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Old 07-09-2018, 04:20 AM   #176 (permalink)
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“weak negotiating position”

YOU DON'T SAY?
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Old 07-09-2018, 05:29 AM   #177 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Porsupah Ree View Post
They're not backing it up with anything but "trust us" in the comments, but the threshold required is very low, I recall, so it's possible:

https://twitter.com/_britpolitics/st...99960381673473
'letters'?

Is that from the public or other politicos? If the former that must be a nice system.
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Old 07-09-2018, 06:05 AM   #178 (permalink)
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'letters'?

Is that from the public or other politicos? If the former that must be a nice system.
MPs, I'm afraid.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-br...-idUKKBN1JZ0TN

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A leadership challenge can be triggered if 15 percent of members of parliament in May’s Conservative Party write a letter to the chairman of the party’s so-called “1922 committee”.

The Conservatives currently have 316 members of parliament (MPs) so 48 of them would need to write such letters to challenge May.

Once that threshold has been reached, the chairman will announce the start of the contest and invite nominations.
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Old 07-09-2018, 10:06 AM   #179 (permalink)
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And he's gone!

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/...141755783.html

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UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has resigned, a move that threatens to tear apart Prime Minister Theresa May's government amid divisions over Britain's departure from the European Union.

Johnson's departure on Monday comes a day after David Davis, the minister in charge of Brexit negotiations for Britain, also stepped down.
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Old 07-09-2018, 10:31 AM   #180 (permalink)
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Question is, does this pave the way for a friendly-Brexit with GB in a role like Norway?
Or is this the start of a victory for the hardliners, who want a hard-Brexit?
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Old 07-09-2018, 11:34 AM   #181 (permalink)
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Question is, does this pave the way for a friendly-Brexit with GB in a role like Norway?
Or is this the start of a victory for the hardliners, who want a hard-Brexit?
No one knows. It's a complete and utter mess. If the Conservatives organise a leadership contest, it's going to take time we haven't really got, and it's by no means clear to me that Boris Johnson (or anyone else) could put together a government anyway.

One thing is certain, though. There's no parliamentary majority for a hard Brexit. The only sane decision would be to withdraw the A50 notification and put together an interim government on the basis we'll have another general election in the Autumn, after both the main parties have had a chance to take stock and fight on manifestos making their respective positions clear.

Then, if necessary, resubmit the A50 notification (after again obtaining parliament's agreement) and start over with serious negotiations. Or, as I would prefer, start over with a Labour government that had campaigned on the basis that we've seen we can't leave the EU on realistic terms, so we're better off in (though I doubt that will happen).

But we're in completely uncharted waters, and none of the main players seems to have much of a clue. In that I include Jeremy Corbyn and most of his team, though not Keir Starmer, who has been shadowing Davis and co.
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Old 07-09-2018, 12:11 PM   #182 (permalink)
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The only sane decision would be to withdraw the A50 notification and [futz around for a few years until you can call a new referendum without hurting anyone's feelings too much, and step back from the abyss]
FTFY
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Old 07-09-2018, 12:14 PM   #183 (permalink)
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Heh..

https://mobile.twitter.com/Peston/st...27944455819265

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I am told Downing Street "spiked" @BorisJohnson - that is they announced he was quitting BEFORE he actually finished writing his resignation letter. This is getting very brutal
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Old 07-09-2018, 12:22 PM   #184 (permalink)
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FTFY
Yes,I think once the A50 notification is pulled, no one is going to be in a hurry to resubmit it.
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Old 07-09-2018, 12:31 PM   #185 (permalink)
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Yes,I think once the A50 notification is pulled, no one is going to be in a hurry to resubmit it.
Ooooh, Quantum Brexit.
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Old 07-09-2018, 03:24 PM   #186 (permalink)
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Am I he only one thinking that the rats are leaving the sinking ship so they can tell their idiotic Brexit-voting supporters that they had nothing to do with this failure?
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Old 07-09-2018, 04:20 PM   #187 (permalink)
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Am I he only one thinking that the rats are leaving the sinking ship so they can tell their idiotic Brexit-voting supporters that they had nothing to do with this failure?
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Boris Johnson has launched a scathing attack on Theresa May's Brexit strategy, saying the "dream is dying, suffocated by needless self-doubt".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44770847

That's the problem, though, that elitist remainers like me who know that reality doesn't give a toss about "the will of the people" keep on stubbornly pointing out -- dreams are all very well (though usually boring to listen to) but it doesn't do to confuse them with waking life, and the fact of the matter is that Boris' dreams about having his cake and eating it were only dreams, and there's no use flogging a dead unicorn.
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Old 07-10-2018, 01:24 AM   #188 (permalink)
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Innula as ever remains an optimist in this. The inevitable consequence of all of this is a cliff edge brexit.

The clock runs down while the Tories play a game of who gets to be captain of the sinking ship.

They don't have the political will to withdraw article 50 they don't have the skill to negotiate a deal, mainly because they wont back down from their own red lines that make a deal impossible.

There may be leadership challenges and a Tory leadership contest, there may be a general election. But all any of it does it waste the little remaining time and none of it will significantly change the players in the team it will just swap them into different positions.

A general election could be interesting, for all that Corbyn is a dyed in the wool euro sceptic, I don't believe he's stupid enough to want to be in charge as the shit hits the fan. We could see the first ever general election where everyone is trying to lose.
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Old 07-10-2018, 04:52 AM   #189 (permalink)
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Best case: May falls as Tory party leader. A vote of no confidence in the government passes triggering an immediate general election. A quantum singularity of sanity erupts in Westminster leading to the recognition that the general election will run out the clock on the A50 declaration and its implementation is formally deferred (less likely to fall afoul of a "no backsies!" ruling from the ECJ). New government, new mandate, renegotiation of the whole shebang ensues,hopefully avoiding implementation of Brexit altogether.


Worst case: May falls as Tory leader (This is looking more or less inevitable). She is replaced by Johnson or Rees-Mogg. Motion of no confidence may be proposed but fails to pass. No deal Brexit. At that point I would seriously consider transferring my lifelong allegiance to a different political party to the SNP.
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Old 07-10-2018, 06:44 AM   #190 (permalink)
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Old 07-10-2018, 08:34 AM   #191 (permalink)
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Innula as ever remains an optimist in this. The inevitable consequence of all of this is a cliff edge brexit.

The clock runs down while the Tories play a game of who gets to be captain of the sinking ship.

They don't have the political will to withdraw article 50 they don't have the skill to negotiate a deal, mainly because they wont back down from their own red lines that make a deal impossible.

There may be leadership challenges and a Tory leadership contest, there may be a general election. But all any of it does it waste the little remaining time and none of it will significantly change the players in the team it will just swap them into different positions.

A general election could be interesting, for all that Corbyn is a dyed in the wool euro sceptic, I don't believe he's stupid enough to want to be in charge as the shit hits the fan. We could see the first ever general election where everyone is trying to lose.
In politics, I don't think anything in inevitable until it actually happens. The fact of the matter, though, is that there certainly isn't anything like a majority in parliament for a "cliff edge Brexit" and it is wholly possible to avoid it by withdrawing the A50 notification. Certainly it's one possible outcome but it's by no means the only one and neither is it inevitable or even, to my mind, the most likely one.

If the worst came to the worst, the government easily obtain parliamentary agreement to almost any withdrawal terms with the assistance of the opposition. A hard "cliff edge Brexit" would be a danger only if the government actually wanted it, which seems not to be the case.

I don't think a Conservative leadership contest is particularly likely at the moment -- it would take too long to run a contested one and, anyway, who would want the job in these circumstances? -- and neither do I think that a General Election is on the cards in the immediate future.

Theresa May has at last settled on a negotiating position (which she should have done before sending in the A50 notification, of course). The EU won't agree to it, so the next stage is some proposals and counter-proposals, and I don't think anyone knows what things are going to look like in November, which is when I think things really are going to get interesting.
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Old 07-10-2018, 09:18 AM   #192 (permalink)
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I have the feeling that the UK government still thinks that it is all about what the UK government wants and that the remaining EU will accept whatever they will present at the negotiations in Brussels.
A lot of EU members think that UK cherry picking is completely out of order.
So only a free market for goods, as proposed now, will most likely lead to no agreement at all. And all the hardliners know that. So the only thing they have to do, is trying to delay talks and give the British negotiators as little wiggle room as possible. Rolling straight forward to a hard brexit.
The hard liners don't need a majority in British parliament, they only need a few EU countries that will say no to a special snowflake deal for UK and there will be a hard Brexit.

All the political argumentation in the UK that is now taking place, should have been done before even starting the A50 procedure.
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Old 07-10-2018, 09:18 AM   #193 (permalink)
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Yes well the negotiations are supposed to be over in november and yes, they do finally have a negotiating position - all be it one that was rejected right at the start of the process and ever since - but they should have had that before they ever triggered article 50.


The Tory ERG will not support anything short of cliff edge, Tory rebels will moan and beat their breasts and then go on to do exactly as they are told to. Corbyn and Labour may or may not vote at all and if they do, they certainly will not be voting for a soft brexit as Corbyn is as hard core anti-europe as Dickensian villian JRM.


But who knows what will happen, Im not ruling out sword fights between the various Tory factions at this point.
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Old 07-10-2018, 12:27 PM   #194 (permalink)
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Corbyn and Labour may or may not vote at all and if they do, they certainly will not be voting for a soft brexit as Corbyn is as hard core anti-europe as Dickensian villian JRM.
Possibly so, though I suspect Corbyn's views on the EU are largely based on those of whoever spoke to him last on the subject, tempered by his conflicting prejudices that (i) 30-odd years ago Labour was anti-EU, so probably it still should be and (ii) anything that upsets the right-wing of the Tory party so much is probably worth supporting.

However, be that as it may, it's undeniably the case that most Labour MPs support the EU, and that most of them are acutely aware that so do most Labour voters, and it's also undeniably the case that, much to the distress of folk like Momentum and The Canary, most Labour MPs don't generally pay much attention to what Jeremy Corbyn thinks.

Ignore Corbyn for the time being. Watch what Keir Starmer is saying -- he's a smart guy, and thank heavens he's got Labour's Brexit brief.

To my mind, he's trying to engineer a situation in which either we end up with EFTA membership like Norway or things collapse and they have to pull the plug on A50 completely.

I don't know what's going to happen, and I don't think anyone does. I just don't think a hard Brexit is anything like a foregone conclusion, or even the most likely one, and I'm still by no means convinced that Brexit is going to happen at all. That's not because I am particularly optimistic but because I find it very hard to believe that the British financial, business, legal, civil service and political establishment will allow it to. They're pretty good at stopping stuff they don't like, after all.

Last edited by Innula Zenovka; 07-10-2018 at 12:59 PM.
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Old 07-11-2018, 08:32 AM   #195 (permalink)
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Not that it'll be any surprise, but in his resignation letter, Boris Johnson lied about the EU getting in the way of improved road safety:

https://www.channel4.com/news/factch...gnation-letter

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The former Foreign Secretary wrote: “we seem to have gone backwards since the last Chequers meeting in February, when I described my frustrations, as Mayor of London, in trying to protect cyclists from juggernauts.

“We had wanted to lower the cabin windows to improve visibility; and even though such designs were already on the market, and even though there had been a horrific spate of deaths, mainly of female cyclists, we were told we had to wait for the EU to legislate on the matter.”

His concluding thought on the issue: “If a country cannot pass a law to save the lives of female cyclists — when that proposal is supported at every level of UK Government — then I don’t see how that country can truly be called independent.”
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For one thing, he neglects to mention that the regulations he’s talking about were in fact put forward by the European Parliament, and backed by 570 MEPs, with 88 voting against. He also fails to acknowledge that those laws have actually been passed.

More crucially, Mr Johnson is wrong to say that the laws in question were “supported at every level of UK Government.”

When the regulations were put forward by the EU, the UK government explicitly did not support the proposals.

A government spokesperson told BBC News in 2014: “Where we are not supporting European Parliament proposals, it is simply because they will not produce practical changes in cab design and could lead to additional bureaucracy for Britain.”

The European Council, which includes representation from the UK government, later adopted the directive.
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Not only did he know that the European Parliament had proposed the laws, he also knew that the UK government opposed them — because he explicitly called out ministers on the issue at the time.

In January 2014, Mr Johnson said: “If these amendments, supported by dozens of cities across Europe, can succeed, we can save literally hundreds of lives across the EU in years to come. I am deeply concerned at the position of the British Government and urge them to embrace this vital issue.”
He lied? Who'da thunk it?
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Old 07-11-2018, 09:22 AM   #196 (permalink)
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Quite a good summary of the various scenarios (but forgetting just scrapping the whole damned idea) of Brexit, ℅ the Financial Times, kindly reposted due to their hard paywall:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/...itain/e26f6o0/
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Old 07-11-2018, 12:10 PM   #197 (permalink)
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Quite a good summary of the various scenarios (but forgetting just scrapping the whole damned idea) of Brexit, ℅ the Financial Times, kindly reposted due to their hard paywall:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/...itain/e26f6o0/
In similar vein, in yesterday's Times (the original, not the NYT), Daniel Finkelstein noted that David Davis is known to use decision trees as part of his decision-making process and took a look at the decision tree leading to a "hard brexit":(Evernote link because Times £wall).

Essentially, argues Finkelstein, there's no viable route left that leads to a "clean break" Brexit of the kind Davis and Johnson say they want.
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Old 07-11-2018, 12:42 PM   #198 (permalink)
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Essentially, argues Finkelstein, there's no viable route left that leads to a "clean break" Brexit of the kind Davis and Johnson say they want.
...

"One in which Britain leaves the EU with frictionless trade and no border in Northern Ireland but also no responsibility to align with European regulations."

Wut?

They thought they had a chance at that?

I want a magic unicorn pony that shits boosterspice too.
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Old 07-11-2018, 12:48 PM   #199 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Argent Stonecutter View Post
...

"One in which Britain leaves the EU with frictionless trade and no border in Northern Ireland but also no responsibility to align with European regulations."

Wut?

They thought they had a chance at that?

I want a magic unicorn pony that shits boosterspice too.
So, you're saying they need to bring on the GREAT and POWERFUL Trixie as their chief negotiator?
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Old 07-12-2018, 12:28 AM   #200 (permalink)
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https://www.theguardian.com/culture/...-for-caribbean

He might be starting a trend.


Your loss, another one's gain, I guess.
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