Lindex - this is weird - no? - Page 2 - SLUniverse Forums
Navigation » SLUniverse Forums > Virtual World Discussion > General SL Discussion » Lindex - this is weird - no?


General SL Discussion Discuss topics related to Second Life

 
Sponsor:
LIONHEART - We Have Your Land
Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 04-12-2016, 05:10 AM   #26 (permalink)
Junior Member
me ^
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by axiom View Post
Actually it does. It just sells for market rate, which is really a bad deal, but the buy goes through practically instantly. If you refresh the lindex a lot, you'll see the occasional buy or sell order 10-12 L$ off from normals.
The market Buy rate is a bad deal at 239 -240, when people are selling at 249. I do wonder if most people buy at market (within the viewer) or place at limit buy orders at 249.

I really don't know where you're seeing 'the occasional buy or sell order 10-12 L$ off from normals'. When I refresh the Lindex I only see an increase or decrease in volume at the top level - 249 atm.

Last edited by Rya Nitely; 04-12-2016 at 05:13 AM. Reason: spelling
Rya Nitely is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-12-2016, 05:29 AM   #27 (permalink)
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 133
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rya Nitely View Post
I wonder if you've started worrying, since it's now over the 300 million mark and seems to be staying there, with a good volume at 249 (55,111,345). It looks like 250 might become the new quick sale. I sold at 248 a few of weeks ago and it took 6 days. I wouldn't even attempt that now.
I'm not really happy right now and yes, a bit worried. Though there *might* be a good reason for a temp flood of the Lindex with L$ for sale: region owner selling more than normal to cover the fee to down buy their regions. In that case, the situation should normalize within a couple of weeks, but only time will tell.
Daniel Regenbogen is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-12-2016, 05:39 AM   #28 (permalink)
Nan
Senior Member
 
Nan's Avatar
"I feel like SL but BETTER"
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 975
My Mood:
Seems odd to me that Buys at 259 aren't filled .

Different topic; same subject: worried. The Linden land auction has no new posts ; they stop at the noon sale today.
Nan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-12-2016, 05:43 AM   #29 (permalink)
Junior Member
me ^
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 24
I hope it does normalize, because I'm a bit worried too, especially being right after the fee increase. I haven't noticed sell orders at 250 so often before.
Rya Nitely is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-12-2016, 05:51 AM   #30 (permalink)
Junior Member
me ^
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nan View Post
Seems odd to me that Buys at 259 aren't filled .

Different topic; same subject: worried. The Linden land auction has no new posts ; they stop at the noon sale today.
That will only get filled if someone sells at market and not at limit. That would not be smart. It takes an inexperienced seller to do that. Why would you sell 259 Lindens for $1 when they can sell 249 for $1, and save L10.
Rya Nitely is offline   Reply With Quote
1 User Agreed:
Old 04-12-2016, 10:35 AM   #31 (permalink)
Nan
Senior Member
 
Nan's Avatar
"I feel like SL but BETTER"
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 975
My Mood:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rya Nitely View Post
That will only get filled if someone sells at market and not at limit. That would not be smart. It takes an inexperienced seller to do that. Why would you sell 259 Lindens for $1 when they can sell 249 for $1, and save L10.
Oh, so the buyers at 259 are waiting for folks who buy in the quick window, or non-smarts?

But we've always had the 10 ish spread between the buy/sell bubbles on either side ....
Nan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-12-2016, 11:39 AM   #32 (permalink)
Lady of the House
 
Cristalle's Avatar
Hopeful
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 2,514
My Mood:
SL Join Date: December 1, 2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nan View Post
Oh, so the buyers at 259 are waiting for folks who buy in the quick window, or non-smarts?

But we've always had the 10 ish spread between the buy/sell bubbles on either side ....
Basically, yes. That, or Supply Linden.
Cristalle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-13-2016, 01:35 AM   #33 (permalink)
Junior Member
me ^
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nan View Post
Oh, so the buyers at 259 are waiting for folks who buy in the quick window, or non-smarts?

But we've always had the 10 ish spread between the buy/sell bubbles on either side ....
These buyers are waiting for people to sell at 259 (at market). Remember, that the Linden Exchange is set at basic as a default, where you don't see the market. Inexperienced sellers may not even be aware of limit orders and would sell at market price.

There would be many more people who buy at market. Most people probably just hit buy in the viewer and end up with 239 or 240 Lindens/$.

I'm not sure why the 10ish spread. Perhaps Supply Linden sets walls on both sides, currently 259 on the buy side and 248 on the sell side. So, if a wall is set at 259, buyers would place a limit order at 258 with no need to go lower.

What I'm curious about is the market buy price, which is 239 - 240 Lindens for $1. Why isn't this 249 - 250?

If everyone bought Lindens at limit rather than at market I wonder what effect that would have. There would be many more people placing orders on the buy side, hence pushing it towards the 249 sell price and closing that gap.

There is actually a 20 Linden spread between the at market buy/sell, from 239L to 259L.
Rya Nitely is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-13-2016, 02:04 AM   #34 (permalink)
Junior Member
me ^
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 24
There is one thing that confuses people about the Lindex. People understand the concept of selling high and buying low, but with the LindeX you want to reverse that thinking with the numbers. You are selling/buying a set amount of Lindens for one dollar.

240 lindens for a dollar is a good sell price
259 lindens for a dollar is a good buy price
Rya Nitely is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-13-2016, 09:35 AM   #35 (permalink)
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 2,915
SL Join Date: September 2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rya Nitely View Post
I'm not sure why the 10ish spread.
When the market was functioning as a market, the spread was slightly larger than the 3.5% transaction fee. How much larger it was than the fee depended on how little profit traders were willing to take for their risk. The lower the spread you bid, the faster your trades go through and the lower your risk, but you make little profit. The higher the spread you bid, the more profit you make, at a higher risk (slower trades, the market may never move enough for you to get your money out).

Quote:
Perhaps Supply Linden sets walls on both sides, currently 259 on the buy side and 248 on the sell side. So, if a wall is set at 259, buyers would place a limit order at 258 with no need to go lower.
I believe this is exactly what has been happening for quite a while. I believe most of the money in the "market" is LL's, in these walls that prevent the market from moving. If it moves, it's because LL wants it to move, and they do so by moving their wall. If the L$ has devalued by 1 recently, it's because that's what LL wants.

Quote:
What I'm curious about is the market buy price, which is 239 - 240 Lindens for $1. Why isn't this 249 - 250?
1) It prevents you from getting better-than-exchange rates by stalling during the checkout process while the market is moving. Of course the market doesn't move anymore, so this is no longer an issue, but the coding is still there.

2) It's possible the in-viewer rate is obtained in an unsophisticated, laggy, disconnected-from-the-market way that requires a gap so that you don't get better-than-exchange rates in the viewer. It's even possible that it's set manually.

3) It makes LL more money. They could tighten up the gap, now that the market doesn't move, but why would they?

Last edited by Anya Ristow; 04-13-2016 at 09:44 AM.
Anya Ristow is offline   Reply With Quote
2 Users Agreed:
Old 04-14-2016, 04:21 AM   #36 (permalink)
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 2,915
SL Join Date: September 2006
Here's something else that's weird about the Lindex. This is trading volume, according to Tyche Shepherd's Grid Survey.

Does anyone believe the Lindex trading volume is essentially the same as it was in 2009?

Anya Ristow is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-14-2016, 09:36 PM   #37 (permalink)
nāgī
 
Selinica's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 1,319
My Mood:
SL Join Date: 09/13/2012
Client: Catznip, Lumiya
Quote:
Originally Posted by Anya Ristow View Post
Here's something else that's weird about the Lindex. This is trading volume, according to Tyche Shepherd's Grid Survey.

Does anyone believe the Lindex trading volume is essentially the same as it was in 2009?

Check both scales though, the volume of L$ has remained fairly stable while the Transactions has increased over time.
So, it looks like roughly the same volume of L$ is flowing through but spread over a greater number of smaller transactions.
__________________
:3~~< PBBBT :3~~<
Selinica is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-15-2016, 02:10 AM   #38 (permalink)
Guvnah of Caledon
 
Desmond Shang's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Caledon
Posts: 3,558
Quote:
Originally Posted by Anya Ristow View Post
Does anyone believe the Lindex trading volume is essentially the same as it was in 2009?
I do.

The better question might be... what was the real consumer fraction of that trading volume, as opposed to the Lindens themselves, platform investors, arbitrageurs, and just flat out crazy people. Lindex has essentially been a black box since... if I recall correctly, approximately fall 2010. Around that time, tens of millions of $L appeared on both the buy and sell sides.

Very tempting to ascribe that sudden change to the Lindex to the Lindens themselves, but I'm not so sure. We could be seeing Linden monetary policy. Or we could be seeing a multibillionaire investor simply 'playing' with the Lindex in a largely benevolent way. Maybe, flushing a million bucks in Lindex fees over a long time, might be worth it. If it significantly props up company share value. We really don't have a clear picture here. All that said, I'm not sure if it would be easy to distinguish good and proper 'monetary policy' from... something else. The act of Linden 'printing and selling $L' is both a 'pro and a con' insofar as it stabilises the exchange rate (good) but also competes with Linden's own customers (not that good).

It's all shades of grey... it's possible that Linden could oversell $L thus hurting its customers (and ultimately by default, themselves). Or they could not sell or sink $L at all, let the $L unpeg from the dollar and leave customers to fend for themselves in a roiling $L market. Which is exactly what it was like ten years ago; I'm not sure many people would want to return to those levels of uncertainty.

Also possible Linden is trying to raise cash in a hurry, or their CEO is on a contract and needing to show some numbers, or who knows what. But I'm not seeing catastrophe around the corner. Orderly devaluation of $L by a bit, in and of itself isn't scary. If the rates significantly fluctuate: 248... 249... 250... 249... 248... over the course of days then I'd be a wee bit concerned. To me that would be a signal that the forces regulating the $L are significantly weakened, raising the question of where the $L might go (and how fast). But it's hard to say. On the other hand, averaging 16.3% on an investment across ten years (for instance) might also seem bedrock stable, when in fact it may be a sign that something is truly amiss... there's such a thing as 'too good to be true.'

What would really worry me, would be 'absolute calm on the lindex' just after 1) a significant cashout fee increase, and 2) a major tier reduction announcement. A few ripples right now, make sense.

* * * * *

Based upon what I see on the markets however, I am going to take action.

From today forward through Q2 2016, I'm taking it easy on the 18 year old Macallan, and generally reaching for the 12 year old Glen Moray for a while. If anyone wants to take *that* as a market signal, be my guest... at your own risk of course.
Desmond Shang is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-15-2016, 02:34 AM   #39 (permalink)
Pluviophile
 
Chip Midnight's Avatar
Meshing Around
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 11,451
My Mood:
Business: CMFF
At this rate the L$ will be completely worthless... in about 50 years.
Chip Midnight is offline   Reply With Quote
1 User Agreed:
Old 04-15-2016, 04:42 PM   #40 (permalink)
Coin-operated
 
Qie Niangao's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 2,018
Quote:
Originally Posted by Desmond Shang View Post
Orderly devaluation of $L by a bit, in and of itself isn't scary.
Not that it matters, but: the L$ remaining stable against the US$ has meant a significant gain in its value against a market basket of world currencies in recent years. That doesn't mean any change in Lindex rate is to correct for that effect, nor would any such "correction" really be a good idea, at least as long as tier and estate fees are US$-denominated.
Qie Niangao is offline   Reply With Quote
3 Users Agreed:
Old 04-28-2016, 06:37 PM   #41 (permalink)
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 310
My Mood:
We're going for another ride!

Code:
Open Sell Orders at the Best 20 Rates
Exchange Rate	Total Remaining Quantity
L$249 / US$1.00	L$241,709,681
L$248 / US$1.00	L$121,277,404
L$247 / US$1.00	L$14,265,410
L$246 / US$1.00	L$8,688,274

Open Buy Orders at the Best 20 Rates
Exchange Rate	Total Remaining Quantity
L$259 / US$1.00	L$35,000
L$260 / US$1.00	L$1,577,061
L$261 / US$1.00	L$26,622,323
L$262 / US$1.00	L$8,508
axiom is offline   Reply With Quote
2 Users Agreed:
Old 05-18-2016, 01:28 PM   #42 (permalink)
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 310
My Mood:
Whoo we're still riding the L$ is losing value wave~~~

Code:
Open Sell Orders at the Best 20 Rates
Exchange Rate	Total Remaining Quantity
L$253 / US$1.00	L$4,415
L$252 / US$1.00	L$2,572,006
L$251 / US$1.00	L$128,355,240
L$250 / US$1.00	L$164,336,066
L$249 / US$1.00	L$63,187,558
L$248 / US$1.00	L$49,980,073
L$247 / US$1.00	L$16,360,473
L$246 / US$1.00	L$8,448,974
L$245 / US$1.00	L$41,783,809

Open Buy Orders at the Best 20 Rates
Exchange Rate	Total Remaining Quantity
L$262 / US$1.00	L$935,573
L$263 / US$1.00	L$42,551
L$264 / US$1.00	L$25,036
L$265 / US$1.00	L$10,736,476
L$267 / US$1.00	L$36,500
L$268 / US$1.00	L$11,070
L$269 / US$1.00	L$48,000
L$270 / US$1.00	L$387,179
L$271 / US$1.00	L$19,000
axiom is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-18-2016, 03:59 PM   #43 (permalink)
I am the Script Police!

*SLU Supporter*
 
NeoBokrug Elytis's Avatar
post_count++;
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 2,097
My Mood:
SL Join Date: 11/01/2005
Business: The Wastelands
Client: Official Newest
It's all due to the Region Buy Down offer.
__________________
NeoBokrug Elytis is offline   Reply With Quote
3 Users Agreed:
Old 05-18-2016, 06:52 PM   #44 (permalink)
Nan
Senior Member
 
Nan's Avatar
"I feel like SL but BETTER"
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 975
My Mood:
So, ALL those buy orders were filled -- grid should be awash in cash BUT i hear store sales down, breedables down , folks not making tier for first time in years ..... so where did all the filled order money go?

I would expect estates that operate on the edge to go under when they have to cash out and get less.... sure not renting now unless from a major player .

What will end this slide ? My next purchase bid is going in at 270 L per dollar : why bid close to a sliding market price ; leapfrog
Nan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-18-2016, 08:50 PM   #45 (permalink)
Senior Member
super advanced spam bot (now with added rabies!)
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 415
My Mood:
I know a few store owners and all I have talked to recently say the same. Sales are waaaaay down, even considering the time of year. I know one guy who normally makes 3-500USD per month (so he says). This month he made 42 so far. He is considering dropping his inworld store.

I believe there is more to this than just the buy-down.

Last edited by Issa Heckroth; 05-18-2016 at 09:05 PM.
Issa Heckroth is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-18-2016, 09:06 PM   #46 (permalink)
I am the Script Police!

*SLU Supporter*
 
NeoBokrug Elytis's Avatar
post_count++;
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 2,097
My Mood:
SL Join Date: 11/01/2005
Business: The Wastelands
Client: Official Newest
It's also what I refer to as the end of the "spring-summer slump". Where the weather is nicer and people leave their PCs behind for pleasant weather reasons. It'll pick back up, always does.
NeoBokrug Elytis is offline   Reply With Quote
4 Users Agreed:
Old 05-18-2016, 10:21 PM   #47 (permalink)
Ginger Supremacist
 
Ramen Jedburgh's Avatar
Heya ^_^
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Illinois, USA
Posts: 4,847
My Mood:
SL Join Date: 3/9/2006
Client: Firestorm
I don't know if it's related but I see tons of land for sale in my area.



The sky is falling?
__________________
--
Ramen Jedburgh

http://allaroundthegrid.blogspot.com/
Ramen Jedburgh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-19-2016, 03:00 AM   #48 (permalink)
Senior Member
super advanced spam bot (now with added rabies!)
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 415
My Mood:
I think Sansar might be compounding everything.
Issa Heckroth is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-19-2016, 03:20 AM   #49 (permalink)
Clueless Beginner
 
Y.T.'s Avatar
---
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 419
Business: Animare
FWIW and to calm down the "sky is falling" people:
i have three businesses, all three of very different character. Two sales, one land-business (small fry)
In all three the situation is stable. Not breathtaking developing upwards, but stable. Running fine.
Y.T. is offline   Reply With Quote
2 Users Said Thanks :
2 Users Agreed:
Old 05-19-2016, 05:43 AM   #50 (permalink)
Senior Member
super advanced spam bot (now with added rabies!)
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 415
My Mood:
Not claiming the sky is falling personally. Just that the economy seems to be particularly depressed for a number of people that I have chatted to between April and May.

As a consumer, I am definitely not making as many large purchases as I used to. Partly because of nice weather and partly because of Sansar being on the horizon. I am saving up for the massive shopping spree I will go on

Nice to hear things are stable for you though Y.T.
Issa Heckroth is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On




SEO by vBSEO