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Old 01-09-2017, 10:46 AM   #1 (permalink)
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The Dunning-Kruger President

Why Donald Trump Will Be the Dunning-Kruger President -- Science of Us

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The Dunning-Kruger effect, as it came to be known, was an immediate hit with armchair psychologists: Everyone knows someone they could diagnose as too dumb to even know it. Eighteen years later, the concept has achieved a kind of steady virality online, not only because the internet’s atmosphere — “an incredible Wild West of misinformation,” as Dunning puts it — has made it possible for anyone to posture as an expert, but because it is the preferred platform for people to call one another idiots. As a quick search of Twitter reveals, Dunning-Kruger is invoked nearly every day by people arguing against each other’s intelligence. (Sample dialogue from October: “Said like a true deluded simpleton Dunning-Kruger!” “You are the one suffering Dunning-Kruger!”) A usage that Dunning finds “unfortunate, and ironic,” as it indicates a misunderstanding of the effect. “We weren’t talking about ‘them out there’ being incompetent. We were talking about how each of us is incompetent,” he said. “Dunning-Kruger should cause people to reflect on themselves, not to throw epitaphs at others.”
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Old 01-09-2017, 10:54 AM   #2 (permalink)
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“Dunning-Kruger should cause people to reflect on themselves, not to throw epitaphs at others.”
Great. Now I have to more carefully consider my own intelligence shortcomings because we have a 10 year old as a president? No thanks, Dunning.
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Old 01-09-2017, 11:55 AM   #3 (permalink)
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Great. Now I have to more carefully consider my own intelligence shortcomings because we have a 10 year old as a president? No thanks, Dunning.
Thought of both agreeing and disagreeing.
Actually, yeah, we DO have to consider our own deficits because we misunderstood just how many people would vote for such a flawed candidate.
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Old 01-09-2017, 12:11 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Of course it was an immediate hit. It's a term for something that occurs. If the author wants us to use another term for it, maybe she could suggest one.
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Old 01-09-2017, 01:29 PM   #5 (permalink)
But it refused. <3

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Originally Posted by Ashiri View Post
Thought of both agreeing and disagreeing.
Actually, yeah, we DO have to consider our own deficits because we misunderstood just how many people would vote for such a flawed candidate.
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Old 01-09-2017, 01:41 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Epithets, not epitaphs. Or was he making his point by subtle example?
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Old 01-09-2017, 03:48 PM   #7 (permalink)
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My favorite was someone who referred to Bitcoins as "Dunning-Krugerrands".
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Old 01-09-2017, 06:47 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Argent Stonecutter View Post
My favorite was someone who referred to Bitcoins as "Dunning-Krugerrands".
Bitcoins are approaching the price of gold:

Gold = $1182/oz

Bitcoin = $896/BTC
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Old 01-09-2017, 07:26 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Err...?

I thought part of the DK effect also relied on misappropriation of confidence from both ends of the scale meaning that while individuals often grossly overestimate their own confidence on an issue individuals who are grossly overqualified tend to misdiagnose both their own abilities and misappropriate tasks based on what they see as being easy for everyone.

Based on that alone, surely they should have recognized this was a matter of course?
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Old 01-10-2017, 01:17 AM   #10 (permalink)
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Everyone knows someone they could diagnose as too dumb to even know it.
Can one diagnose an entire country?
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Old 01-10-2017, 02:20 AM   #11 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DanielRavenNest View Post
Bitcoins are approaching the price of gold:

Gold = $1182/oz

Bitcoin = $896/BTC
There's a lot wrong with that logic. Only one of them has mass.
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Old 01-10-2017, 06:19 AM   #12 (permalink)
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Bubbles tend to be pretty lightweight, so that's appropriate.
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Old 01-10-2017, 10:45 AM   #13 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Govi View Post
There's a lot wrong with that logic. Only one of them has mass.
value isn't predicated on mass. If you don't believe me, try living in the dark.
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Old 01-10-2017, 03:11 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Consider the units; gold's value is based on demand versus supply per unit mass; bitcoin's is based on demand versus supply for an elaborate cross-checked bookkeeping entry.
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Old 01-10-2017, 03:14 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Photons have relativistic mass.
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Old 01-10-2017, 04:04 PM   #16 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DanielRavenNest View Post
Bitcoins are approaching the price of gold:

Gold = $1182/oz

Bitcoin = $896/BTC
They're approaching the value of coal, too, for a particular quantity of a particular type of coal.

Wouldn't a more useful comparison be between the value of an ounce of gold in USD vs a Bitcoin in USD over a particular period of time?
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Old 01-10-2017, 05:10 PM   #17 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Argent Stonecutter View Post
Photons have relativistic mass.
that's not mass and you know it, that's force equivalent to mass provided by a moving reference frame. otherwise cars would weigh more when moving too = P

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Originally Posted by Govi View Post
Consider the units; gold's value is based on demand versus supply per unit mass; bitcoin's is based on demand versus supply for an elaborate cross-checked bookkeeping entry.
correction on both, "per unit available". and actually, unlike gold, BTC has a fixed max quantity (as well as a fixed lower limit for subdivision)*

but all the argument over mass completely misses the point, seeing as you don't actually GET gold when you invest on it. you get a virtual representation of it's value. At best that's a piece of paper, at worse it's a line in an electronic ledger... they are both measured in units of available quantity. but please, try and redeem your gold certificates for actual gold = D

*You could argue that the scaling comparison is off, since there are an estimated 5.5B ounces in estimated reserves, vs BTC's max of 21M, which means that there ~262.26oz of gold for the same percentage of total reserves as a single bitcoin.... which means that realistically, it's not anywhere near the value of gold as a matter of course.
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Old 01-10-2017, 05:24 PM   #18 (permalink)
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that's not mass and you know it, that's force equivalent to mass provided by a moving reference frame. otherwise cars would weigh more when moving too = P
Cars do have more mass when moving.
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Old 01-10-2017, 05:30 PM   #19 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Void View Post
but all the argument over mass completely misses the point, seeing as you don't actually GET gold when you invest on it. you get a virtual representation of it's value. At best that's a piece of paper, at worse it's a line in an electronic ledger... they are both measured in units of available quantity. but please, try and redeem your gold certificates for actual gold = D
In the UK you can certainly buy both gold coins and gold bullion, though you then have the problem of storing it securely. I don't know, but I suspect that's how most private investors do buy it.

On of the main attractions of gold is that it's pretty much universally acceptable and, in the quantities most people are likely to possess it, easily portable.
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Old 01-10-2017, 06:49 PM   #20 (permalink)
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Eh, Prince had 67 ten-ounce gold bars squirreled away. I personally know people who also own a decent amount of actual gold, though not as much as Prince did. I even have a small amount, in my SD box, which belonged to my parents.
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Old 01-10-2017, 07:23 PM   #21 (permalink)
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There's a lot wrong with that logic. Only one of them has mass.
The Bitcoin Network has plenty of mass, and consumes a good number of MW of power. Bitcoins are useless without the Network, because there would be no way to move them from person to person. They cannot be understood properly without understanding the network they are part of.

Gold has a separate existence whether or not humans are using it. My desktop PC, which I sometimes run as a bitcoin network node, and used to run as a bitcoin miner, also has a separate existence as a physical artifact. Both gold and my PC have value assigned to them by people, based on their usefulness. So does the Bitcoin Network. "Owning some bitcoins" just means you have a claim on using part of the network. Whether that has value to you will depend on who you are. Value is subjective, and varies from person to person.
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Old 01-10-2017, 07:30 PM   #22 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Govi View Post
Consider the units; gold's value is based on demand versus supply per unit mass; bitcoin's is based on demand versus supply for an elaborate cross-checked bookkeeping entry.
This is incorrect. The bitcoin accounting token's value is based on demand vs supply to use the Bitcoin Network to transfer value from place to place. The Network performs a similar function to bank wires or Western Union. It's usefulness depends on speed, fees, etc. when compared to the alternatives. Since the only way to use the network is to have some of the tokens, demand for the former creates demand for the latter.
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Old 01-10-2017, 07:41 PM   #23 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Innula Zenovka View Post
They're approaching the value of coal, too, for a particular quantity of a particular type of coal.

Wouldn't a more useful comparison be between the value of an ounce of gold in USD vs a Bitcoin in USD over a particular period of time?
On May 22, 2010, the first real-world bitcoin transaction happened, exchanging 10,000 BTC for two Papa John pizzas, establishing a market value of $0.003/BTC. Gold was approximately $1200/oz at that time. The current values are in my previous post.

The value of bitcoin has appreciated much faster because the usefulness of the whole bitcoin ecosystem has increased dramatically. In 2010 there were no smartphone apps, no merchants who accepted the coins, no exchanges where you could buy and sell them, etc. People built the software and businesses, making it more useful. That created demand for the coins, and due to relatively fixed supply, their price went up.

The usefulness of gold for its various purposes hasn't changed much in seven years, and neither has the price.
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Old 01-10-2017, 08:17 PM   #24 (permalink)
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Cars do have more mass when moving.
No, it still has exactly the same resistance to acceleration, the same effect from gravitational force exerted upon it, and even if you want to move beyond newtonian physics, it can only appear to gain mass, from an external moving reference frame, which coincidentally, from it's own reference frame everything else appears to have gained mass (the same as described by time dilation). you don't gain mass when you bounce on a bathroom scale either... you gain momentum relative to the scale
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Old 01-11-2017, 01:15 AM   #25 (permalink)
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Isn't this about assigned value and hence, our knowledge of rarity? We wouldn't even realize the rarity, if say, we were otters trying to break open a mollusk's shell with the nearest available object that fit the purpose? It could be made of pure gold, but it would still be the same tool (and hold the same value) to them.
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