons and the Lords than May is finding it?

Changing the leader won't change the parliamentary arithmetic, and neither will it change the fact that the Conservatives (at least in Parliament) are hopelessly divided over Europe. If the Conservatives find themselves saddled with either Rees-Mogg or Johnson, to my mind that's just going to exacerbate the division even more, and can only swell the ranks of what the Telegraph calls "mutineers."

I think the Government find themselves in what is known in chess as zugzwang -- that is, whatever they do next, it will be to their serious disadvantage.
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Old 11-19-2017, 03:27 PM   #14 (permalink)
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...

I think the Government find themselves in what is known in chess as zugzwang -- that is, whatever they do next, it will be to their serious disadvantage...

zugzwang


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Old 11-19-2017, 06:44 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Why do you think that either Rees-Mogg or Johnson is going to find it any easier to keep the Parliamentary Conservative Party together and shepherd all the necessary legislation through the Commons and the Lords than May is finding it?
No they wont have an easier time than May but that has nothing to do with it.

There is no more legislation that needs to be passed to make the UK leave the EU. They've had that vote, the only Tory that opposed it was Ken Clarke. Article 50 is triggered. It's done. We're out in march 2019.

It doesn't matter whether May, Johnson, Rees-Mogg, Corbyn or a potato from Corbyn's allotment is running the government, come march 2019 the UK exits the EU.

Now in theory it is possible to revoke the article 50 notification, but that would take a hell of a leader to get that through parliament. And none of the possible leaders between now and the exit date would even want to try, let alone have the authority and support to make it happen.

Or do you think I'm wrong? What legislation do you think needs to be passed in order to cause the UK to leave?
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Old 11-19-2017, 07:28 PM   #16 (permalink)
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No they wont have an easier time than May but that has nothing to do with it.

There is no more legislation that needs to be passed to make the UK leave the EU. They've had that vote, the only Tory that opposed it was Ken Clarke. Article 50 is triggered. It's done. We're out in march 2019.

It doesn't matter whether May, Johnson, Rees-Mogg, Corbyn or a potato from Corbyn's allotment is running the government, come march 2019 the UK exits the EU.

Now in theory it is possible to revoke the article 50 notification, but that would take a hell of a leader to get that through parliament. And none of the possible leaders between now and the exit date would even want to try, let alone have the authority and support to make it happen.

Or do you think I'm wrong? What legislation do you think needs to be passed in order to cause the UK to leave?
They have to pass the EU Withdrawal Bill in order to leave and not have whole swathes of British law turn into complete nonsense.

They don't have to pass any legislation at all to revoke the A50 notification, though.

In the event that we seriously look like crashing out without any sort of deal, I'm pretty sure there's no commons majority for it, whether the Conservatives are led by Theresa May or anyone else. Indeed, I'm pretty sure that having Johnson or Rees-Mogg as leader would pretty much ensure that result.

That means, if I am correct, that the government would be at grave risk of losing a vote of confidence, which would trigger yet another general election, which I am pretty sure Labour would win (though would probably need the SNP's support in order to form a government).

In those circumstances, I don't think the new prime minister, whoever he or she is (Jeremy Corbyn, I assume) would find it at all difficult to withdraw the notification, on the basis the new government needed to reconsider its position.
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Old 11-19-2017, 11:12 PM   #17 (permalink)
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There's plenty of awful crap to wade through, if their petitioners persist, but in the meantime:

Funny you in particular should start this thread. I was driving to or from town or somewhere recently, my background mind playing with different themes and recalled you posting that you had a promising job prospect in Valencia. From there (adding in the fact I had just finished a jar of Mackay's Dundee Marmalade and after reading the label had googled to learn more about where the whole marmalade thing came from) it was but a short step of the Levenque mind to postulate the theory that you had come up with a genetic modification that would cause Valencia oranges to become sweeter and more sugary than even California Navels. The taste of marmalade made with these was so 'off' that marmalade production dropped like a stone, creating a crisis in the UK.

And then the chilling letter arrived in the PM's mail delivery. Reverse the Brexit decision or the United Kingdom shall never taste real marmalade again. A copy sent to the various news organs insured the public learned of it.

Panic in the streets. Torchlight marches on Parliament. All that good stuff.

ps: I AM a careful driver. I pay attention. I don't even answer my phone while driving let alone use it or look at it (when I was working I did have a Bluetooth earpiece so the office could stay in touch). I just can't control what my imagination's doing in the background.
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Old 11-20-2017, 02:43 AM   #18 (permalink)
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They have to pass the EU Withdrawal Bill in order to leave and not have whole swathes of British law turn into complete nonsense.

They don't have to pass any legislation at all to revoke the A50 notification, though.
On your first point, agreed, absolutely. But that's an internal issue within the UK and doesn't in any way stop us leaving. It just means chaos.

I'm curious why you think the government can revoke article 50 without a commons vote when they needed one in order to send the notification in the first place.
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Old 11-20-2017, 03:01 AM   #19 (permalink)
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On your first point, agreed, absolutely. But that's an internal issue within the UK and doesn't in any way stop us leaving. It just means chaos.

I'm curious why you think the government can revoke article 50 without a commons vote when they needed one in order to send the notification in the first place.
The Supreme Court case was primarily about the government using prerogative powers to remove rights from people that they had been given by statute.

Triggering Article 50, the argument ran, would lead to British citizens losing various rights they enjoyed as citizens of an EU member state, and these rights were ultimately granted by the European Communities Act 1972, so the Government had to seek parliamentary approval before embarking on a course of action that would automatically lead to these rights being removed.

The arguments are all pretty technical and I don't pretend to understand them in detail, but I can't see how the Supreme Court decision requires any similar parliamentary approval to withdraw the Article 50 notification, since it wouldn't remove anyone's statutory rights.
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Old 11-20-2017, 03:58 AM   #20 (permalink)
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Interesting, but even if not technically legally essential, revoking the article 50 notification without parliaments approval would surely also be political suicide.
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Old 11-20-2017, 05:39 AM   #21 (permalink)
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Interesting, but even if not technically legally essential, revoking the article 50 notification without parliaments approval would surely also be political suicide.

Quite possibly. However, since there's no majority in either the Commons or the Lords for a "hard Brexit" I don't think that, when it came down to it, a new administration -- particularly if it were a Labour administration following another general election -- would have much difficulty in gaining a parliamentary majority for withdrawing the A50 notification while it reconsidered Britain's position.

Remember, all this is predicated on Theresa May being replaced as PM because her government's negotiations with the EU have collapsed and she can't get Parliament (including a sizeable number of her own MPs) to support a "hard Brexit".
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Old 11-20-2017, 06:14 AM   #22 (permalink)
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Not knowing the intricacies it does not make a lot of sense that the UK needs to do anything. Party A has told party B it is dissolving the contract on a certain date. Surely everything that happens after that date is internal for party A and nothing more needs be done for the date to appear on the calendar of both of them?
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Old 11-20-2017, 06:50 AM   #23 (permalink)
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ETA: To my mind, it's becoming clearer and clearer that it's in neither of the main parties' interests to be remembered as the people responsible for negotiating the basis on which we leave the EU. Far better to be in opposition, so you can blame the other side for the dire consequences that will inevitably follow.
It's why Boris gave up on his quest to be PM. He wants to be PM once all the shit has hit the fan, the fan has been cleaned and he wants to turn it back on to a medium setting with everyone going... awww thanks Boris, that feels good!

I really have always seen May as the scapegoat PM. I really don't get the Tory infighting over this for the reason that no-one else can and will be prepared to be the scapegoat.
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Old 11-20-2017, 07:07 AM   #24 (permalink)
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I wonder if there is a rule in the EU that a country can be evicted if needed.
Why on earth do the Brits still think it is only a UK thingy.
We want a fair result for all.
Who cares about UK internal political game play.
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Old 11-20-2017, 07:37 AM   #25 (permalink)
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I wonder if there is a rule in the EU that a country can be evicted if needed.
Why on earth do the Brits still think it is only a UK thingy.
We want a fair result for all.
Who cares about UK internal political game play.
Exactly, it sounds like everything that now happens is internal to the UK. Why would the EU care about the internal affairs of another country that as of the withdrawal date will not even be an EU state?
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