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Old 11-05-2015, 04:50 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Lindex - this is weird - no?

I go to place a limit order on the Lindex and see

Sell
L$248 / US$1.00 L$273,279,464


Buy
L$258 / US$1.00 L$15,709,752

as the two column leads; these quantity amounts used to be well matched through the years as I recall

With such weak demand why isn't the exchange rate falling...... [ edit well rising I guess-- lots more lindens per dollar]

Last edited by Nan; 11-05-2015 at 05:00 AM.
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Old 11-06-2015, 06:57 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Yeah I posted about this, and that it would happen again and got laughed at and disagreed with. So yeah, it's happening. I already gave the reasons in another thread.

edit: And it's been pushed back up to 41M on the buy side (thanks, LL!). But the reasons are a combination of many factors, namely the removal of the 3rd party exchanges, the cut down of skill gaming (which funny enough the lab themselves are now trying to bring back), and the general treatment of customers over the years making SL a much more poor platform for running a business than it used to be. When you don't value your 500+ region holders, or your customers who are pushing $50,000+ USD a month through the lindex, they are going to abandon your ship.
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Old 11-07-2015, 08:23 AM   #3 (permalink)
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Yeah I posted about this, and that it would happen again and got laughed at and disagreed with. So yeah, it's happening. ...
The thing is, it's unclear what is happening. If it were really some macro problem of demand, the L$ should collapse, not merely move with only the very smallest possible, barely perceptible change. No market has ever been so perfectly balanced that it can slide just 0.004 in one move and then settle at that new level for months, as the L$ has done.

For this kind of stability, the rate simply must be actively managed -- and I'd be very surprised if the Lab is intervening in the Lindex on the buy side. That is to say, I think Supply Linden must be placing sell orders aplenty to keep the rate from recovering that tiny bit it lost back in August. I just have no idea why.
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Old 11-07-2015, 09:31 AM   #4 (permalink)
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For this kind of stability, the rate simply must be actively managed -- and I'd be very surprised if the Lab is intervening in the Lindex on the buy side. That is to say, I think Supply Linden must be placing sell orders aplenty to keep the rate from recovering that tiny bit it lost back in August. I just have no idea why.
I think you are on spot with LL placing sell orders themselfs. I witnessed some sudden increases in available L$ in steps of 10 million each lately. Once three of those within one hour. And I have no idea why either. I mean, is a one point step really worth intervening?
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Old 11-07-2015, 11:33 AM   #5 (permalink)
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Confused, why would Linden be placing SELL orders , seems like tons of people want to cash OUT and few want to buy IN.

Is is taking longer to cash out? Who is buying up the unwanted Lindens ?
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Old 11-07-2015, 02:34 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Confused, why would Linden be placing SELL orders , seems like tons of people want to cash OUT and few want to buy IN.

Is is taking longer to cash out? Who is buying up the unwanted Lindens ?
They've always placed sell orders, to keep the L$ from getting too dear in terms of RL currencies. (Why would the L$ appreciate like that? Because built-in "sinks" such as upload fees apparently exceed built-in "sources" such as stipends -- and apparently by a healthy margin.) The great mystery here is why they apparently moved their selling point by L$1 back in August.

There could certainly some day be too many private sell orders for the demand -- but when / if that happens for real, the exchange rate would climb a lot more than L$1, and a lot more chaotically -- a "run on the bank" so to speak -- unless the Lab intervened to stabilize by buying L$s, as well as selling. I just don't think they'd ever do that.

On the other hand, it would not at all surprise me if they move the exchange rate again soon -- it's been about one calendar quarter, right? -- by undercutting all the private sellers by one L$ again.

Or not, since we have no clue why they did it a quarter ago, assuming that's indeed what happened.
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Old 01-22-2016, 12:06 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Looks like unless some buy orders get placed here soon, 250 is about to become the next 249 and 249 is about to become the next 248.

Sell:

L$249 / US$1.00 L$190,215
L$248 / US$1.00 L$278,893,515

Buy:

L$258 / US$1.00 L$4,823,480
L$259 / US$1.00 L$215,000
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Old 01-22-2016, 12:22 PM   #8 (permalink)
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190k available? Nah, that's not cause for concern. It could easily be one person's sell order. I sell once a week in those kind of amounts, as do many other merchants, land barons, etc. If it sits for hours, then worry, but mine always clears in 10 minutes at the most.
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Old 01-22-2016, 12:35 PM   #9 (permalink)
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No, there's 4.8M buy available (down to 4.2M now). If that gets wiped out the L$ will automatically lose value as it goes to 259, 260, etc. That in turn effects the sell orders and the 278M on 248 will start to move to 249 as people cancel and resubmit their orders.
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Old 01-22-2016, 12:38 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Oh noes! My 1/4th of a penny!
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Old 01-22-2016, 04:46 PM   #11 (permalink)
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It's actually about 1/2 a penny. Laugh all you want about it. But the more this happens, the more weak it becomes, people who use second life for their RL business or just for additional income are going to get less for it and raise in world prices more for it. Your $72 a year for premium now gives you less back in stipend. When 247 was the "wait and sell" number you could get $63.15 a year in stipend. Now when 249 is it, you'll get $62.65. It wouldn't surprise me if this trend continues into the 251, 252, 253 range uploads will start running L$11 and mesh upload costs will increase in costs.

It has a negative effect for everyone (Edit: except buyers of linden, obviously, but I was more referring to the people who actually make SL -work-, the creators).

Buys:

L$258 / US$1.00 L$627,489
L$259 / US$1.00 L$215,000
L$260 / US$1.00 L$4,376,500
L$261 / US$1.00 L$10,017,500

Last edited by axiom; 01-22-2016 at 04:53 PM.
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Old 01-22-2016, 05:28 PM   #12 (permalink)
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I cash out several thousands of dollars per month. I've been doing it for over 9 years now. I sell at what I feel comfortable with, and if I lose USD $4 for every $1k I cash out, I can live with that. Simply because if it sells in 30 minutes, it's better than waiting a week for a sale. That's how supply and demand works. Yeah, I'm part of the problem, but $4 is worth not waiting a week. Ever since LL stepped in and stabilized the L$ when things got hairy back in... 2010(?), the L$ has been relatively stable since.

At the very most it's gone down 1 L$ per year since, more realistically half of that. So stop chicken-little-ing.
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Old 01-22-2016, 06:36 PM   #13 (permalink)
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I'm not talking about the difference between waiting and a 30 minute sale, I'm talking about the value of the L$, in general, dropping.

I'm not chicken-little-ing. It was 248 for the "instant sale" for 3+ years, and now its 249 and it's close to being 250. The original point of me bumping this post, was to point that out for people who are interested in it that the L$ is about to lose value again. Not for people like you who "herp-derp 1/4th a penny, who cares"! Your comment wasn't even relevant to this thread. If you don't care what you sell at then good for you, don't comment. My bump on this thread wasn't intended for people like you. It was intended for people who are interested in when the L$ loses value, and why.
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Old 01-22-2016, 07:57 PM   #14 (permalink)
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L$ is more stable in value than any other RL currency i know. All other types of money goes yo-yo quite a lot.


Now whether that is healthy for LL , that stabilizes the currency, i don't know, but i suppose that it's better than scaring the people who seem to think RL money is somehow stable in value.
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Old 01-23-2016, 01:03 AM   #15 (permalink)
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My bump on this thread wasn't intended for people like you. It was intended for people who are interested in when the L$ loses value, and why.
The funny thing about forums is, you can't declare who a post is for. It's for everyone to read. I am pretty sure other people value my succinct "Oh noes" post just as much as your post.

The linden going down less than a penny over 2 years is no big deal, don't sweat it. It was bound to happen.
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Old 01-23-2016, 03:54 AM   #16 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Qie Niangao View Post
The thing is, it's unclear what is happening. If it were really some macro problem of demand, the L$ should collapse, not merely move with only the very smallest possible, barely perceptible change. No market has ever been so perfectly balanced that it can slide just 0.004 in one move and then settle at that new level for months, as the L$ has done.

For this kind of stability, the rate simply must be actively managed -- and I'd be very surprised if the Lab is intervening in the Lindex on the buy side. That is to say, I think Supply Linden must be placing sell orders aplenty to keep the rate from recovering that tiny bit it lost back in August. I just have no idea why.
I think most would agree that the rate is actively managed by Linden selling $L.

However, they can oversell it. It was exactly this sort of thinning of demand on the buy side that allowed many of us to expect the June 2010 crash of the $L value in advance by several weeks. As they can't stabilise a rate by selling $L, when not enough people are buying. Especially when the stabilisation mechanism (selling $L) slowly but surely increases the platform's money supply, which is a great way to devalue a currency. Shortly after the last crash is when the company let go of roughly 100 employees. I'm pretty sure they couldn't reliably sell much $L at all for many months after, and that was during a time when the grid was substantially larger than now, landwise and I daresay, economically too.

One assumption might be that they are buying back $L to keep the entire exchange (and thus their flagship product) from getting into serious trouble. Which is entirely possible, but can only go so far, as it's roughly equivalent to giving large amounts of money away.

Depends on the amounts. Spending say, 100,000 USD now and then to put roughly $L 25M on the buy side, to stabilise a multimillion dollar company could be seen as rational. But if the sell side has 250M (as of this moment it's well over that), we are talking roughly a million USD of instability built up.

As I write this, the buy side is as follows:

258: 8,870,551
259: 5,697,582
260: 8,247,500
261: 10,017,500
262: 18,508
263: 42,551
264: 25,036
265: 615,849
266: 0
267: 31,000
268: 10,500
269: 43,000
270: 334,528
271: 19,000
272: 10,000
273: 4,000
... and so forth.

Of course, the market is dynamic and there are circuit breakers on trading, but from the above data at that moment, it would take a mere 127k USD to crash the $L rate to 264. After that, just another 3000 USD to crash it to 270. From there, just another 3000 USD to crash it to 278. If that sounds like a lot of money, remember that typical trading volumes are on the order of 300k to 400k USD, and can easily vary by something like 30% a day. Normally.

Doubtless they would halt trading and intervene again, but the point is, there are the same fundamentals at play as there always have been. Currency stabilisation by selling $L relies on significant levels of demand. If that demand has some sudden volatility, it could be a very bumpy ride. For short term stuff, I would presume Linden would do the rational thing and stabilise the $L by spending lots of money to buy back the oversupply.

But nobody here (and maybe not even Linden themselves) knows how far they will go to keep $L users from significant financial exposure. Hopefully we don't ever find out. We are basically counting on the idea that the company learned from its 2010 mistake, and won't ever mess up again.

On a side note, if they ever open up another platform using $L, that new shiny platform could potentially drive up $L demand significantly, at least for a while.
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Old 01-23-2016, 04:08 AM   #17 (permalink)
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Honestly though, I am just ahppy I get money from sl at all. It can help with bills some times. And student loans are not cheap.
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Old 01-24-2016, 01:38 AM   #18 (permalink)
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I just had a 248 sell order filled within 6 days, which seems to be the "normal" time since Oct/Nov last year, so I don't see another change coming right now (and no reason to panic just yet, lol). Sale volume always seems to be in the range between 240-280 million, I would get worried if it jumped over the 300 million mark.

I really would like people to get a bit more patient and just set for sale at (right now) 248 and just wait those 6 days instead of "jumping the line" and setting for sale at 249. Everybody would get a tiny bit more real money for their L$, and as we say here: he who doesn't honor the penny doesn't deserve the dollar. I know that for some the sale is time sensitive, but I'm sure not for all.
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Old 01-24-2016, 04:49 AM   #19 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Nan View Post
Sell
L$248 / US$1.00 L$273,279,464
Buy
L$258 / US$1.00 L$15,709,752
Maybe, just a guess, the problem is not really on these numbers. Just three months ago i explained to someone who is in Second Life quite experienced, not a new user, that he should not simply "buy" but that he would have to use https://secondlife.com/my/lindex/buy.php#limitBuy
That somehow never occurred to him even as option and so all the years he purchased L$ right away and his L$ requests most likely never appeared even in the above mentioned queue.
That those, who cash out are more interested in the options, more so even if they make a living from SL, is natural as much more depends on that for them as for the occasional gamer who blows 20 USD in here per week/month.
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Old 01-25-2016, 04:35 PM   #20 (permalink)
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It was intended for people who are interested in when the L$ loses value, and why.

Actually, i partially take back what i said about L$ stability. It's tied to the dollar value, so for those that use dollar as their main currency, it's exactly as stable as their RL money. For the rest of us, the L$ fluctuates in value about the same as the dollar does. That movement is much more significant, and some have experienced up to a quarter of the dollar value rise, and drop during SL's lifetime. This sometimes reflects in pricing of goods the creators sell.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Desmond Shang View Post

One assumption might be that they are buying back $L to keep the entire exchange (and thus their flagship product) from getting into serious trouble. Which is entirely possible, but can only go so far, as it's roughly equivalent to giving large amounts of money away.

.
I would say that it's not really giving money away, it's subsidizing those that withdraw money = mostly content creators. That money in turn comes from people who pay for the land product. Content is necessary for the land product, or else the land product becomes obsolete, so the monetary incentive to create quality content seems needed.
This leads me to believe that money is shifted so land owners both directly and indirectly support content creators.

It sounds like this balance will be shifted in Sansar, where land owners will be taxed less for content creation, and creators will be taxed more. We'll see though.
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Old 01-25-2016, 04:55 PM   #21 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Daniel Regenbogen View Post
I just had a 248 sell order filled within 6 days, which seems to be the "normal" time since Oct/Nov last year, so I don't see another change coming right now (and no reason to panic just yet, lol). Sale volume always seems to be in the range between 240-280 million, I would get worried if it jumped over the 300 million mark.

I really would like people to get a bit more patient and just set for sale at (right now) 248 and just wait those 6 days instead of "jumping the line" and setting for sale at 249. Everybody would get a tiny bit more real money for their L$, and as we say here: he who doesn't honor the penny doesn't deserve the dollar. I know that for some the sale is time sensitive, but I'm sure not for all.
Time IS money. You might not value those six days, but not everyone can afford to wait, even if they plan ahead sufficiently. The cashout process is already slow enough (an additional 5-7 days, plus whatever time it takes to cash out of Paypal).

I can remember a time when the exchange was more in the 277-280L/USD range. 248/249 is a far cry from that. I am more than happy to pay a little extra to not waste my time waiting for the bulk of my income to come in and have to coordinate with other cashout times/scheduling conflicts.
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Old 01-25-2016, 05:01 PM   #22 (permalink)
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I would say that it's not really giving money away, it's subsidizing those that withdraw money = mostly content creators.
Maybe I'm confused, but I think those who deal in land products are at least as active in exchanging L$ for US$ (to pay tier and estate fees), and hence equally dependent on a stable L$.

As long as tier and estate fees are US$ denominated, it's really crucial to folks with L$ income from land that the L$ is pegged to the US$, regardless of what that means in other RL currencies.

Still, if I were managing LL's finances, I'd be mighty nervous about spending real money to prop-up the game currency, and extremely eager to sell back any L$s bought in such a program.
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Old 01-25-2016, 05:03 PM   #23 (permalink)
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Old 01-25-2016, 10:53 PM   #24 (permalink)
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That somehow never occurred to him even as option and so all the years he purchased L$ right away and his L$ requests most likely never appeared even in the above mentioned queue.
That those, who cash out are more interested in the options, more so even if they make a living from SL, is natural as much more depends on that for them as for the occasional gamer who blows 20 USD in here per week/month.
Actually it does. It just sells for market rate, which is really a bad deal, but the buy goes through practically instantly. If you refresh the lindex a lot, you'll see the occasional buy or sell order 10-12 L$ off from normals.

Edit:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Daniel Regenbogen View Post
I really would like people to get a bit more patient and just set for sale at (right now) 248 and just wait those 6 days instead of "jumping the line" and setting for sale at 249. Everybody would get a tiny bit more real money for their L$, and as we say here: he who doesn't honor the penny doesn't deserve the dollar. I know that for some the sale is time sensitive, but I'm sure not for all.
I agree with this wholeheartedly. I understand people sometimes can't wait but really, you get more and it adds up, especially when you're selling 10 million+ a month. Time is money, sure, but in those cases you're earning 200-300 USD more by selling at 248.
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Old 04-12-2016, 04:57 AM   #25 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Daniel Regenbogen View Post
I just had a 248 sell order filled within 6 days, which seems to be the "normal" time since Oct/Nov last year, so I don't see another change coming right now (and no reason to panic just yet, lol). Sale volume always seems to be in the range between 240-280 million, I would get worried if it jumped over the 300 million mark.
I wonder if you've started worrying, since it's now over the 300 million mark and seems to be staying there, with a good volume at 249 (55,111,345). It looks like 250 might become the new quick sale. I sold at 248 a few of weeks ago and it took 6 days. I wouldn't even attempt that now.
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