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Old 07-23-2018, 02:36 PM   #251 (permalink)
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A lot of people keep coming out with the "No majority for no deal" line. But I don't find the argument persuasive.

Article 50s deadline is still ticking down. It remains possible for TM to survive a no confidence vote and even if she loses, who would replace her? The only possibilities are the insane hard line brexiteers - which means a conservative victory in a GE guarantees a hard brexit. A Labour victory in a GE also pretty much guarantees a hard brexit if Corbyn remains labour leader.

Who do you imagine in coalition with whom to halt brexit?

There is too much emphasis on party loyalty for the the anti brexit MPs to ever consider risking a split in their parties so they will stick with their leaders and the leaders hard brexit agendas. For what its worth, the Chequers plan is NOT a soft brexit in any shape and even that has proven not hard enough for the hard liners.

So - No confidence vote/general election - just further time wasting with no significant difference to the current situation.

In order to stop hard brexit there has to be a sane plan that CAN get a majority and I simply cannot imagine a plan that would do that. There is no majority in parliament for hard brexit, but there is no majority for any other outcome either. Even if a plan is produced that can get past parliament, it still needs to find approval with the EU. It also remains the case that if we run out the clock, hard brexit is the default.

The March deadline will not be moved as even if the EU did allow it, the howls of "traitor" from the ERG will soon kill it.
I think we're at cross purposes about no confidence votes. I'm talking not about a vote of no confidence in their leader by Conservative MPs, which I think Theresa May is likely to survive if it's called this side of March 29 but not afterwards, but about a vote in parliament of no confidence in HMG, which has consequences under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act:
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Under the FTPA, Parliament’s fixed five-year term can only be truncated in two ways. First, if more than two thirds of the House of Commons vote to call an election – and that means 434 of the 650 MPs, not just two thirds of those in the chamber. The second is more complicated. If a motion of no confidence is passed or there is a failed vote of confidence, there is a 14-day period in which to pass an act of confidence in a new government. If no such vote is passed, a new election must be held, probably a mere 17 working days later.
When I write of a no confidence vote, I mean a vote by the whole House of Commons, which would, to my mind, be the inevitable outcome of the collapse of the Brexit negotiations. Doubtless TM's leadership of the Conservative Party wouldn't survive it either, but there wouldn't be time to replace her in a contested leadership election before a GE had to be called, and I don't see either J R-M or Boris being anointed as her uncontested successor. If either of them were, then there would doubtless be another vote of no confidence in HMG.

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Old 07-23-2018, 03:15 PM   #252 (permalink)
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Fair, I've been watching the reports of the no confidence letters coming from Tory backbenchers, I hadn't considered a no confidence in the government.
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Old 07-24-2018, 03:47 AM   #253 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Tigger View Post
A lot of people keep coming out with the "No majority for no deal" line. But I don't find the argument persuasive.

Article 50s deadline is still ticking down. It remains possible for TM to survive a no confidence vote and even if she loses, who would replace her? The only possibilities are the insane hard line brexiteers - which means a conservative victory in a GE guarantees a hard brexit. A Labour victory in a GE also pretty much guarantees a hard brexit if Corbyn remains labour leader.

Who do you imagine in coalition with whom to halt brexit?

There is too much emphasis on party loyalty for the the anti brexit MPs to ever consider risking a split in their parties so they will stick with their leaders and the leaders hard brexit agendas. For what its worth, the Chequers plan is NOT a soft brexit in any shape and even that has proven not hard enough for the hard liners.

So - No confidence vote/general election - just further time wasting with no significant difference to the current situation.

In order to stop hard brexit there has to be a sane plan that CAN get a majority and I simply cannot imagine a plan that would do that. There is no majority in parliament for hard brexit, but there is no majority for any other outcome either. Even if a plan is produced that can get past parliament, it still needs to find approval with the EU. It also remains the case that if we run out the clock, hard brexit is the default.

The March deadline will not be moved as even if the EU did allow it, the howls of "traitor" from the ERG will soon kill it.

Pretty much this.


Right now, I pretty much see only one way that I will remain a citizen of an EU member state with all the rights and privileges that accrue thereto, and that's in an independent Scotland. Which is looking more and more likely if the no-deal stupidity proceeds to its logical conclusion. I know a lot of people who voted "no" on independence who are now saying "If I'd seen this coming I'd have voted yes" - enough that if the (admittedly small and statistically insignificant) sample represented by "folks who know Dave" is indicative of the population a second independence referendum held now would overwhelmingly pass.
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Old 07-24-2018, 04:17 AM   #254 (permalink)
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Old 07-24-2018, 09:50 AM   #255 (permalink)
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Ah, time for the blue handled shivs again, I see:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...b0af35eb777978

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Theresa May has published this written ministerial statement this afternoon. It is under the bland heading, “machinery of government change”, but it clearly shows that DExEU, the Department for Exiting the EU, is being downgraded. She says the Cabinet Office, and by implication Number 10, is now in charge of the Brexit negotiations, not the Brexit department (DExEU).
Delivered, apparently, while Raab C. Brexit was answering questions in the Commons. =
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Old 07-24-2018, 10:30 AM   #256 (permalink)
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WHY ARE THEY STILL TRYING TO MAKE IT HAPPEN?
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Old 07-24-2018, 10:32 AM   #257 (permalink)
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Ah, time for the blue handled shivs again, I see:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...b0af35eb777978



Delivered, apparently, while Raab C. Brexit was answering questions in the Commons. =

Raab C. Brexit may be the best politician nickname ever.
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Old 07-24-2018, 11:47 AM   #258 (permalink)
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WHY ARE THEY STILL TRYING TO MAKE IT HAPPEN?
Maybe they want to try and outdo what we did in electing the orange one?
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Old 07-24-2018, 11:54 AM   #259 (permalink)
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WHY ARE THEY STILL TRYING TO MAKE IT HAPPEN?

Because there will finally be blue British passports again after Brexit.
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Old 07-24-2018, 12:41 PM   #260 (permalink)
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WHY ARE THEY STILL TRYING TO MAKE IT HAPPEN?
Because politics, and in particular the internal politics of the Conservative Party, who have been deeply divided over the EU for the last 30-odd years. That's what put a welcome end to Margaret Thatcher's rule, and it's what crippled John Major's tenure in office.

Cameron rashly called the referendum in the hope it would enable him to shut up his party's critics of the EU by giving him the result he expected. It didn't, and we're living with the consequences. One of those consequences is that if Theresa May pulls the plug on the process, her party will split -- possibly irrevocably -- and put the Conservatives, or what's left of them, back in opposition for another 20 years or so. That's not an outcome she wants, obviously. It may well be unavoidable, but if it does happen, then she, quite understandably, doesn't want to be the one who gets the blame.

At present, it looks to me as if she's gradually trying to force her hardline Brexiteers to be the ones who pull the plug by joining with Labour to vote against (for different reasons) the final agreement she and the EU manage to come up with, which will be the softest of all possible Brexits. Forget the White Paper -- she and the Cabinet Office must know that there's no possibility the EU will accept the government's current negotiating position, but that's not the point. Her problem was to get her cabinet and backbench MPs to accept it, and now she and her cabinet have to sell (if they can) the concessions they make to the EU side of the negotiations.

Eventually, either we end up with agreement to terms pretty much dictated by the EU, or the government collapses, there's a change of administration, and things get put on hold while everyone tries to work out what happens next (I can't believe the EU would raise any serious objections if Jeremy Corbyn, assuming he's the new PM, revoked the Article 50 notification -- possibly because most of the Parliamentary Labour Party were holding gun to his head at the time).

However, Theresa May seems to be doing her best to ensure that, if and when that happens, it's going to be her Brexiteer rebels who are seen to be responsible for the debacle, not her.
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Old 07-24-2018, 01:22 PM   #261 (permalink)
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In the end they will blame the EU for everything, because the EU is not willing to obey their wishes.
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Old 07-24-2018, 01:50 PM   #262 (permalink)
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In the end they will blame the EU for everything, because the EU is not willing to obey their wishes.
I think that, so long as the hard-line Brexit enthusiasts are blaming the EU from their new home in UKIP or wherever rather than from the back benches of the Conservative Party, most Conservative MPs will be able to live with that.
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Old 07-25-2018, 05:33 AM   #263 (permalink)
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Because there will finally be blue British passports again after Brexit.
Which they will learn soon enough because suddenly more people will need one.
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Old 07-25-2018, 08:44 AM   #264 (permalink)
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I think that, so long as the hard-line Brexit enthusiasts are blaming the EU from their new home in UKIP or wherever rather than from the back benches of the Conservative Party, most Conservative MPs will be able to live with that.
The beauty of it is they can fight each other until the government collapses and make Labour pull the plug on Brexit then spend the next 30 years campaigning on how the lefties and the EU destroyed their beautiful dream of a free Britain.
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Old 07-25-2018, 09:25 AM   #265 (permalink)
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The beauty of it is thry can fight each other until the government collapses and make Labour pull the plug on Brexit then spend the next 30 years campaigning on how the lefties and the EU destroyed their beautiful dream of a free Britain.
Sort of like how Ludendorff and Hindenburg convinced Wilhelm II to resign so they could blame the socialists for losing WW1.
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Old 07-25-2018, 09:51 AM   #266 (permalink)
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The beauty of it is thry can fight each other until the government collapses and make Labour pull the plug on Brexit then spend the next 30 years campaigning on how the lefties and the EU destroyed their beautiful dream of a free Britain.
As David Allen Green points out in his Jack of Kent blog today,
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Brexit did not have to be done this way. As I have contended elsewhere Brexit could have been done in a sensible way, but it would have taken years and in slow stages.

This would have meant, of course, that Brexit had to be taken seriously.

But few of those in favour of Brexit, either in politics or in the media, take Brexit seriously.

Instead we had short-term headlines and claps and cheers at every unforced error by the government.

So we now have warnings of food and medicine shortages – and from those who not long ago dismissed any concerns as “project fear”.
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Old 07-25-2018, 10:09 AM   #267 (permalink)
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Tory MEP wants supporting the EU to be treason.


Yay.



Maybe now I will be able to get political asylum in the EU which will solve my whole can't get an EU passport issue.
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Old 07-26-2018, 06:03 AM   #268 (permalink)
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Tory MEP wants supporting the EU to be treason.


Yay.



Maybe now I will be able to get political asylum in the EU which will solve my whole can't get an EU passport issue.
I am just waiting for us to get something similar. I need an excuse to move to Finland.
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Old 07-26-2018, 07:21 AM   #269 (permalink)
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If Brexit isn't treason I don't know what is.
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Old 07-26-2018, 12:46 PM   #270 (permalink)
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So, turns out Ms May's Excellent Plan.. isn't worth the paper it's printed on. Who'd have guessed?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...toms-proposals

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While Raab insisted that with “political will” a deal on trade and on avoiding a border on the island of Ireland was achievable by a crunch summit in October, Barnier offered a damning verdict on a major element of the UK’s vision of the future.

To avoid customs checks after Brexit, the government wants an unprecedented system, where the UK would collect EU duties, while having the freedom to set different tariffs on goods destined for the British market.

The plan would allow the UK to make its own free trade deals around the world, while not losing the benefits of frictionless trade to and from the rest of Europe.

But echoing the language of Theresa May on her goals for Brexit, Barnier, responded: “Maintaining control of our money, law and borders also applies to the EU customs policy. The EU cannot and will not delegate the application of its customs policy and rules, VAT and duty collection to a non-member who would not be subject to the EU governance structures.

“Any customs arrangements or customs union – and I have always said that the EU is open to a customs union – must respect this principle.”
I'm liking the photo of Barnier delivering said rebuttal to Raab:

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Old 07-26-2018, 01:23 PM   #271 (permalink)
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Old 07-28-2018, 08:01 AM   #272 (permalink)
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Old 07-28-2018, 08:16 AM   #273 (permalink)
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Diabetia?
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Old 07-29-2018, 06:55 PM   #274 (permalink)
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Quite a long article on just how disastrous "no deal" would be, particularly with respect to food supply:

This is what no-deal Brexit actually looks like

It's well worth reading, as it goes through the whole "if this, then how about we do this? Ah, but then there's this.." chain of reasoning.
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Old 07-29-2018, 09:39 PM   #275 (permalink)
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Quite a long article on just how disastrous "no deal" would be, particularly with respect to food supply:

This is what no-deal Brexit actually looks like

It's well worth reading, as it goes through the whole "if this, then how about we do this? Ah, but then there's this.." chain of reasoning.
Simple solution, just have the entire country become vegetarians.
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